In this paper, the solution to the empirical risk minimization problem with $f$-divergence regularization (ERM-$f$DR) is presented and conditions under which the solution also serves as the solution to the minimization of the expected empirical risk subject to an $f$-divergence constraint are established. The proposed approach extends applicability to a broader class of $f$-divergences than previously reported and yields theoretical results that recover previously known results. Additionally, the difference between the expected empirical risk of the ERM-$f$DR solution and that of its reference measure is characterized, providing insights into previously studied cases of $f$-divergences. A central contribution is the introduction of the normalization function, a mathematical object that is critical in both the dual formulation and practical computation of the ERM-$f$DR solution. This work presents an implicit characterization of the normalization function as a nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE), establishes its key properties, and subsequently leverages them to construct a numerical algorithm for approximating the normalization factor under mild assumptions. Further analysis demonstrates structural equivalences between ERM-$f$DR problems with different $f$-divergences via transformations of the empirical risk. Finally, the proposed algorithm is used to compute the training and test risks of ERM-$f$DR solutions under different $f$-divergence regularizers. This numerical example highlights the practical implications of choosing different functions $f$ in ERM-$f$DR problems.

Estimating the unknown reward functions driving agents' behaviors is of central interest in inverse reinforcement learning and game theory. To tackle this problem, we develop a unified framework for reward function recovery in two-player zero-sum matrix games and Markov games with entropy regularization, where we aim to reconstruct the underlying reward functions given observed players' strategies and actions. This task is challenging due to the inherent ambiguity of inverse problems, the non-uniqueness of feasible rewards, and limited observational data coverage. To address these challenges, we establish the reward function's identifiability using the quantal response equilibrium (QRE) under linear assumptions. Building upon this theoretical foundation, we propose a novel algorithm to learn reward functions from observed actions. Our algorithm works in both static and dynamic settings and is adaptable to incorporate different methods, such as Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). We provide strong theoretical guarantees for the reliability and sample efficiency of our algorithm. Further, we conduct extensive numerical studies to demonstrate the practical effectiveness of the proposed framework, offering new insights into decision-making in competitive environments.

Semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) enhances the expressiveness of variational families through hierarchical semi-implicit distributions, but the intractability of their densities makes standard ELBO-based optimization biased. Recent score-matching approaches to SIVI (SIVI-SM) address this issue via a minimax formulation, at the expense of an additional lower-level optimization problem. In this paper, we propose kernel semi-implicit variational inference (KSIVI), a principled and tractable alternative that eliminates the lower-level optimization by leveraging kernel methods. We show that when optimizing over a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, the lower-level problem admits an explicit solution, reducing the objective to the kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD). Exploiting the hierarchical structure of semi-implicit distributions, the resulting KSD objective can be efficiently optimized using stochastic gradient methods. We establish optimization guarantees via variance bounds on Monte Carlo gradient estimators and derive statistical generalization bounds of order $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(1/\sqrt{n})$. We further introduce a multi-layer hierarchical extension that improves expressiveness while preserving tractability. Empirical results on synthetic and real-world Bayesian inference tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of KSIVI.

A probabilistic formulation of irreversible kinetics is introduced in which incrementally admissible histories are weighted by a Gibbs-type measure built from an energy-dissipation action and observation constraints, with Theta controlling epistemic uncertainty. This measure can be interpreted as a Bayesian posterior over histories. In the zero-uncertainty limit, it concentrates on maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) histories, recovering classical deterministic evolution by incremental minimization in the convex generalized-standard-material setting, while allowing multiple competing MAP histories for non-convex energies or temporally coupled constraints. This emergence is demonstrated across seven distinct forward-in-time examples and an inverse inference problem of unknown histories from sparse observations via a global constrained minimum-action principle.

Directed acyclic graphical (DAG) models are a powerful tool for representing causal relationships among jointly distributed random variables, especially concerning data from across different experimental settings. However, it is not always practical or desirable to estimate a causal model at the granularity of given features in a particular dataset. There is a growing body of research on causal abstraction to address such problems. We contribute to this line of research by (i) providing novel graphical identifiability results for practically-relevant interventional settings, (ii) proposing an efficient, provably consistent algorithm for directly learning abstract causal graphs from interventional data with unknown intervention targets, and (iii) uncovering theoretical insights about the lattice structure of the underlying search space, with connections to the field of causal discovery more generally. As proof of concept, we apply our algorithm on synthetic and real datasets with known ground truths, including measurements from a controlled physical system with interacting light intensity and polarization.

