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 Uncertainty


Entropy-Constrained Training of Deep Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Abstract--We propose a general framework for neural network compression that is motivated by the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle. For that we first derive an expression forthe entropy of a neural network, which measures its complexity explicitly in terms of its bit-size. This objective generalizes many of the compression techniques proposed in the literature, in that pruning or reducing the cardinality of the weight elements of the network can be seen special cases of entropy-minimization techniques. Furthermore, we derive a continuous relaxation of the objective, which allows us to minimize it using gradient based optimization techniques. Finally, we show that we can reach stateof-the-art compressionresults on different network architectures and data sets, e.g. I. INTRODUCTION It is well established that deep neural networks excel on a wide range of machine learning tasks [1].


On The Chain Rule Optimal Transport Distance

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We define a novel class of distances between statistical multivariate distributions by solving an optimal transportation problem on their marginal densities with respect to a ground distance defined on their conditional densities. By using the chain rule factorization of probabilities, we show how to perform optimal transport on a ground space being an information-geometric manifold of conditional probabilities. We prove that this new distance is a metric whenever the chosen ground distance is a metric. Our distance generalizes both the Wasserstein distances between point sets and a recently introduced metric distance between statistical mixtures. As a first application of this Chain Rule Optimal Transport (CROT) distance, we show that the ground distance between statistical mixtures is upper bounded by this optimal transport distance, whenever the ground distance is joint convex. We report on our experiments which quantify the tightness of the CROT distance for the total variation distance and a square root generalization of the Jensen-Shannon divergence between mixtures.


Disentangling group and link persistence in Dynamic Stochastic Block models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the inference of a model of dynamic networks in which both communities and links keep memory of previous network states. By considering maximum likelihood inference from single snapshot observations of the network, we show that link persistence makes the inference of communities harder, decreasing the detectability threshold, while community persistence tends to make it easier. We analytically show that communities inferred from single network snapshot can share a maximum overlap with the underlying communities of a specific previous instant in time. This leads to time-lagged inference: the identification of past communities rather than present ones. Finally we compute the time lag and propose a corrected algorithm, the Lagged Snapshot Dynamic (LSD) algorithm, for community detection in dynamic networks. We analytically and numerically characterize the detectability transitions of such algorithm as a function of the memory parameters of the model and we make a comparison with a full dynamic inference.


A geometric characterisation of sensitivity analysis in monomial models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Sensitivity analysis in probabilistic discrete graphical models is usually conducted by varying one probability value at a time and observing how this affects output probabilities of interest. When one probability is varied then others are proportionally covaried to respect the sum-to-one condition of probability laws. The choice of proportional covariation is justified by a variety of optimality conditions, under which the original and the varied distributions are as close as possible under different measures of closeness. For variations of more than one parameter at a time proportional covariation is justified in some special cases only. In this work, for the large class of discrete statistical models entertaining a regular monomial parametrisation, we demonstrate the optimality of newly defined proportional multi-way schemes with respect to an optimality criterion based on the notion of I-divergence. We demonstrate that there are varying parameters choices for which proportional covariation is not optimal and identify the sub-family of model distributions where the distance between the original distribution and the one where probabilities are covaried proportionally is minimum. This is shown by adopting a new formal, geometric characterization of sensitivity analysis in monomial models, which include a wide array of probabilistic graphical models. We also demonstrate the optimality of proportional covariation for multi-way analyses in Naive Bayes classifiers.


Machine Learning for Molecular Dynamics on Long Timescales

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulation is widely used to analyze the properties of molecules and materials. Most practical applications, such as comparison with experimental measurements, designing drug molecules, or optimizing materials, rely on statistical quantities, which may be prohibitively expensive to compute from direct long-time MD simulations. Classical Machine Learning (ML) techniques have already had a profound impact on the field, especially for learning low-dimensional models of the long-time dynamics and for devising more efficient sampling schemes for computing long-time statistics. Novel ML methods have the potential to revolutionize long-timescale MD and to obtain interpretable models. ML concepts such as statistical estimator theory, end-to-end learning, representation learning and active learning are highly interesting for the MD researcher and will help to develop new solutions to hard MD problems. With the aim of better connecting the MD and ML research areas and spawning new research on this interface, we define the learning problems in long-timescale MD, present successful approaches and outline some of the unsolved ML problems in this application field.


