Reward augmented maximum likelihood (RAML), a simple and effective learning framework to directly optimize towards the reward function in structured prediction tasks, has led to a number of impressive empirical successes. RAML incorporates task-specific reward by performing maximum-likelihood updates on candidate outputs sampled according to an exponentiated payoff distribution, which gives higher probabilities to candidates that are close to the reference output. While RAML is notable for its simplicity, efficiency, and its impressive empirical successes, the theoretical properties of RAML, especially the behavior of the exponentiated payoff distribution, has not been examined thoroughly. In this work, we introduce softmax Q-distribution estimation, a novel theoretical interpretation of RAML, which reveals the relation between RAML and Bayesian decision theory. The softmax Q-distribution can be regarded as a smooth approximation of the Bayes decision boundary, and the Bayes decision rule is achieved by decoding with this Q-distribution. We further show that RAML is equivalent to approximately estimating the softmax Q-distribution, with the temperature $\tau$ controlling approximation error. We perform two experiments, one on synthetic data of multi-class classification and one on real data of image captioning, to demonstrate the relationship between RAML and the proposed softmax Q-distribution estimation method, verifying our theoretical analysis. Additional experiments on three structured prediction tasks with rewards defined on sequential (named entity recognition), tree-based (dependency parsing) and irregular (machine translation) structures show notable improvements over maximum likelihood baselines.

This work addresses the problem of segmentation in time series data with respect to a statistical parameter of interest in Bayesian models. It is common to assume that the parameters are distinct within each segment. As such, many Bayesian change point detection models do not exploit the segment parameter patterns, which can improve performance. This work proposes a Bayesian mean-shift change point detection algorithm that makes use of repetition in segment parameters, by introducing segment class labels that utilise a Dirichlet process prior. The performance of the proposed approach was assessed on both synthetic and real world data, highlighting the enhanced performance when using parameter labelling.

This paper examines fundamental error characteristics for a general class of matrix completion problems, where the matrix of interest is a product of two a priori unknown matrices, one of which is sparse, and the observations are noisy. Our main contributions come in the form of minimax lower bounds for the expected per-element squared error for this problem under under several common noise models. Specifically, we analyze scenarios where the corruptions are characterized by additive Gaussian noise or additive heavier-tailed (Laplace) noise, Poisson-distributed observations, and highly-quantized (e.g., one-bit) observations, as instances of our general result. Our results establish that the error bounds derived in (Soni et al., 2016) for complexity-regularized maximum likelihood estimators achieve, up to multiplicative constants and logarithmic factors, the minimax error rates in each of these noise scenarios, provided that the nominal number of observations is large enough, and the sparse factor has (on an average) at least one non-zero per column.

Many matching, tracking, sorting, and ranking problems require probabilistic reasoning about possible permutations, a set that grows factorially with dimension. Combinatorial optimization algorithms may enable efficient point estimation, but fully Bayesian inference poses a severe challenge in this high-dimensional, discrete space. To surmount this challenge, we start with the usual step of relaxing a discrete set (here, of permutation matrices) to its convex hull, which here is the Birkhoff polytope: the set of all doubly-stochastic matrices. We then introduce two novel transformations: first, an invertible and differentiable stick-breaking procedure that maps unconstrained space to the Birkhoff polytope; second, a map that rounds points toward the vertices of the polytope. Both transformations include a temperature parameter that, in the limit, concentrates the densities on permutation matrices. We then exploit these transformations and reparameterization gradients to introduce variational inference over permutation matrices, and we demonstrate its utility in a series of experiments.

