We propose a data-driven, coarse-graining formulation in the context of equilibrium statistical mechanics. In contrast to existing techniques which are based on a fine-to-coarse map, we adopt the opposite strategy by prescribing a probabilistic coarse-to-fine map. This corresponds to a directed probabilistic model where the coarse variables play the role of latent generators of the fine scale (all-atom) data. From an information-theoretic perspective, the framework proposed provides an improvement upon the relative entropy method and is capable of quantifying the uncertainty due to the information loss that unavoidably takes place during the CG process. Furthermore, it can be readily extended to a fully Bayesian model where various sources of uncertainties are reflected in the posterior of the model parameters. The latter can be used to produce not only point estimates of fine-scale reconstructions or macroscopic observables, but more importantly, predictive posterior distributions on these quantities. Predictive posterior distributions reflect the confidence of the model as a function of the amount of data and the level of coarse-graining. The issues of model complexity and model selection are seamlessly addressed by employing a hierarchical prior that favors the discovery of sparse solutions, revealing the most prominent features in the coarse-grained model. A flexible and parallelizable Monte Carlo - Expectation-Maximization (MC-EM) scheme is proposed for carrying out inference and learning tasks. A comparative assessment of the proposed methodology is presented for a lattice spin system and the SPC/E water model.

The author has performed an excellent job in explaining the fundamental ideas and practical methods of different AI techniques. AI problems in the field ( pattern recognition, speech and image processing, classification, planning, optimization, control, time-series and analogy-based prediction, diagnosis, decision making and game simulations) are discussed and illustrated with examples . Especially useful are the comparisons between different techniques (AI rule Cbased methods, fuzzy methods, connectionist methods, and hybrid systems for knowledge engineering) used to solve the same or similar problems. The presented text is suitable for advanced undergraduate and postgraduate students as well as a reference for researchers in the field of knowledge engineering.The book¡ s appendices summarize data sets for the examples in the book. All data sets are available through anonymous FTP.

By building on a recently introduced genetic-inspired attribute-based conceptual framework for safety risk analysis, we propose a novel methodology to compute construction univariate and bivariate construction safety risk at a situational level. Our fully data-driven approach provides construction practitioners and academicians with an easy and automated way of extracting valuable empirical insights from databases of unstructured textual injury reports. By applying our methodology on an attribute and outcome dataset directly obtained from 814 injury reports, we show that the frequency-magnitude distribution of construction safety risk is very similar to that of natural phenomena such as precipitation or earthquakes. Motivated by this observation, and drawing on state-of-the-art techniques in hydroclimatology and insurance, we introduce univariate and bivariate nonparametric stochastic safety risk generators, based on Kernel Density Estimators and Copulas. These generators enable the user to produce large numbers of synthetic safety risk values faithfully to the original data, allowing safetyrelated decision-making under uncertainty to be grounded on extensive empirical evidence. Just like the accurate modeling and simulation of natural phenomena such as wind or streamflow is indispensable to successful structure dimensioning or water reservoir management, we posit that improving construction safety calls for the accurate modeling, simulation, and assessment of safety risk. The underlying assumption is that like natural phenomena, construction safety may benefit from being studied in an empirical and quantitative way rather than qualitatively which is the current industry standard. Finally, a side but interesting finding is that attributes related to high energy levels and to human error emerge as strong risk shapers on the dataset we used to illustrate our methodology.

With the scale of data growing every day, reducing the dimensionality (a.k.a. sketching) of high-dimensional data has emerged as a task of paramount importance. Relevant issues to address in this context include the sheer volume of data that may consist of categorical samples, the typically streaming format of acquisition, and the possibly missing entries. To cope with these challenges, the present paper develops a novel categorical subspace learning approach to unravel the latent structure for three prominent categorical (bilinear) models, namely, Probit, Tobit, and Logit. The deterministic Probit and Tobit models treat data as quantized values of an analog-valued process lying in a low-dimensional subspace, while the probabilistic Logit model relies on low dimensionality of the data log-likelihood ratios. Leveraging the low intrinsic dimensionality of the sought models, a rank regularized maximum-likelihood estimator is devised, which is then solved recursively via alternating majorization-minimization to sketch high-dimensional categorical data `on the fly.' The resultant procedure alternates between sketching the new incomplete datum and refining the latent subspace, leading to lightweight first-order algorithms with highly parallelizable tasks per iteration. As an extra degree of freedom, the quantization thresholds are also learned jointly along with the subspace to enhance the predictive power of the sought models. Performance of the subspace iterates is analyzed for both infinite and finite data streams, where for the former asymptotic convergence to the stationary point set of the batch estimator is established, while for the latter sublinear regret bounds are derived for the empirical cost. Simulated tests with both synthetic and real-world datasets corroborate the merits of the novel schemes for real-time movie recommendation and chess-game classification.