A Tutorial on Deep Latent Variable Models of Natural Language

arXiv.org Machine Learning

There has been much recent, exciting work on combining the complementary strengths of latent variable models and deep learning. Latent variable modeling makes it easy to explicitly specify model constraints through conditional independence properties, while deep learning makes it possible to parameterize these conditional likelihoods with powerful function approximators. While these "deep latent variable" models provide a rich, flexible framework for modeling many real-world phenomena, difficulties exist: deep parameterizations of conditional likelihoods usually make posterior inference intractable, and latent variable objectives often complicate backpropagation by introducing points of non-differentiability. This tutorial explores these issues in depth through the lens of variational inference.


Adams Conditioning and Likelihood Ratio Transfer Mediated Inference

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Bayesian inference as applied in a legal setting is about belief transfer and involves a plurality of agents and communication protocols. A forensic expert (FE) may communicate to a trier of fact (TOF) first its value of a certain likelihood ratio with respect to FE's belief state as represented by a probability function on FE's proposition space. Subsequently FE communicates its recently acquired confirmation that a certain evidence proposition is true. Then TOF performs likelihood ratio transfer mediated reasoning thereby revising their own belief state. The logical principles involved in likelihood transfer mediated reasoning are discussed in a setting where probabilistic arithmetic is done within a meadow, and with Adams conditioning placed in a central role.


Online gradient-based mixtures for transfer modulation in meta-learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Learning-to-learn or meta-learning leverages data-driven inductive bias to increase the efficiency of learning on a novel task. This approach encounters difficulty when transfer is not mutually beneficial, for instance, when tasks are sufficiently dissimilar or change over time. Here, we use the connection between gradient-based meta-learning and hierarchical Bayes (Grant et al., 2018) to propose a mixture of hierarchical Bayesian models over the parameters of an arbitrary function approximator such as a neural network. Generalizing the model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML) algorithm (Finn et al., 2017), we present a stochastic expectation maximization procedure to jointly estimate parameter initializations for gradient descent as well as a latent assignment of tasks to initializations. This approach better captures the diversity of training tasks as opposed to consolidating inductive biases into a single set of hyperparameters. Our experiments demonstrate better generalization performance on the standard miniImageNet benchmark for 1-shot classification. We further derive a novel and scalable non-parametric variant of our method that captures the evolution of a task distribution over time as demonstrated on a set of few-shot regression tasks.


Bayesian Mean-parameterized Nonnegative Binary Matrix Factorization

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Binary data matrices can represent many types of data such as social networks, votes or gene expression. In some cases, the analysis of binary matrices can be tackled with nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF), where the observed data matrix is approximated by the product of two smaller nonnegative matrices. In this context, probabilistic NMF assumes a generative model where the data is usually Bernoulli-distributed. Often, a link function is used to map the factorization to the $[0,1]$ range, ensuring a valid Bernoulli mean parameter. However, link functions have the potential disadvantage to lead to uninterpretable models. Mean-parameterized NMF, on the contrary, overcomes this problem. We propose a unified framework for Bayesian mean-parameterized nonnegative binary matrix factorization models (NBMF). We analyze three models which correspond to three possible constraints that respect the mean-parametrization without the need for link functions. Furthermore, we derive a novel collapsed Gibbs sampler and a collapsed variational algorithm to infer the posterior distribution of the factors. Next, we extend the proposed models to a nonparametric setting where the number of used latent dimensions is automatically driven by the observed data. We analyze the performance of our NBMF methods in multiple datasets for different tasks such as dictionary learning and prediction of missing data. Experiments show that our methods provide similar or superior results than the state of the art, while automatically detecting the number of relevant components.


An Active Information Seeking Model for Goal-oriented Vision-and-Language Tasks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

As Computer Vision algorithms move from passive analysis of pixels to active reasoning over semantics, the breadth of information algorithms need to reason over has expanded significantly. One of the key challenges in this vein is the ability to identify the information required to make a decision, and select an action that will recover this information. We propose an reinforcement-learning approach that maintains an distribution over its internal information, thus explicitly representing the ambiguity in what it knows, and needs to know, towards achieving its goal. Potential actions are then generated according to particles sampled from this distribution. For each potential action a distribution of the expected answers is calculated, and the value of the information gained is obtained, as compared to the existing internal information. We demonstrate this approach applied to two vision-language problems that have attracted significant recent interest, visual dialogue and visual query generation. In both cases the method actively selects actions that will best reduce its internal uncertainty, and outperforms its competitors in achieving the goal of the challenge.