The original problem of supervised classification considers the task of automatically assigning objects to their respective classes on the basis of numerical measurements derived from these objects. Classifiers are the tools that implement the actual functional mapping from these measurements---also called features or inputs---to the so-called class label---or output. The fields of pattern recognition and machine learning study ways of constructing such classifiers. The main idea behind supervised methods is that of learning from examples: given a number of example input-output relations, to what extent can the general mapping be learned that takes any new and unseen feature vector to its correct class? This chapter provides a basic introduction to the underlying ideas of how to come to a supervised classification problem. In addition, it provides an overview of some specific classification techniques, delves into the issues of object representation and classifier evaluation, and (very) briefly covers some variations on the basic supervised classification task that may also be of interest to the practitioner.

We consider the problem of accurately estimating the reliability of workers based on noisy labels they provide, which is a fundamental question in crowdsourcing. We propose a novel lower bound on the minimax estimation error which applies to any estimation procedure. We further propose Triangular Estimation (TE), an algorithm for estimating the reliability of workers. TE has low complexity, may be implemented in a streaming setting when labels are provided by workers in real time, and does not rely on an iterative procedure. We further prove that TE is minimax optimal and matches our lower bound. We conclude by assessing the performance of TE and other state-of-the-art algorithms on both synthetic and real-world data sets.

To survive environmental conditions, cells transcribe their response activities into encoded mRNA sequences in order to produce certain amounts of protein concentrations. The external conditions are mapped into the cell through the activation of special proteins called transcription factors (TFs). Due to the difficult task to measure experimentally TF behaviours, and the challenges to capture their quick-time dynamics, different types of models based on differential equations have been proposed. However, those approaches usually incur in costly procedures, and they present problems to describe sudden changes in TF regulators. In this paper, we present a switched dynamical latent force model for reverse-engineering transcriptional regulation in gene expression data which allows the exact inference over latent TF activities driving some observed gene expressions through a linear differential equation. To deal with discontinuities in the dynamics, we introduce an approach that switches between different TF activities and different dynamical systems. This creates a versatile representation of transcription networks that can capture discrete changes and non-linearities We evaluate our model on both simulated data and real-data (e.g. microaerobic shift in E. coli, yeast respiration), concluding that our framework allows for the fitting of the expression data while being able to infer continuous-time TF profiles.

We introduce the hierarchical compositional network (HCN), a directed generative model able to discover and disentangle, without supervision, the building blocks of a set of binary images. The building blocks are binary features defined hierarchically as a composition of some of the features in the layer immediately below, arranged in a particular manner. At a high level, HCN is similar to a sigmoid belief network with pooling. Inference and learning in HCN are very challenging and existing variational approximations do not work satisfactorily. A main contribution of this work is to show that both can be addressed using max-product message passing (MPMP) with a particular schedule (no EM required). Also, using MPMP as an inference engine for HCN makes new tasks simple: adding supervision information, classifying images, or performing inpainting all correspond to clamping some variables of the model to their known values and running MPMP on the rest. When used for classification, fast inference with HCN has exactly the same functional form as a convolutional neural network (CNN) with linear activations and binary weights. However, HCN's features are qualitatively very different.

Prediction is a fundamental and difficult scientific problem. We limit the scope of our discussion by imposing, from the outset, two restrictions: we only want to predict one real number y R, and we want our prediction to satisfy a reasonable property of validity (under a natural assumption). It can be argued that the fullest prediction for y is a probability measure on R, which can be represented by its distribution function: see, e.g., [5, 6, 8]. We will refer to it as the predictive distribution. A standard property of validity for predictive distributions is being well-calibrated.

We present a new model-based integrative method for clustering objects given both vectorial data, which describes the feature of each object, and network data, which indicates the similarity of connected objects. The proposed general model is able to cluster the two types of data simultaneously within one integrative probabilistic model, while traditional methods can only handle one data type or depend on transforming one data type to another. Bayesian inference of the clustering is conducted based on a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. A special case of the general model combining the Gaussian mixture model and the stochastic block model is extensively studied. We used both synthetic data and real data to evaluate this new method and compare it with alternative methods. The results show that our simultaneous clustering method performs much better. This improvement is due to the power of the model-based probabilistic approach for efficiently integrating information.