Online crowdsourcing provides a scalable and inexpensive means to collect knowledge (e.g. labels) about various types of data items (e.g. text, audio, video). However, it is also known to result in large variance in the quality of recorded responses which often cannot be directly used for training machine learning systems. To resolve this issue, a lot of work has been conducted to control the response quality such that low-quality responses cannot adversely affect the performance of the machine learning systems. Such work is referred to as the quality control for crowdsourcing. Past quality control research can be divided into two major branches: quality control mechanism design and statistical models. The first branch focuses on designing measures, thresholds, interfaces and workflows for payment, gamification, question assignment and other mechanisms that influence workers' behaviour. The second branch focuses on developing statistical models to perform effective aggregation of responses to infer correct responses. The two branches are connected as statistical models (i) provide parameter estimates to support the measure and threshold calculation, and (ii) encode modelling assumptions used to derive (theoretical) performance guarantees for the mechanisms. There are surveys regarding each branch but they lack technical details about the other branch. Our survey is the first to bridge the two branches by providing technical details on how they work together under frameworks that systematically unify crowdsourcing aspects modelled by both of them to determine the response quality. We are also the first to provide taxonomies of quality control papers based on the proposed frameworks. Finally, we specify the current limitations and the corresponding future directions for the quality control research.

Many real-world systems studied are governed by complex, nonlinear dynamics. By modeling these dynamics, we can gain insight into how these systems work, make predictions about how they will behave, and develop strategies for controlling them. While there are many methods for modeling nonlinear dynamical systems, existing techniques face a trade off between offering interpretable descriptions and making accurate predictions. Here, we develop a class of models that aims to achieve both simultaneously, smoothly interpolating between simple descriptions and more complex, yet also more accurate models. Our probabilistic model achieves this multi-scale property through a hierarchy of locally linear dynamics that jointly approximate global nonlinear dynamics. We call it the tree-structured recurrent switching linear dynamical system. To fit this model, we present a fully-Bayesian sampling procedure using Polya-Gamma data augmentation to allow for fast and conjugate Gibbs sampling. Through a variety of synthetic and real examples, we show how these models outperform existing methods in both interpretability and predictive capability.

We propose self-guided belief propagation (SBP) that modifies belief propagation (BP) by incorporating the pairwise potentials only gradually. This homotopy continuation method converges to a unique solution and increases the accuracy without increasing the computational burden. We apply SBP to grid graphs, complete graphs, and random graphs with random Ising potentials and show that: (i) SBP is superior in terms of accuracy whenever BP converges, and (ii) SBP obtains a unique, stable, and accurate solution whenever BP does not converge. We further provide a formal analysis to demonstrate that SBP obtains the global optimum of the Bethe approximation for attractive models with unidirectional fields.

As autonomous agents become more ubiquitous, they will eventually have to reason about the mental state of other agents, including those agents' beliefs, desires and goals - so-called theory of mind reasoning. We introduce a collection of increasingly complex theory of mind models of a "chaser" pursuing a "runner", known as the Chaser-Runner model. We show that our implementation is a relatively straightforward theory of mind model that can capture a variety of rich behaviors, which in turn, increase runner detection rates relative to basic (non-theory-of-mind) models. In addition, our paper demonstrates that (1) using a planning-as-inference formulation based on nested importance sampling results in agents simultaneously reasoning about other agents' plans and crafting counter-plans, (2) probabilistic programming is a natural way to describe models in which each uses complex primitives such as path planners to make decisions, and (3) allocating additional computation to perform nested reasoning about agents result in lower-variance estimates of expected utility.

Predicting the time to build software is a very complex task for software engineering managers. There are complex factors that can directly interfere with the productivity of the development team. Factors directly related to the complexity of the system to be developed drastically change the time necessary for the completion of the works with the software factories. This work proposes the use of a hybrid system based on artificial neural networks and fuzzy systems to assist in the construction of an expert system based on rules to support in the prediction of hours destined to the development of software according to the complexity of the elements present in the same. The set of fuzzy rules obtained by the system helps the management and control of software development by providing a base of interpretable estimates based on fuzzy rules. The model was submitted to tests on a real database, and its results were promissory in the construction of an aid mechanism in the predictability of the software construction.

