Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods such as Gibbs sampling are finding widespread use in applied statistics and machine learning. These often lead to difficult computational problems, which are increasingly being solved on parallel and distributed systems such as compute clusters. Recent work has proposed running iterative algorithms such as gradient descent and MCMC in parallel asynchronously for increased performance, with good empirical results in certain problems. Unfortunately, for MCMC this parallelization technique requires new convergence theory, as it has been explicitly demonstrated to lead to divergence on some examples. Recent theory on Asynchronous Gibbs sampling describes why these algorithms can fail, and provides a way to alter them to make them converge. In this article, we describe how to apply this theory in a generic setting, to understand the asynchronous behavior of any MCMC algorithm, including those implemented using parameter servers, and those not based on Gibbs sampling.

We develop Riemannian Stein Variational Gradient Descent (RSVGD), a Bayesian inference method that generalizes Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) to Riemann manifold. The benefits are two-folds: (i) for inference tasks in Euclidean spaces, RSVGD has the advantage over SVGD of utilizing information geometry, and (ii) for inference tasks on Riemann manifolds, RSVGD brings the unique advantages of SVGD to the Riemannian world. To appropriately transfer to Riemann manifolds, we conceive novel and non-trivial techniques for RSVGD, which are required by the intrinsically different characteristics of general Riemann manifolds from Euclidean spaces. We also discover Riemannian Stein's Identity and Riemannian Kernelized Stein Discrepancy. Experimental results show the advantages over SVGD of exploring distribution geometry and the advantages of particle-efficiency, iteration-effectiveness and approximation flexibility over other inference methods on Riemann manifolds.

We introduce a framework using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) for likelihood--free inference (LFI) and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Our approach addresses both the key problems in likelihood--free inference, namely how to compare distributions and how to efficiently explore the parameter space. Our framework allows one to use the simulator model as a black box and leverage the power of deep networks to generate a rich set of features in a data driven fashion (as opposed to previous ad hoc approaches). Thereby it is a step towards a powerful alternative approach to LFI and ABC. On benchmark data sets, our approach improves on others with respect to scalability, ability to handle high dimensional data and complex probability distributions.

Variational inference is a general approach for approximating complex density functions, such as those arising in latent variable models, popular in machine learning. It has been applied to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator and to carry out Bayesian inference, however, quantification of uncertainty with variational inference remains challenging from both theoretical and practical perspectives. This paper is concerned with developing uncertainty measures for variational inference by using bootstrap procedures. We first develop two general bootstrap approaches for assessing the uncertainty of a variational estimate and the study the underlying bootstrap theory in both fixed- and increasing-dimension settings. We then use the bootstrap approach and our theoretical results in the context of mixed membership modeling with multivariate binary data on functional disability from the National Long Term Care Survey. We carry out a two-sample approach to test for changes in the repeated measures of functional disability for the subset of individuals present in 1984 and 1994 waves.

Applying machine learning in the health care domain has shown promising results in recent years. Interpretable outputs from learning algorithms are desirable for decision making by health care personnel. In this work, we explore the possibility of utilizing causal relationships to refine diagnostic prediction. We focus on the task of diagnostic prediction using discomfort drawings, and explore two ways to employ causal identification to improve the diagnostic results. Firstly, we use causal identification to infer the causal relationships among diagnostic labels which, by itself, provides interpretable results to aid the decision making and training of health care personnel. Secondly, we suggest a post-processing approach where the inferred causal relationships are used to refine the prediction accuracy of a multi-view probabilistic model. Experimental results show firstly that causal identification is capable of detecting the causal relationships among diagnostic labels correctly, and secondly that there is potential for improving pain diagnostics prediction accuracy using the causal relationships.