Monte Carlo (MC) methods are widely used for Bayesian inference and optimization in statistics, signal processing and machine learning. A well-known class of MC methods are Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In order to foster better exploration of the state space, specially in high-dimensional applications, several schemes employing multiple parallel MCMC chains have been recently introduced. In this work, we describe a novel parallel interacting MCMC scheme, called {\it orthogonal MCMC} (O-MCMC), where a set of "vertical" parallel MCMC chains share information using some "horizontal" MCMC techniques working on the entire population of current states. More specifically, the vertical chains are led by random-walk proposals, whereas the horizontal MCMC techniques employ independent proposals, thus allowing an efficient combination of global exploration and local approximation. The interaction is contained in these horizontal iterations. Within the analysis of different implementations of O-MCMC, novel schemes in order to reduce the overall computational cost of parallel multiple try Metropolis (MTM) chains are also presented. Furthermore, a modified version of O-MCMC for optimization is provided by considering parallel simulated annealing (SA) algorithms. Numerical results show the advantages of the proposed sampling scheme in terms of efficiency in the estimation, as well as robustness in terms of independence with respect to initial values and the choice of the parameters.

In this letter, a Hierarchical Parametric Empirical Bayes model is proposed to model spike count data. We have integrated Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) and empirical Bayes theory to simultaneously provide three advantages: (1) a model of over-dispersion of spike count values; (2) reduced MSE in estimation when compared to using the maximum likelihood method for GLMs; and (3) an efficient alternative to inference with fully Bayes estimators. We apply the model to study both simulated data and experimental neural data from the retina. The simulation results indicate that the new model can estimate both the weights of connections among neural populations and the output firing rates (mean spike count) efficiently and accurately. The results from the retinal datasets show that the proposed model outperforms both standard Poisson and Negative Binomial GLMs in terms of the prediction log-likelihood of held-out datasets.

A big challenge in environmental monitoring is the spatiotemporal variation of the phenomena to be observed. To enable persistent sensing and estimation in such a setting, it is beneficial to have a time-varying underlying environmental model. Here we present a planning and learning method that enables an autonomous marine vehicle to perform persistent ocean monitoring tasks by learning and refining an environmental model. To alleviate the computational bottleneck caused by large-scale data accumulated, we propose a framework that iterates between a planning component aimed at collecting the most information-rich data, and a sparse Gaussian Process learning component where the environmental model and hyperparameters are learned online by taking advantage of only a subset of data that provides the greatest contribution. Our simulations with ground-truth ocean data shows that the proposed method is both accurate and efficient.

The multivariate normal density is a monotonic function of the distance to the mean, and its ellipsoidal shape is due to the underlying Euclidean metric. We suggest to replace this metric with a locally adaptive, smoothly changing (Riemannian) metric that favors regions of high local density. The resulting locally adaptive normal distribution (LAND) is a generalization of the normal distribution to the "manifold" setting, where data is assumed to lie near a potentially low-dimensional manifold embedded in $\mathbb{R}^D$. The LAND is parametric, depending only on a mean and a covariance, and is the maximum entropy distribution under the given metric. The underlying metric is, however, non-parametric. We develop a maximum likelihood algorithm to infer the distribution parameters that relies on a combination of gradient descent and Monte Carlo integration. We further extend the LAND to mixture models, and provide the corresponding EM algorithm. We demonstrate the efficiency of the LAND to fit non-trivial probability distributions over both synthetic data, and EEG measurements of human sleep.

Mixture models and topic models generate each observation from a single cluster, but standard variational posteriors for each observation assign positive probability to all possible clusters. This requires dense storage and runtime costs that scale with the total number of clusters, even though typically only a few clusters have significant posterior mass for any data point. We propose a constrained family of sparse variational distributions that allow at most $L$ non-zero entries, where the tunable threshold $L$ trades off speed for accuracy. Previous sparse approximations have used hard assignments ($L=1$), but we find that moderate values of $L>1$ provide superior performance. Our approach easily integrates with stochastic or incremental optimization algorithms to scale to millions of examples. Experiments training mixture models of image patches and topic models for news articles show that our approach produces better-quality models in far less time than baseline methods.

Last summer, I was at a conference having lunch with Hal Daume III when we got to talking about how "Bayesian" can be a funny and ambiguous term. It seems like the definition should be straightforward: "following the work of English mathematician Rev. Thomas Bayes," perhaps, or even "uses Bayes' theorem." But many methods bearing the reverend's name or using his theorem aren't even considered "Bayesian" by his most religious followers. Why is it that Bayesian networks, for example, aren't considered… y'know… Bayesian? As I've read more outside the fields of machine learning and natural language processing -- from psychometrics and environmental biology to hackers who dabble in data science -- I've noticed three broad uses of the term "Bayesian."