We present the first class of policy-gradient algorithms that work with both state-value and policy function-approximation, and are guaranteed to converge under off-policy training. Our solution targets problems in reinforcement learning where the action representation adds to the-curse-of-dimensionality; that is, with continuous or large action sets, thus making it infeasible to estimate state-action value functions (Q functions). Using state-value functions helps to lift the curse and as a result naturally turn our policy-gradient solution into classical Actor-Critic architecture whose Actor uses state-value function for the update. Our algorithms, Gradient Actor-Critic and Emphatic Actor-Critic, are derived based on the exact gradient of averaged state-value function objective and thus are guaranteed to converge to its optimal solution, while maintaining all the desirable properties of classical Actor-Critic methods with no additional hyper-parameters. To our knowledge, this is the first time that convergent off-policy learning methods have been extended to classical Actor-Critic methods with function approximation.

Clinical prognostic models derived from largescale healthcare data can inform critical diagnostic and therapeutic decisions. To enable off-theshelf usage of machine learning (ML) in prognostic research, we developed AUTOPROGNOSIS: a system for automating the design of predictive modeling pipelines tailored for clinical prognosis. AUTOPROGNOSIS optimizes ensembles of pipeline configurations efficiently using a novel batched Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithm that learns a low-dimensional decomposition of the pipelines high-dimensional hyperparameter space in concurrence with the BO procedure. This is achieved by modeling the pipelines performances as a black-box function with a Gaussian process prior, and modeling the similarities between the pipelines baseline algorithms via a sparse additive kernel with a Dirichlet prior. Meta-learning is used to warmstart BO with external data from similar patient cohorts by calibrating the priors using an algorithm that mimics the empirical Bayes method. The system automatically explains its predictions by presenting the clinicians with logical association rules that link patients features to predicted risk strata. We demonstrate the utility of AUTOPROGNOSIS using 10 major patient cohorts representing various aspects of cardiovascular patient care.

We consider the forecast aggregation problem in repeated settings, where the forecasts are done on a binary event. At each period multiple experts provide forecasts about an event. The goal of the aggregator is to aggregate those forecasts into a subjective accurate forecast. We assume that experts are Bayesian; namely they share a common prior, each expert is exposed to some evidence, and each expert applies Bayes rule to deduce his forecast. The aggregator is ignorant with respect to the information structure (i.e., distribution over evidence) according to which experts make their prediction. The aggregator observes the experts' forecasts only. At the end of each period the actual state is realized. We focus on the question whether the aggregator can learn to aggregate optimally the forecasts of the experts, where the optimal aggregation is the Bayesian aggregation that takes into account all the information (evidence) in the system. We consider the class of partial evidence information structures, where each expert is exposed to a different subset of conditionally independent signals. Our main results are positive; We show that optimal aggregation can be learned in polynomial time in a quite wide range of instances of the partial evidence environments. We provide a tight characterization of the instances where learning is possible and impossible.

Most methods for learning causal structures from non-experimental data rely on some assumptions of simplicity, the most famous of which is known as the Faithfulness condition. Without assuming such conditions to begin with, we develop a learning theory for inferring the structure of a causal Bayesian network, and we use the theory to provide a novel justification of a certain assumption of simplicity that is closely related to Faithfulness. Here is the idea. With only the Markov and IID assumptions, causal learning is notoriously too hard to achieve statistical consistency but we show that it can still achieve a quite desirable "combined" mode of stochastic convergence to the truth: having almost sure convergence to the true causal hypothesis with respect to almost all causal Bayesian networks, together with a certain kind of locally uniform convergence. Furthermore, every learning algorithm achieving at least that joint mode of convergence has this property: having stochastic convergence to the truth with respect to a causal Bayesian network $N$ only if $N$ satisfies a certain variant of Faithfulness, known as Pearl's Minimality condition---as if the learning algorithm were designed by assuming that condition. This explains, for the first time, why it is not merely optional but mandatory to assume the Minimality condition---or to proceed as if we assumed it.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular technique for sequential black-box function optimization, with applications including parameter tuning, robotics, environmental monitoring, and more. One of the most important challenges in BO is the development of algorithms that scale to high dimensions, which remains a key open problem despite recent progress. In this paper, we consider the approach of Kandasamy et al. (2015), in which the high-dimensional function decomposes as a sum of lower-dimensional functions on subsets of the underlying variables. In particular, we significantly generalize this approach by lifting the assumption that the subsets are disjoint, and consider additive models with arbitrary overlap among the subsets. By representing the dependencies via a graph, we deduce an efficient message passing algorithm for optimizing the acquisition function. In addition, we provide an algorithm for learning the graph from samples based on Gibbs sampling. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods on both synthetic and real-world data.

