Given a graph in which a few vertices are deemed interesting a priori, the vertex nomination task is to order the remaining vertices into a nomination list such that there is a concentration of interesting vertices at the top of the list. Previous work has yielded several approaches to this problem, with theoretical results in the setting where the graph is drawn from a stochastic block model (SBM), including a vertex nomination analogue of the Bayes optimal classifier. In this paper, we prove that maximum likelihood (ML)-based vertex nomination is consistent, in the sense that the performance of the ML-based scheme asymptotically matches that of the Bayes optimal scheme. We prove theorems of this form both when model parameters are known and unknown. Additionally, we introduce and prove consistency of a related, more scalable restricted-focus ML vertex nomination scheme. Finally, we incorporate vertex and edge features into ML-based vertex nomination and briefly explore the empirical effectiveness of this approach.

We present a unified approach for learning the parameters of Sum-Product networks (SPNs). We prove that any complete and decomposable SPN is equivalent to a mixture of trees where each tree corresponds to a product of univariate distributions. Based on the mixture model perspective, we characterize the objective function when learning SPNs based on the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) principle and show that the optimization problem can be formulated as a signomial program. We construct two parameter learning algorithms for SPNs by using sequential monomial approximations (SMA) and the concave-convex procedure (CCCP), respectively. The two proposed methods naturally admit multiplicative updates, hence effectively avoiding the projection operation. With the help of the unified framework, we also show that, in the case of SPNs, CCCP leads to the same algorithm as Expectation Maximization (EM) despite the fact that they are different in general.

Expectation Maximization (EM) is among the most popular algorithms for estimating parameters of statistical models. However, EM, which is an iterative algorithm based on the maximum likelihood principle, is generally only guaranteed to find stationary points of the likelihood objective, and these points may be far from any maximizer. This article addresses this disconnect between the statistical principles behind EM and its algorithmic properties. Specifically, it provides a global analysis of EM for specific models in which the observations comprise an i.i.d. sample from a mixture of two Gaussians. This is achieved by (i) studying the sequence of parameters from idealized execution of EM in the infinite sample limit, and fully characterizing the limit points of the sequence in terms of the initial parameters; and then (ii) based on this convergence analysis, establishing statistical consistency (or lack thereof) for the actual sequence of parameters produced by EM.

Anomaly detection plays an important role in modern data-driven security applications, such as detecting suspicious access to a socket from a process. In many cases, such events can be described as a collection of categorical values that are considered as entities of different types, which we call heterogeneous categorical events. Due to the lack of intrinsic distance measures among entities, and the exponentially large event space, most existing work relies heavily on heuristics to calculate abnormal scores for events. Different from previous work, we propose a principled and unified probabilistic model APE (Anomaly detection via Probabilistic pairwise interaction and Entity embedding) that directly models the likelihood of events. In this model, we embed entities into a common latent space using their observed co-occurrence in different events. More specifically, we first model the compatibility of each pair of entities according to their embeddings. Then we utilize the weighted pairwise interactions of different entity types to define the event probability. Using Noise-Contrastive Estimation with "context-dependent" noise distribution, our model can be learned efficiently regardless of the large event space. Experimental results on real enterprise surveillance data show that our methods can accurately detect abnormal events compared to other state-of-the-art abnormal detection techniques.

In this paper, a novel multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) methodology is presented for assessing and prioritizing medical tourism destinations in uncertain environment. A systematic evaluation and assessment method is proposed by integrating rough number based AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and rough number based MABAC (Multi-Attributive Border Approximation area Comparison). Rough number is used to aggregate individual judgments and preferences to deal with vagueness in decision making due to limited data. Rough AHP analyzes the relative importance of criteria based on their preferences given by experts. Rough MABAC evaluates the alternative sites based on the criteria weights. The proposed methodology is explained through a case study considering different cities for healthcare service in India. The validity of the obtained ranking for the given decision making problem is established by testing criteria proposed by Wang and Triantaphyllou (2008) along with further analysis and discussion.

