Mechanical design and manufacturing workflows conventionally begin with conceptual design, followed by the creation of a computer-aided design (CAD) model and fabrication through material-extrusion (MEX) printing. This process requires converting CAD geometry into machine-readable G-code through slicing and path planning. While each step is well established, dependence on CAD modeling remains a major bottleneck: constructing object-specific 3D geometry is slow and poorly suited to rapid prototyping. Even minor design variations typically necessitate manual updates in CAD software, making iteration time-consuming and difficult to scale. To address this limitation, we introduce Image2Gcode, an end-to-end data-driven framework that bypasses the CAD stage and generates printer-ready G-code directly from images and part drawings. Instead of relying on an explicit 3D model, a hand-drawn or captured 2D image serves as the sole input. The framework first extracts slice-wise structural cues from the image and then employs a denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) over G-code sequences. Through iterative denoising, the model transforms Gaussian noise into executable print-move trajectories with corresponding extrusion parameters, establishing a direct mapping from visual input to native toolpaths. By producing structured G-code directly from 2D imagery, Image2Gcode eliminates the need for CAD or STL intermediates, lowering the entry barrier for additive manufacturing and accelerating the design-to-fabrication cycle. This approach supports on-demand prototyping from simple sketches or visual references and integrates with upstream 2D-to-3D reconstruction modules to enable an automated pipeline from concept to physical artifact. The result is a flexible, computationally efficient framework that advances accessibility in design iteration, repair workflows, and distributed manufacturing.

We present a general approach to visualizing uncertainty in static 2-D statistical graphics. If we treat a visualization as a function of its underlying quantities, uncertainty in those quantities induces a distribution over images. We show how to aggregate these images into a single visualization that represents the uncertainty. The approach can be viewed as a generalization of sample-based approaches that use overlay. Notably, standard representations, such as confidence intervals and bands, emerge with their usual coverage guarantees without being explicitly quantified or visualized. As a proof of concept, we implement our approach in the IID setting using resampling, provided as an open-source Python library. Because the approach operates directly on images, the user needs only to supply the data and the code for visualizing the quantities of interest without uncertainty. Through several examples, we show how both familiar and novel forms of uncertainty visualization can be created. The implementation is not only a practical validation of the underlying theory but also an immediately usable tool that can complement existing uncertainty-visualization libraries.

Verifiers can improve language model capabilities by scoring and ranking responses from generated candidates. Currently, high-quality verifiers are either unscalable (e.g., humans) or limited in utility (e.g., tools like Lean). While LM judges and reward models have become broadly useful as general-purpose verifiers, a significant performance gap remains between them and oracle verifiers (verifiers with perfect accuracy). To help close this gap, we introduce Weaver, a framework for designing a strong verifier by combining multiple weak, imperfect verifiers. We find weighted ensembles of verifiers, which typically require learning from labeled data, significantly outperform unweighted combinations due to differences in verifier accuracies. To reduce dependency on labeled data, Weaver leverages weak supervision to estimate each verifier's accuracy and combines outputs into a unified score that better reflects true response quality. However, directly applying weak supervision algorithms poses challenges, including inconsistent verifier output formats and handling low-quality verifiers. Weaver addresses these using dataset statistics to normalize outputs and filter specific verifiers. We study Weaver's effectiveness in test-time repeated sampling, where a model generates multiple candidate responses and selects one. Our evaluations show Weaver significantly improves over Pass@1-performance when selecting the first candidate-across reasoning and math tasks, achieving o3-mini-level accuracy with Llama 3.3 70B Instruct as generator, and an ensemble of 70B or smaller judge and reward models as verifiers (87.7% average). This gain mirrors the jump between GPT-4o and o3-mini (69.0% vs. 86.7%), which required extensive finetuning and post-training. To reduce computational costs of verifier ensembles, we train a 400M cross-encoder using Weaver's combined output scores.

Estimation of the conditional independence graph (CIG) of high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian time series from multi-attribute data is considered. Existing methods for graph estimation for such data are based on single-attribute models where one associates a scalar time series with each node. In multi-attribute graphical models, each node represents a random vector or vector time series. In this paper we provide a unified theoretical analysis of multi-attribute graph learning for dependent time series using a penalized log-likelihood objective function formulated in the frequency domain using the discrete Fourier transform of the time-domain data. We consider both convex (sparse-group lasso) and non-convex (log-sum and SCAD group penalties) penalty/regularization functions. We establish sufficient conditions in a high-dimensional setting for consistency (convergence of the inverse power spectral density to true value in the Frobenius norm), local convexity when using non-convex penalties, and graph recovery. We do not impose any incoherence or irrepresentability condition for our convergence results. We also empirically investigate selection of the tuning parameters based on the Bayesian information criterion, and illustrate our approach using numerical examples utilizing both synthetic and real data.

Statistically correcting measured cross sections for detector effects is an important step across many applications. In particle physics, this inverse problem is known as \textit{unfolding}. In cases with complex instruments, the distortions they introduce are often known only implicitly through simulations of the detector. Modern machine learning has enabled efficient simulation-based approaches for unfolding high-dimensional data. Among these, one of the first methods successfully deployed on experimental data is the \textsc{OmniFold} algorithm, a classifier-based Expectation-Maximization procedure. In practice, however, the forward model is only approximately specified, and the corresponding uncertainty is encoded through nuisance parameters. Building on the well-studied \textsc{OmniFold} algorithm, we show how to extend machine learning-based unfolding to incorporate nuisance parameters. Our new algorithm, called Profile \textsc{OmniFold}, is demonstrated using a Gaussian example as well as a particle physics case study using simulated data from the CMS Experiment at the Large Hadron Collider.