FRAME (Filters, Random fields, And Maximum Entropy) is an energy-based descriptive model that synthesizes visual realism by capturing mutual patterns from structural input signals. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is applied by default, yet conventionally causes the unstable training energy that wrecks the generated structures, which remains unexplained. In this paper, we provide a new theoretical insight to analyze FRAME, from a perspective of particle physics ascribing the weird phenomenon to KL-vanishing issue. In order to stabilize the energy dissipation, we propose an alternative Wasserstein distance in discrete time based on the conclusion that the Jordan-Kinderlehrer-Otto (JKO) discrete flow approximates KL discrete flow when the time step size tends to 0. Besides, this metric can still maintain the model's statistical consistency. Quantitative and qualitative experiments have been respectively conducted on several widely used datasets. The empirical studies have evidenced the effectiveness and superiority of our method.

Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) (Sutton and Barto, 1998) problems are a class of sequential decision-making problems where an agent seeks to maximize rewards by acting in an unknown stationary environment. The MAB problem is often caricaturized using a set of slot machines with unknown payout distributions. The agent must decide which arm to pull in order to maximize earnings. Because the machines' reward distributions are initially unknown, the bandit must select actions that balance exploration (learning the reward distributions) with exploitation (playing the machine with highest expected reward). Contextual bandits (CB) (Li et al., 2010a) are a slightly modified MAB problem where the reward distributions are conditioned on an observation which is revealed to the agent prior to the selection of an action.

We introduce a genetic algorithm that designs quantum optics experiments for engineering quantum states with specific properties. Our algorithm is powerful and flexible, and can easily be modified to find methods of engineering states for a range of applications. Here we focus on quantum metrology. First, we consider the noise-free case, and use the algorithm to find quantum states with a large quantum Fisher information (QFI). We find methods, which only involve experimental elements that are available with current technology, for engineering quantum states with up to a 100-fold improvement over the best classical state, and a 20-fold improvement over the optimal Gaussian state. Such states are a superposition of the vacuum with a large number of photons (around 80), and can hence be seen as Schr\"odinger-cat-like states. We then apply the two most dominant noise sources in our setting -- photon loss and imperfect heralding -- and use the algorithm to find quantum states that still improve over the optimal Gaussian state with realistic levels of noise. This will open up experimental and technological work in using exotic non-Gaussian states for quantum-enhanced phase measurements. Finally, we use the Bayesian mean square error to look beyond the regime of validity of the QFI, finding quantum states with precision enhancements over the alternatives even when the experiment operates in the regime of limited data.

The ability for autonomous agents to learn and conform to human norms is crucial for their safety and effectiveness in social environments. While recent work has led to frameworks for the representation and inference of simple social rules, research into norm learning remains at an exploratory stage. Here, we present a robotic system capable of representing, learning, and inferring ownership relations and norms. Ownership is represented as a graph of probabilistic relations between objects and their owners, along with a database of predicate-based norms that constrain the actions permissible on owned objects. To learn these norms and relations, our system integrates (i) a novel incremental norm learning algorithm capable of both one-shot learning and induction from specific examples, (ii) Bayesian inference of ownership relations in response to apparent rule violations, and (iii) percept-based prediction of an object's likely owners. Through a series of simulated and real-world experiments, we demonstrate the competence and flexibility of the system in performing object manipulation tasks that require a variety of norms to be followed, laying the groundwork for future research into the acquisition and application of social norms.

Recently, compression and acceleration of deep neural networks are in critic need. Bayesian generalization of structured pruning represents an important research direction to solve the above problem. However, the existing Bayesian methods ignore the dependency among neurons and filters for computational simplicity. In this study, we explore, under Bayesian framework, a structured pruning method with layer-wise sequential dependency assumed, a more general learning setting. Based on the property of Dirac distribution, we further derive a new dropout noise, which makes it possible to approximate the posterior of dropout noise knowing that of the previous layer. With the Dirac-like dropout noise, we further propose a recursive strategy, named \emph{Recursive Bayesian Pruning} (RBP), to train and prune networks in a layer-by-layer fashion. The unimportant neurons and filters are directly targeted and removed, taking the influence from the previous layer. Experiments on typical neural networks LeNet-300-100, LeNet-5 and VGG-16 have demonstrated the proposed method are competitive with or even outperform the state-of-the-art methods in several compression and acceleration metrics.