This paper studies directed exploration for reinforcement learning agents by tracking uncertainty about the value of each available action. We identify two sources of uncertainty that are relevant for exploration. The first originates from limited data (parametric uncertainty), while the second originates from the distribution of the returns (return uncertainty). We identify methods to learn these distributions with deep neural networks, where we estimate parametric uncertainty with Bayesian drop-out, while return uncertainty is propagated through the Bellman equation as a Gaussian distribution. Then, we identify that both can be jointly estimated in one network, which we call the Double Uncertain Value Network. The policy is directly derived from the learned distributions based on Thompson sampling. Experimental results show that both types of uncertainty may vastly improve learning in domains with a strong exploration challenge.

The TensorFlow Distributions library implements a vision of probability theory adapted to the modern deep-learning paradigm of end-to-end differentiable computation. Building on two basic abstractions, it offers flexible building blocks for probabilistic computation. Distributions provide fast, numerically stable methods for generating samples and computing statistics, e.g., log density. Bijectors provide composable volume-tracking transformations with automatic caching. Together these enable modular construction of high dimensional distributions and transformations not possible with previous libraries (e.g., pixelCNNs, autoregressive flows, and reversible residual networks). They are the workhorse behind deep probabilistic programming systems like Edward and empower fast black-box inference in probabilistic models built on deep-network components. TensorFlow Distributions has proven an important part of the TensorFlow toolkit within Google and in the broader deep learning community.

Quantitative CBA is a postprocessing algorithm for association rule classification algorithm CBA (Liu et al, 1998). QCBA uses original, undiscretized numerical attributes to optimize the discovered association rules, refining the boundaries of literals in the antecedent of the rules produced by CBA. Some rules as well as literals from the rules can consequently be removed, which makes the resulting classifier smaller. One-rule classification and crisp rules make CBA classification models possibly most comprehensible among all association rule classification algorithms. These viable properties are retained by QCBA. The postprocessing is conceptually fast, because it is performed on a relatively small number of rules that passed data coverage pruning in CBA. Benchmark of our QCBA approach on 22 UCI datasets shows average 53% decrease in the total size of the model as measured by the total number of conditions in all rules. Model accuracy remains on the same level as for CBA.

Labeling training data is increasingly the largest bottleneck in deploying machine learning systems. We present Snorkel, a first-of-its-kind system that enables users to train state-of-the-art models without hand labeling any training data. Instead, users write labeling functions that express arbitrary heuristics, which can have unknown accuracies and correlations. Snorkel denoises their outputs without access to ground truth by incorporating the first end-to-end implementation of our recently proposed machine learning paradigm, data programming. We present a flexible interface layer for writing labeling functions based on our experience over the past year collaborating with companies, agencies, and research labs. In a user study, subject matter experts build models 2.8x faster and increase predictive performance an average 45.5% versus seven hours of hand labeling. We study the modeling tradeoffs in this new setting and propose an optimizer for automating tradeoff decisions that gives up to 1.8x speedup per pipeline execution. In two collaborations, with the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, and on four open-source text and image data sets representative of other deployments, Snorkel provides 132% average improvements to predictive performance over prior heuristic approaches and comes within an average 3.60% of the predictive performance of large hand-curated training sets.

We present a formalization of nested Monte Carlo (NMC) estimation, whereby terms in an outer estimator themselves involve calculation of separate, nested, Monte Carlo (MC) estimators. We demonstrate that, under mild conditions, NMC can provide consistent estimates of nested expectations, including cases involving arbitrary levels of nesting; establish corresponding rates of convergence; and provide empirical evidence that these rates are observed in practice. We further establish a number of pitfalls that can arise from naïve nesting of MC estimators, provide guidelines about how these can be avoided, and lay out novel methods for reformulating certain classes of nested expectation problems into single expectations, leading to improved convergence rates. Finally, we use one of these reformulations to derive a new estimator for use in discrete Bayesian experimental design problems which has a better convergence rate than existing methods. Our results have implications for a wide range of fields from probabilistic programming to deep generative models and serve both as an invitation for further inquiry and a caveat against careless use.