Estimating the Riesz representer is central to debiased machine learning for causal and structural parameter estimation. We propose generalized Riesz regression, a unified framework that estimates the Riesz representer by fitting a representer model via Bregman divergence minimization. This framework includes the squared loss and the Kullback--Leibler (KL) divergence as special cases: the former recovers Riesz regression, while the latter recovers tailored loss minimization. Under suitable model specifications, the dual problems correspond to covariate balancing, which we call automatic covariate balancing. Moreover, under the same specifications, outcome averages weighted by the estimated Riesz representer satisfy Neyman orthogonality even without estimating the regression function, a property we call automatic Neyman orthogonalization. This property not only reduces the estimation error of Neyman orthogonal scores but also clarifies a key distinction between debiased machine learning and targeted maximum likelihood estimation. Our framework can also be viewed as a generalization of density ratio fitting under Bregman divergences to Riesz representer estimation, and it applies beyond density ratio estimation. We provide convergence analyses for both reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) and neural network model classes. A Python package for generalized Riesz regression is available at https://github.com/MasaKat0/grr.

Granger causality (GC) [15] is a time series causal discovery framework that uses predictive modeling to identify the underlying causal structure of a time series system. Relying on the assumption that cause precedes effect, GC assesses whether including the lagged information from one time series in the autoregressive model of a second time series enhances its predictions. This improvement indicates a predictive relationship between the time series variables, where one time series provides supplemental information about the future of another time series, thereby signifying the presence of a (Granger) causal relationship. GC requires only observational data, and has been used for time series causal discovery across diverse domains, including climate science [33], political and social sciences [17], econometrics [4], and biological systems studies [13]. The original formulation of GC requires several assumptions to be satisfied for causal identifiability. In regards to the candidate time series system, it is assumed that the time series variables are stationary, and that all variables are observed (absence of latent confounders). GC was initially proposed for bivariate time series systems, but was generalised for the multivariate setting to accommodate the assumption that all relevant variables are included in the analysis [15]. Additional assumptions are made with regard to the types of causal relationships that can be identified within the time series system. GC cannot estimate a causal relationship between time series at an instantaneous time point, relying on the relationship between the lags and predicted values to determine a GC relationship.

Horseshoe mixtures-of-experts (HS-MoE) models provide a Bayesian framework for sparse expert selection in mixture-of-experts architectures. We combine the horseshoe prior's adaptive global-local shrinkage with input-dependent gating, yielding data-adaptive sparsity in expert usage. Our primary methodological contribution is a particle learning algorithm for sequential inference, in which the filter is propagated forward in time while tracking only sufficient statistics. We also discuss how HS-MoE relates to modern mixture-of-experts layers in large language models, which are deployed under extreme sparsity constraints (e.g., activating a small number of experts per token out of a large pool).

Multilabel Classification (MLC) deals with the simultaneous classification of multiple binary labels. The task is challenging because, not only may there be arbitrarily different and complex relationships between predictor variables and each label, but associations among labels may exist even after accounting for effects of predictor variables. In this paper, we present a Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) framework to model the problem. BART is a nonparametric and flexible model structure capable of uncovering complex relationships within the data. Our adaptation, MLCBART, assumes that labels arise from thresholding an underlying numeric scale, where a multivariate normal model allows explicit estimation of the correlation structure among labels. This enables the discovery of complicated relationships in various forms and improves MLC predictive performance. Our Bayesian framework not only enables uncertainty quantification for each predicted label, but our MCMC draws produce an estimated conditional probability distribution of label combinations for any predictor values. Simulation experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model by comparing its performance with a set of models, including the oracle model with the correct functional form. Results show that our model predicts vectors of labels more accurately than other contenders and its performance is close to the oracle model. An example highlights how the method's ability to produce measures of uncertainty on predictions provides nuanced understanding of classification results.

The Rashomon effect -- the existence of multiple, distinct models that achieve nearly equivalent predictive performance -- has emerged as a fundamental phenomenon in modern machine learning and statistics. In this paper, we explore the causes underlying the Rashomon effect, organizing them into three categories: statistical sources arising from finite samples and noise in the data-generating process; structural sources arising from non-convexity of optimization objectives and unobserved variables that create fundamental non-identifiability; and procedural sources arising from limitations of optimization algorithms and deliberate restrictions to suboptimal model classes. We synthesize insights from machine learning, statistics, and optimization literature to provide a unified framework for understanding why the multiplicity of good models arises. A key distinction emerges: statistical multiplicity diminishes with more data, structural multiplicity persists asymptotically and cannot be resolved without different data or additional assumptions, and procedural multiplicity reflects choices made by practitioners. Beyond characterizing causes, we discuss both the challenges and opportunities presented by the Rashomon effect, including implications for inference, interpretability, fairness, and decision-making under uncertainty.