The extended model(s) can again be subjected to criticism, and the process continues until a satisfactory model is found (O'Hagan, 2003). Model criticism is contrasted with model comparison in that model criticism assesses a single model, while model comparison deals with at least two models to decide which model is a better fit. Model comparison can be applied to compare the original and the extended model after model criticism and extension (O'Hagan, 2003, p. 2). Most work on model criticism makes use of the idea that "if the model fits, then replicated data generated under the model should look similar to observed data" (Gelman et al., 2004, p. 165). In contrast, in this paper we focus on the idea that for latent variable models, we can probabilistically pull back the data into the space of the latent variables, and carry out model criticism in that space.

Generalized linear models (GLMs) -- such as logistic regression, Poisson regression, and robust regression -- provide interpretable models for diverse data types. Probabilistic approaches, particularly Bayesian ones, allow coherent estimates of uncertainty, incorporation of prior information, and sharing of power across experiments via hierarchical models. In practice, however, the approximate Bayesian methods necessary for inference have either failed to scale to large data sets or failed to provide theoretical guarantees on the quality of inference. We propose a new approach based on constructing polynomial approximate sufficient statistics for GLMs (PASS-GLM). We demonstrate that our method admits a simple algorithm as well as trivial streaming and distributed extensions that do not compound error across computations. We provide theoretical guarantees on the quality of point (MAP) estimates, the approximate posterior, and posterior mean and uncertainty estimates. We validate our approach empirically in the case of logistic regression using a quadratic approximation and show competitive performance with stochastic gradient descent, MCMC, and the Laplace approximation in terms of speed and multiple measures of accuracy -- including on an advertising data set with 40 million data points and 20,000 covariates.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are a good choice for function approximation as they are flexible, robust to over-fitting, and provide well-calibrated predictive uncertainty. Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multi-layer generalisations of GPs, but inference in these models has proved challenging. Existing approaches to inference in DGP models assume approximate posteriors that force independence between the layers, and do not work well in practice. We present a doubly stochastic variational inference algorithm, which does not force independence between layers. With our method of inference we demonstrate that a DGP model can be used effectively on data ranging in size from hundreds to a billion points. We provide strong empirical evidence that our inference scheme for DGPs works well in practice in both classification and regression.

Efficiently aggregating data from different sources is a challenging problem, particularly when samples from each source are distributed differently. These differences can be inherent to the inference task or present for other reasons: sensors in a sensor network may be placed far apart, affecting their individual measurements. Conversely, it is computationally advantageous to split Bayesian inference tasks across subsets of data, but data need not be identically distributed across subsets. One principled way to fuse probability distributions is via the lens of optimal transport: the Wasserstein barycenter is a single distribution that summarizes a collection of input measures while respecting their geometry. However, computing the barycenter scales poorly and requires discretization of all input distributions and the barycenter itself. Improving on this situation, we present a scalable, communication-efficient, parallel algorithm for computing the Wasserstein barycenter of arbitrary distributions. Our algorithm can operate directly on continuous input distributions and is optimized for streaming data. Our method is even robust to nonstationary input distributions and produces a barycenter estimate that tracks the input measures over time. The algorithm is semi-discrete, needing to discretize only the barycenter estimate. To the best of our knowledge, we also provide the first bounds on the quality of the approximate barycenter as the discretization becomes finer. Finally, we demonstrate the practical effectiveness of our method, both in tracking moving distributions on a sphere, as well as in a large-scale Bayesian inference task.

We investigate the use of alternative divergences to Kullback-Leibler (KL) in variational inference(VI), based on the Variational Dropout \cite{kingma2015}. Stochastic gradient variational Bayes (SGVB) \cite{aevb} is a general framework for estimating the evidence lower bound (ELBO) in Variational Bayes. In this work, we extend the SGVB estimator with using Alpha-Divergences, which are alternative to divergences to VI' KL objective. The Gaussian dropout can be seen as a local reparametrization trick of the SGVB objective. We extend the Variational Dropout to use alpha divergences for variational inference. Our results compare $\alpha$-divergence variational dropout with standard variational dropout with correlated and uncorrelated weight noise. We show that the $\alpha$-divergence with $\alpha \rightarrow 1$ (or KL divergence) is still a good measure for use in variational inference, in spite of the efficient use of Alpha-divergences for Dropout VI \cite{Li17}. $\alpha \rightarrow 1$ can yield the lowest training error, and optimizes a good lower bound for the evidence lower bound (ELBO) among all values of the parameter $\alpha \in [0,\infty)$.