Inverse reinforcement learning aims to infer the reward function that explains expert behavior observed through trajectories of state--action pairs. A long-standing difficulty in classical IRL is the non-uniqueness of the recovered reward: many reward functions can induce the same optimal policy, rendering the inverse problem ill-posed. In this paper, we develop a statistical framework for Inverse Entropy-regularized Reinforcement Learning that resolves this ambiguity by combining entropy regularization with a least-squares reconstruction of the reward from the soft Bellman residual. This combination yields a unique and well-defined so-called least-squares reward consistent with the expert policy. We model the expert demonstrations as a Markov chain with the invariant distribution defined by an unknown expert policy $π^\star$ and estimate the policy by a penalized maximum-likelihood procedure over a class of conditional distributions on the action space. We establish high-probability bounds for the excess Kullback--Leibler divergence between the estimated policy and the expert policy, accounting for statistical complexity through covering numbers of the policy class. These results lead to non-asymptotic minimax optimal convergence rates for the least-squares reward function, revealing the interplay between smoothing (entropy regularization), model complexity, and sample size. Our analysis bridges the gap between behavior cloning, inverse reinforcement learning, and modern statistical learning theory.

We develop a novel characterization of extremal dependence between two cortical regions of the brain when its signals display extremely large amplitudes. We show that connectivity in the tails of the distribution reveals unique features of extreme events (e.g., seizures) that can help to identify their occurrence. Numerous studies have established that connectivity-based features are effective for discriminating brain states. Here, we demonstrate the advantage of the proposed approach: that tail connectivity provides additional discriminatory power, enabling more accurate identification of extreme-related events and improved seizure risk management. Common approaches in tail dependence modeling use pairwise summary measures or parametric models. However, these approaches do not identify channels that drive the maximal tail dependence between two groups of signals -- an information that is useful when analyzing electroencephalography of epileptic patients where specific channels are responsible for seizure occurrences. A familiar approach in traditional signal processing is canonical correlation, which we extend to the tails to develop a visualization of extremal channel-contributions. Through the tail pairwise dependence matrix (TPDM), we develop a computationally-efficient estimator for our canonical tail dependence measure. Our method is then used for accurate frequency-based soft clustering of neonates, distinguishing those with seizures from those without.

Semi-supervised learning (SSL) constructs classifiers from datasets in which only a subset of observations is labelled, a situation that naturally arises because obtaining labels often requires expert judgement or costly manual effort. This motivates methods that integrate labelled and unlabelled data within a learning framework. Most SSL approaches assume that label absence is harmless, typically treated as missing completely at random or ignored, but in practice, the missingness process can be informative, as the chances of an observation being unlabelled may depend on the ambiguity of its feature vector. In such cases, the missingness indicators themselves provide additional information that, if properly modelled, may improve estimation efficiency. The \textbf{SSLfmm} package for R is designed to capture this behaviour by estimating the Bayes' classifier under a finite mixture model in which each component corresponding to a class follows a multivariate normal distribution. It incorporates a mixed-missingness mechanism that combines a missing completely at random (MCAR) component with a (non-ignorable) missing at random (MAR) component, the latter modelling the probability of label missingness as a logistic function of the entropy based on the features. Parameters are estimated via an Expectation--Conditional Maximisation algorithm. In the two-class Gaussian setting with arbitrary covariance matrices, the resulting classifier trained on partially labelled data may, in some cases, achieve a lower misclassification rate than the supervised version in the case where all the labels are known. The package includes a practical tool for modelling and illustrates its performance through simulated examples.

This Inaugural Lecture was given at Royal Holloway University of London in 1996. It covers an introduction to machine learning and describes various theoretical advances and practical projects in the field. The Lecture here is presented in its original format, but a few remarks have been added in 2025 to reflect recent developments, and the list of references has been updated to enhance the convenience and accuracy for readers. When did machine learning start? Maybe a good starting point is 1949, when Claude Shannon proposed a learning algorithm for chess-playing programs. Or maybe we should go back to the 1930s when Ronald Fisher developed discriminant analysis - a type of learning where the problem is to construct a decision rule that separates two types of vectors. Or could it be the 18th century when David Hume discussed the idea of induction? Or the 14th century, when William of Ockham formulated the principle of "simplicity" known as "Ockham's razor" (Ockham, by the way, is a small village not far from Royal Holloway). Or it may be that, like almost everything else in Western civilisation and culture, the origin of these ideas lies in the Mediterranean. After all, it was Aristotle who said that "we learn some things only by doing things". The field of machine learning has been greatly influenced by other disciplines and the subject is in itself not a very homogeneous discipline, but includes separate, overlapping subfields. There are many parallel lines of research in ML: inductive learning, neural networks, clustering, and theories of learning. They are all part of the more general field of machine learning.

We revisit the classic ski rental problem through the lens of Bayesian decision-making and machine-learned predictions. While traditional algorithms minimize worst-case cost without assumptions, and recent learning-augmented approaches leverage noisy forecasts with robustness guarantees, our work unifies these perspectives. We propose a discrete Bayesian framework that maintains exact posterior distributions over the time horizon, enabling principled uncertainty quantification and seamless incorporation of expert priors. Our algorithm achieves prior-dependent competitive guarantees and gracefully interpolates between worst-case and fully-informed settings. Our extensive experimental evaluation demonstrates superior empirical performance across diverse scenarios, achieving near-optimal results under accurate priors while maintaining robust worst-case guarantees. This framework naturally extends to incorporate multiple predictions, non-uniform priors, and contextual information, highlighting the practical advantages of Bayesian reasoning in online decision problems with imperfect predictions.