We derive fundamental sample complexity bounds for recovering sparse and structured signals for linear and nonlinear observation models including sparse regression, group testing, multivariate regression and problems with missing features. In general, sparse signal processing problems can be characterized in terms of the following Markovian property. We are given a set of $N$ variables $X_1,X_2,\ldots,X_N$, and there is an unknown subset of variables $S \subset \{1,\ldots,N\}$ that are relevant for predicting outcomes $Y$. More specifically, when $Y$ is conditioned on $\{X_n\}_{n\in S}$ it is conditionally independent of the other variables, $\{X_n\}_{n \not \in S}$. Our goal is to identify the set $S$ from samples of the variables $X$ and the associated outcomes $Y$. We characterize this problem as a version of the noisy channel coding problem. Using asymptotic information theoretic analyses, we establish mutual information formulas that provide sufficient and necessary conditions on the number of samples required to successfully recover the salient variables. These mutual information expressions unify conditions for both linear and nonlinear observations. We then compute sample complexity bounds for the aforementioned models, based on the mutual information expressions in order to demonstrate the applicability and flexibility of our results in general sparse signal processing models.

The aim of this paper is to provide some theoretical understanding of Bayesian non-negative matrix factorization methods. We derive an oracle inequality for a quasi-Bayesian estimator. This result holds for a very general class of prior distributions and shows how the prior affects the rate of convergence. We illustrate our theoretical results with a short numerical study along with a discussion on existing implementations.

We introduce a new criterion to determine the order of an autoregressive model fitted to time series data. It has the benefits of the two well-known model selection techniques, the Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian information criterion. When the data is generated from a finite order autoregression, the Bayesian information criterion is known to be consistent, and so is the new criterion. When the true order is infinity or suitably high with respect to the sample size, the Akaike information criterion is known to be efficient in the sense that its prediction performance is asymptotically equivalent to the best offered by the candidate models; in this case, the new criterion behaves in a similar manner. Different from the two classical criteria, the proposed criterion adaptively achieves either consistency or efficiency depending on the underlying true model. In practice where the observed time series is given without any prior information about the model specification, the proposed order selection criterion is more flexible and robust compared with classical approaches. Numerical results are presented demonstrating the adaptivity of the proposed technique when applied to various datasets.

It always amazes me how I can hear a statement uttered in the space of a few seconds about some aspect of machine learning that then takes me countless hours to understand. I first heard about Gaussian Processes on an episode of the Talking Machines podcast and thought it sounded like a really neat idea. I promptly procured myself a copy of the classic text on the subject, Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning by Rasmussen and Williams, but my tenuous grasp on the Bayesian approach to machine learning meant I got stumped pretty quickly. That's when I began the journey I described in my last post, From both sides now: the math of linear regression. Gaussian Processes (GPs) are the natural next step in that journey as they provide an alternative approach to regression problems.

To construct flexible nonlinear predictive distributions, the paper introduces a family of softplus function based regression models that convolve, stack, or combine both operations by convolving countably infinite stacked gamma distributions, whose scales depend on the covariates. Generalizing logistic regression that uses a single hyperplane to partition the covariate space into two halves, softplus regressions employ multiple hyperplanes to construct a confined space, related to a single convex polytope defined by the intersection of multiple half-spaces or a union of multiple convex polytopes, to separate one class from the other. The gamma process is introduced to support the convolution of countably infinite (stacked) covariate-dependent gamma distributions. For Bayesian inference, Gibbs sampling derived via novel data augmentation and marginalization techniques is used to deconvolve and/or demix the highly complex nonlinear predictive distribution. Example results demonstrate that softplus regressions provide flexible nonlinear decision boundaries, achieving classification accuracies comparable to that of kernel support vector machine while requiring significant less computation for out-of-sample prediction.