Actual causation is concerned with the question "what caused what?" Consider a transition between two states within a system of interacting elements, such as an artificial neural network, or a biological brain circuit. Which combination of synapses caused the neuron to fire? Which image features caused the classifier to misinterpret the picture? Even detailed knowledge of the system's causal network, its elements, their states, connectivity, and dynamics does not automatically provide a straightforward answer to the "what caused what?" question. Counterfactual accounts of actual causation based on graphical models, paired with system interventions, have demonstrated initial success in addressing specific problem cases in line with intuitive causal judgments. Here, we start from a set of basic requirements for causation (realization, composition, information, integration, and exclusion) and develop a rigorous, quantitative account of actual causation that is generally applicable to discrete dynamical systems. We present a formal framework to evaluate these causal requirements that is based on system interventions and partitions, and considers all counterfactuals of a state transition. This framework is used to provide a complete causal account of the transition by identifying and quantifying the strength of all actual causes and effects linking the two consecutive system states. Finally, we examine several exemplary cases and paradoxes of causation and show that they can be illuminated by the proposed framework for quantifying actual causation.

Transfer learning can address the learning tasks of unlabeled data in the target domain by leveraging plenty of labeled data from a different but related source domain. A core issue in transfer learning is to learn a shared feature space in where the distributions of the data from two domains are matched. This learning process can be named as transfer representation learning (TRL). The feature transformation methods are crucial to ensure the success of TRL. The most commonly used feature transformation method in TRL is kernel-based nonlinear mapping to the high-dimensional space followed by linear dimensionality reduction. But the kernel functions are lack of interpretability and are difficult to be selected. To this end, the TSK fuzzy system (TSK-FS) is combined with transfer learning and a more intuitive and interpretable modeling method, called transfer representation learning with TSK-FS (TRL-TSK-FS) is proposed in this paper. Specifically, TRL-TSK-FS realizes TRL from two aspects. On one hand, the data in the source and target domains are transformed into the fuzzy feature space in which the distribution distance of the data between two domains is min-imized. On the other hand, discriminant information and geo-metric properties of the data are preserved by linear discriminant analysis and principal component analysis. In addition, another advantage arises with the proposed method, that is, the nonlinear transformation is realized by constructing fuzzy mapping with the antecedent part of the TSK-FS instead of kernel functions which are difficult to be selected. Extensive experiments are conducted on the text and image datasets. The results obviously show the superiority of the proposed method.

Latent class model (LCM), which is a finite mixture of different categorical distributions, is one of the most widely used models in statistics and machine learning fields. Because of its non-continuous nature and the flexibility in shape, researchers in practice areas such as marketing and social sciences also frequently use LCM to gain insights from their data. One likelihood-based method, the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm, is often used to obtain the model estimators. However, the EM algorithm is well-known for its notoriously slow convergence. In this research, we explore alternative likelihood-based methods that can potential remedy the slow convergence of the EM algorithm. More specifically, we regard likelihood-based approach as a constrained nonlinear optimization problem, and apply quasi-Newton type methods to solve them. We examine two different constrained optimization methods to maximize the log likelihood function. We present simulation study results to show that the proposed methods not only converge in less iterations than the EM algorithm but also produce more accurate model estimators.

Its constant technological evolution characterizes the contemporary world, and every day the processes, once manual, become computerized. Data are stored in the cyberspace, and as a consequence, one must increase the concern with the security of this environment. Cyber-attacks are represented by a growing worldwide scale and are characterized as one of the significant challenges of the century. This article aims to propose a computational system based on intelligent hybrid models, which through fuzzy rules allows the construction of expert systems in cybernetic data attacks, focusing on the SQL Injection attack. The tests were performed with real bases of SQL Injection attacks on government computers, using fuzzy neural networks. According to the results obtained, the feasibility of constructing a system based on fuzzy rules, with the classification accuracy of cybernetic invasions within the margin of the standard deviation (compared to the state-of-the-art model in solving this type of problem) is real. The model helps countries prepare to protect their data networks and information systems, as well as create opportunities for expert systems to automate the identification of attacks in cyberspace.

Planning under model uncertainty is a fundamental problem across many applications of decision making and learning. In this paper, we propose the Robust Adaptive Monte Carlo Planning (RAMCP) algorithm, which allows computation of risk-sensitive Bayes-adaptive policies that optimally trade off exploration, exploitation, and robustness. RAMCP formulates the risk-sensitive planning problem as a two-player zero-sum game, in which an adversary perturbs the agent's belief over the models. We introduce two versions of the RAMCP algorithm. The first, RAMCP-F, converges to an optimal risk-sensitive policy without having to rebuild the search tree as the underlying belief over models is perturbed. The second version, RAMCP-I, improves computational efficiency at the cost of losing theoretical guarantees, but is shown to yield empirical results comparable to RAMCP-F. RAMCP is demonstrated on an n-pull multi-armed bandit problem, as well as a patient treatment scenario.

