Sum-product networks (SPNs) are flexible density estimators and have received significant attention due to their attractive inference properties. While parameter learning in SPNs is well developed, structure learning leaves something to be desired: Even though there is a plethora of SPN structure learners, most of them are somewhat ad-hoc and based on intuition rather than a clear learning principle. In this paper, we introduce a well-principled Bayesian framework for SPN structure learning.

Bayesian optimization is a methodology to optimize black-box functions. Traditionally, it focuses on the setting where you can arbitrarily query the search space. However, many real-life problems do not offer this flexibility; in particular, the search space of the next query may depend on previous ones. Example challenges arise in the physical sciences in the form of local movement constraints, required monotonicity in certain variables, and transitions influencing the accuracy of measurements.

Modern applications of machine learning (ML) deal with increasingly heterogeneous datasets comprised of data collected from overlapping latent subpopulations. As a result, traditional models trained over large datasets may fail to recognize highly predictive localized effects in favour of weakly predictive global patterns. This is a problem because localized effects are critical to developing individualized policies and treatment plans in applications ranging from precision medicine to advertising. To address this challenge, we propose to estimate sample-specific models that tailor inference and prediction at the individual level. In contrast to classical ML models that estimate a single, complex model (or only a few complex models), our approach produces a model personalized to each sample. These sample-specific models can be studied to understand subgroup dynamics that go beyond coarse-grained class labels. Crucially, our approach does not assume that relationships between samples (e.g. a similarity network) are known a priori. Instead, we use unmodeled covariates to learn a latent distance metric over the samples. We apply this approach to financial, biomedical, and electoral data as well as simulated data and show that sample-specific models provide fine-grained interpretations of complicated phenomena without sacrificing predictive accuracy compared to state-of-the-art models such as deep neural networks.

Recently, 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) has become popular in reconstructing dense 3D representations of appearance and geometry. However, the learning pipeline in 3DGS inherently lacks the ability to quantify uncertainty, which is an important factor in applications like robotics mapping and navigation. In this paper, we propose an uncertainty estimation method built upon the Bayesian inference framework. Specifically, we propose a method to build variational multi-scale 3D Gaussians, where we leverage explicit scale information in 3DGS parameters to construct diversified parameter space samples. We develop an offset table technique to draw local multi-scale samples efficiently by offsetting selected attributes and sharing other base attributes. Then, the offset table is learned by variational inference with multi-scale prior. The learned offset posterior can quantify the uncertainty of each individual Gaussian component, and be used in the forward pass to infer the predictive uncertainty. Extensive experimental results on various benchmark datasets show that the proposed method provides well-aligned calibration performance on estimated uncertainty and better rendering quality compared with the previous methods that enable uncertainty quantification with view synthesis. Besides, by leveraging the model parameter uncertainty estimated by our method, we can remove noisy Gaussians automatically, thereby obtaining a high-fidelity part of the reconstructed scene, which is of great help in improving the visual quality.

Diffusion models recently proved to be remarkable priors for Bayesian inverse problems. However, training these models typically requires access to large amounts of clean data, which could prove difficult in some settings. In this work, we present a novel method based on the expectation-maximization algorithm for training diffusion models from incomplete and noisy observations only. Unlike previous works, our method leads to proper diffusion models, which is crucial for downstream tasks. As part of our method, we propose and motivate an improved posterior sampling scheme for unconditional diffusion models.

Learning expressive probabilistic models correctly describing the data is a ubiquitous problem in machine learning. A popular approach for solving it is mapping the observations into a representation space with a simple joint distribution, which can typically be written as a product of its marginals -- thus drawing a connection with the field of nonlinear independent component analysis. Deep density models have been widely used for this task, but their maximum likelihood based training requires estimating the log-determinant of the Jacobian and is computationally expensive, thus imposing a trade-off between computation and expressive power. In this work, we propose a new approach for exact training of such neural networks. Based on relative gradients, we exploit the matrix structure of neural network parameters to compute updates efficiently even in high-dimensional spaces; the computational cost of the training is quadratic in the input size, in contrast with the cubic scaling of naive approaches. This allows fast training with objective functions involving the log-determinant of the Jacobian, without imposing constraints on its structure, in stark contrast to autoregressive normalizing flows.

Recent methods are proposed to improve performance of domain adaptation by inferring domain index under an adversarial variational bayesian framework, where domain index is unavailable. However, existing methods typically assume that the global domain indices are sampled from a vanilla gaussian prior, overlooking the inherent structures among different domains. To address this challenge, we propose a Bayesian Domain Adaptation with Gaussian Mixture Domain-Indexing(GMDI) algorithm. GMDI employs a Gaussian Mixture Model for domain indices, with the number of component distributions in the "domain-themes" space adaptively determined by a Chinese Restaurant Process. By dynamically adjusting the mixtures at the domain indices level, GMDI significantly improves domain adaptation performance. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates that GMDI achieves a more stringent evidence lower bound, closer to the log-likelihood. For classification, GMDI outperforms all approaches, and surpasses the state-of-the-art method, VDI, by up to 3.4%, reaching 99.3%. For regression, GMDI reduces MSE by up to 21% (from 3.160 to 2.493), achieving the lowest errors among all methods. Source code is publicly available from https://github.com/lingyf3/GMDI.

We study the identification of causal effects, motivated by two improvements to identifiability which can be attained if one knows that some variables in a causal graph are functionally determined by their parents (without needing to know the specific functions). First, an unidentifiable causal effect may become identifiable when certain variables are functional. Second, certain functional variables can be excluded from being observed without affecting the identifiability of a causal effect, which may significantly reduce the number of needed variables in observational data. Our results are largely based on an elimination procedure which removes functional variables from a causal graph while preserving key properties in the resulting causal graph, including the identifiability of causal effects.

Causal interactions among a group of variables are often modeled by a single causal graph. In some domains, however, these interactions are best described by multiple co-existing causal graphs, e.g., in dynamical systems or genomics. This paper addresses the hitherto unknown role of interventions in learning causal interactions among variables governed by a mixture of causal systems, each modeled by one directed acyclic graph (DAG). Causal discovery from mixtures is fundamentally more challenging than single-DAG causal discovery. Two major difficulties stem from (i) an inherent uncertainty about the skeletons of the component DAGs that constitute the mixture and (ii) possibly cyclic relationships across these component DAGs. This paper addresses these challenges and aims to identify edges that exist in at least one component DAG of the mixture, referred to as the true edges. First, it establishes matching necessary and sufficient conditions on the size of interventions required to identify the true edges.

Modeling real-world multidimensional time series can be particularly challenging when these are sporadically observed (i.e., sampling is irregular both in time and across dimensions)--such as in the case of clinical patient data. To address these challenges, we propose (1) a continuous-time version of the Gated Recurrent Unit, building upon the recent Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Chen et al., 2018), and (2) a Bayesian update network that processes the sporadic observations. We bring these two ideas together in our GRU-ODE-Bayes method. We then demonstrate that the proposed method encodes a continuity prior for the latent process and that it can exactly represent the Fokker-Planck dynamics of complex processes driven by a multidimensional stochastic differential equation. Additionally, empirical evaluation shows that our method outperforms the state of the art on both synthetic data and real-world data with applications in healthcare and climate forecast. What is more, the continuity prior is shown to be well suited for low number of samples settings.