The sparse inverse covariance estimation problem is commonly solved using an $\ell_{1}$-regularized Gaussian maximum likelihood estimator known as "graphical lasso", but its computational cost becomes prohibitive for large data sets. A recent line of results showed--under mild assumptions--that the graphical lasso estimator can be retrieved by soft-thresholding the sample covariance matrix and solving a maximum determinant matrix completion (MDMC) problem. This paper proves an extension of this result, and describes a Newton-CG algorithm to efficiently solve the MDMC problem. Assuming that the thresholded sample covariance matrix is sparse with a sparse Cholesky factorization, we prove that the algorithm converges to an $\epsilon$-accurate solution in $O(n\log(1/\epsilon))$ time and $O(n)$ memory. The algorithm is highly efficient in practice: we solve the associated MDMC problems with as many as 200,000 variables to 7-9 digits of accuracy in less than an hour on a standard laptop computer running MATLAB.

Stein's method for measuring convergence to a continuous target distribution relies on an operator characterizing the target and Stein factor bounds on the solutions of an associated differential equation. While such operators and bounds are readily available for a diversity of univariate targets, few multivariate targets have been analyzed. We introduce a new class of characterizing operators based on Ito diffusions and develop explicit multivariate Stein factor bounds for any target with a fast-coupling Ito diffusion. As example applications, we develop computable and convergence-determining diffusion Stein discrepancies for log-concave, heavy-tailed, and multimodal targets and use these quality measures to select the hyperparameters of biased Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers, compare random and deterministic quadrature rules, and quantify bias-variance tradeoffs in approximate MCMC. Our results establish a near-linear relationship between diffusion Stein discrepancies and Wasserstein distances, improving upon past work even for strongly log-concave targets. The exposed relationship between Stein factors and Markov process coupling may be of independent interest.

This package collects tools for probabilistic reasoning in TensorFlow. It is intended to serve as a hub for development of modeling tools, inference algorithms, useful models, and general statistical computation. Taking advantage of the TensorFlow ecosystem allows straightforward combination of probabilistic methods with deep networks, gradient-based inference via automatic differentiation, and scalability to large datasets and models via hardware acceleration (e.g., GPUs) and distributed computation. Contents of this repository should be considered under active development; interfaces may change at any time. TensorFlow Probability does not currently contain any GPU-specific code; the primary difference between these packages is that tensorflow-probability-gpu depends on a GPU-enabled version of TensorFlow.

Bayesian graphical models have been shown to be a powerful tool for discovering uncertainty and causal structure from real-world data in many application fields. Current inference methods primarily follow different kinds of trade-offs between computational complexity and predictive accuracy. At one end of the spectrum, variational inference approaches perform well in computational efficiency, while at the other end, Gibbs sampling approaches are known to be relatively accurate for prediction in practice. In this paper, we extend an existing Gibbs sampling method, and propose a new deterministic Heron inference (Heron) for a family of Bayesian graphical models. In addition to the support for nontrivial distributability, one more benefit of Heron is that it is able to not only allow us to easily assess the convergence status but also largely improve the running efficiency. We evaluate Heron against the standard collapsed Gibbs sampler and state-of-the-art state augmentation method in inference for well-known graphical models. Experimental results using publicly available real-life data have demonstrated that Heron significantly outperforms the baseline methods for inferring Bayesian graphical models.

The fundamental idea of Bayesian inference is to become "less wrong" with more data. The process is straightforward: we have an initial belief, known as a prior, which we update as we gain additional information. Although we don't think about it as Bayesian Inference, we use this technique all the time. For example, we might initially think there is a 50% chance we will get a promotion at the end of the quarter. If we receive positive feedback from our manager, we adjust our estimate upwards, and conversely, we might decrease the probability if we make a mess with the coffee machine.