Software development effort estimation is considered a fundamental task for software development life cycle as well as for managing project cost, time and quality. Therefore, accurate estimation is a substantial factor in projects success and reducing the risks. In recent years, software effort estimation has received a considerable amount of attention from researchers and became a challenge for software industry. In the last two decades, many researchers and practitioners proposed statistical and machine learning-based models for software effort estimation. In this work, Firefly Algorithm is proposed as a metaheuristic optimization method for optimizing the parameters of three COCOMO-based models. These models include the basic COCOMO model and other two models proposed in the literature as extensions of the basic COCOMO model. The developed estimation models are evaluated using different evaluation metrics. Experimental results show high accuracy and significant error minimization of Firefly Algorithm over other metaheuristic optimization algorithms including Genetic Algorithms and Particle Swarm Optimization.

Approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) can be grouped into deterministic methods and Monte-Carlo-based methods. The former can often provide accurate and rapid inferences, but are typically associated with biases that are hard to quantify. The latter enjoy asymptotic consistency, but can suffer from high computational costs. In this paper we present a way of bridging the gap between deterministic and stochastic inference. Specifically, we suggest an efficient sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm for PGMs which can leverage the output from deterministic inference methods. While generally applicable, we show explicitly how this can be done with loopy belief propagation, expectation propagation, and Laplace approximations. The resulting algorithm can be viewed as a post-correction of the biases associated with these methods and, indeed, numerical results show clear improvements over the baseline deterministic methods as well as over "plain" SMC.

We consider the problem of detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples in deep reinforcement learning. In a value based reinforcement learning setting, we propose to use uncertainty estimation techniques directly on the agent's value estimating neural network to detect OOD samples. The focus of our work lies in analyzing the suitability of approximate Bayesian inference methods and related ensembling techniques that generate uncertainty estimates. Although prior work has shown that dropout-based variational inference techniques and bootstrap-based approaches can be used to model epistemic uncertainty, the suitability for detecting OOD samples in deep reinforcement learning remains an open question. Our results show that uncertainty estimation can be used to differentiate in- from out-of-distribution samples. Over the complete training process of the reinforcement learning agents, bootstrap-based approaches tend to produce more reliable epistemic uncertainty estimates, when compared to dropout-based approaches.

Matrix product states (MPS), a tensor network designed for one-dimensional quantum systems, has been recently proposed for generative modeling of natural data (such as images) in terms of `Born machine'. However, the exponential decay of correlation in MPS restricts its representation power heavily for modeling complex data such as natural images. In this work, we push forward the effort of applying tensor networks to machine learning by employing the Tree Tensor Network (TTN) which exhibits balanced performance in expressibility and efficient training and sampling. We design the tree tensor network to utilize the 2-dimensional prior of the natural images and develop sweeping learning and sampling algorithms which can be efficiently implemented utilizing Graphical Processing Units (GPU). We apply our model to random binary patterns and the binary MNIST datasets of handwritten digits. We show that TTN is superior to MPS for generative modeling in keeping correlation of pixels in natural images, as well as giving better log-likelihood scores in standard datasets of handwritten digits. We also compare its performance with state-of-the-art generative models such as the Variational AutoEncoders, Restricted Boltzmann machines, and PixelCNN. Finally, we discuss the future development of Tensor Network States in machine learning problems.

Artificial Neural Networks are connectionist systems that perform a given task by learning on examples without having prior knowledge about the task. This is done by finding an optimal point estimate for the weights in every node. Generally, the network using point estimates as weights perform well with large datasets, but they fail to express uncertainty in regions with little or no data, leading to overconfident decisions. In this paper, Bayesian Convolutional Neural Network (BayesCNN) using Variational Inference is proposed, that introduces probability distribution over the weights. Furthermore, the proposed BayesCNN architecture is applied to tasks like Image Classification, Image Super-Resolution and Generative Adversarial Networks. The results are compared to point-estimates based architectures on MNIST, CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100 datasets for Image CLassification task, on BSD300 dataset for Image Super Resolution task and on CIFAR10 dataset again for Generative Adversarial Network task. BayesCNN is based on Bayes by Backprop which derives a variational approximation to the true posterior. We, therefore, introduce the idea of applying two convolutional operations, one for the mean and one for the variance. Our proposed method not only achieves performances equivalent to frequentist inference in identical architectures but also incorporate a measurement for uncertainties and regularisation. It further eliminates the use of dropout in the model. Moreover, we predict how certain the model prediction is based on the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties and empirically show how the uncertainty can decrease, allowing the decisions made by the network to become more deterministic as the training accuracy increases. Finally, we propose ways to prune the Bayesian architecture and to make it more computational and time effective.