When used as a surrogate objective for maximum likelihood estimation in latent variable models, the evidence lower bound (ELBO) produces state-of-the-art results. Inspired by this, we consider the extension of the ELBO to a family of lower bounds defined by a particle filter's estimator of the marginal likelihood, the filtering variational objectives (FIVOs). FIVOs take the same arguments as the ELBO, but can exploit a model's sequential structure to form tighter bounds. We present results that relate the tightness of FIVO's bound to the variance of the particle filter's estimator by considering the generic case of bounds defined as log-transformed likelihood estimators. Experimentally, we show that training with FIVO results in substantial improvements over training the same model architecture with the ELBO on sequential data.

Epileptic seizure activity shows complicated dynamics in both space and time. To understand the evolution and propagation of seizures spatially extended sets of data need to be analysed. We have previously described an efficient filtering scheme using variational Laplace that can be used in the Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM) framework [Friston, 2003] to estimate the temporal dynamics of seizures recorded using either invasive or non-invasive electrical recordings (EEG/ECoG). Spatiotemporal dynamics are modelled using a partial differential equation -- in contrast to the ordinary differential equation used in our previous work on temporal estimation of seizure dynamics [Cooray, 2016]. We provide the requisite theoretical background for the method and test the ensuing scheme on simulated seizure activity data and empirical invasive ECoG data. The method provides a framework to assimilate the spatial and temporal dynamics of seizure activity, an aspect of great physiological and clinical importance.

Sparse pseudo-point approximations for Gaussian process (GP) models provide a suite of methods that support deployment of GPs in the large data regime and enable analytic intractabilities to be sidestepped. However, the field lacks a principled method to handle streaming data in which both the posterior distribution over function values and the hyperparameter estimates are updated in an online fashion. The small number of existing approaches either use suboptimal hand-crafted heuristics for hyperparameter learning, or suffer from catastrophic forgetting or slow updating when new data arrive. This paper develops a new principled framework for deploying Gaussian process probabilistic models in the streaming setting, providing methods for learning hyperparameters and optimising pseudo-input locations. The proposed framework is assessed using synthetic and real-world datasets.

Variational inference (VI) is widely used as an efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo. It posits a family of approximating distributions $q$ and finds the closest member to the exact posterior $p$. Closeness is usually measured via a divergence $D(q || p)$ from $q$ to $p$. While successful, this approach also has problems. Notably, it typically leads to underestimation of the posterior variance. In this paper we propose CHIVI, a black-box variational inference algorithm that minimizes $D_{\chi}(p || q)$, the $\chi$-divergence from $p$ to $q$. CHIVI minimizes an upper bound of the model evidence, which we term the $\chi$ upper bound (CUBO). Minimizing the CUBO leads to improved posterior uncertainty, and it can also be used with the classical VI lower bound (ELBO) to provide a sandwich estimate of the model evidence. We study CHIVI on three models: probit regression, Gaussian process classification, and a Cox process model of basketball plays. When compared to expectation propagation and classical VI, CHIVI produces better error rates and more accurate estimates of posterior variance.

In this paper we deal with the problem of extending Zadeh's operators on fuzzy sets (FSs) to interval-valued (IVFSs), set-valued (SVFSs) and type-2 (T2FSs) fuzzy sets. Namely, it is known that seeing FSs as SVFSs, or T2FSs, whose membership degrees are singletons is not order-preserving. We then describe a family of lattice embeddings from FSs to SVFSs. Alternatively, if the former singleton viewpoint is required, we reformulate the intersection on hesitant fuzzy sets and introduce what we have called closed-valued fuzzy sets. This new type of fuzzy sets extends standard union and intersection on FSs. In addition, it allows handling together membership degrees of different nature as, for instance, closed intervals and finite sets. Finally, all these constructions are viewed as T2FSs forming a chain of lattices.