Large-scale probabilistic representations, including statistical knowledge bases and graphical models, are increasingly in demand. They are built by mining massive sources of structured and unstructured data, the latter often derived from natural language processing techniques. The very nature of the enterprise makes the extracted representations probabilistic. In particular, inducing relations and facts from noisy and incomplete sources via statistical machine learning models means that the labels are either already probabilistic, or that probabilities approximate confidence. While the progress is impressive, extracted representations essentially enforce the closed-world assumption, which means that all facts in the database are accorded the corresponding probability, but all other facts have probability zero. The CWA is deeply problematic in most machine learning contexts. A principled solution is needed for representing incomplete and indeterminate knowledge in such models, imprecise probability models such as credal networks being an example. In this work, we are interested in the foundational problem of learning such open-world probabilistic models. However, since exact inference in probabilistic graphical models is intractable, the paradigm of tractable learning has emerged to learn data structures (such as arithmetic circuits) that support efficient probabilistic querying. We show here how the computational machinery underlying tractable learning has to be generalized for imprecise probabilities. Our empirical evaluations demonstrate that our regime is also effective.

In this work, we study value function approximation in reinforcement learning (RL) problems with high dimensional state or action spaces via a generalized version of representation policy iteration (RPI). We consider the limitations of proto-value functions (PVFs) at accurately approximating the value function in low dimensions and we highlight the importance of features learning for an improved low-dimensional value function approximation. Then, we adopt different representation learning algorithm on graphs to learn the basis functions that best represent the value function. We empirically show that node2vec, an algorithm for scalable feature learning in networks, and the Variational Graph Auto-Encoder constantly outperform the commonly used smooth proto-value functions in low-dimensional feature space.

Human social behavior is structured by relationships. We form teams, groups, tribes, and alliances at all scales of human life. These structures guide multi-agent cooperation and competition, but when we observe others these underlying relationships are typically unobservable and hence must be inferred. Humans make these inferences intuitively and flexibly, often making rapid generalizations about the latent relationships that underlie behavior from just sparse and noisy observations. Rapid and accurate inferences are important for determining who to cooperate with, who to compete with, and how to cooperate in order to compete. Towards the goal of building machine-learning algorithms with human-like social intelligence, we develop a generative model of multi-agent action understanding based on a novel representation for these latent relationships called Composable Team Hierarchies (CTH). This representation is grounded in the formalism of stochastic games and multi-agent reinforcement learning. We use CTH as a target for Bayesian inference yielding a new algorithm for understanding behavior in groups that can both infer hidden relationships as well as predict future actions for multiple agents interacting together. Our algorithm rapidly recovers an underlying causal model of how agents relate in spatial stochastic games from just a few observations. The patterns of inference made by this algorithm closely correspond with human judgments and the algorithm makes the same rapid generalizations that people do.

In electroencephalogram (EEG) signal processing, finding the appropriate information from a dataset has been a big challenge for successful signal classification. The feature selection methods make it possible to solve this problem; however, the method selection is still under investigation to find out which feature can perform the best to extract the most proper features of the signal to improve the classification performance. In this study, we use the genetic algorithm (GA), a heuristic searching algorithm, to find the optimum combination of the feature extraction methods and the classifiers, in the brain-computer interface (BCI) applications. A BCI system can be practical if and only if it performs with high accuracy and high speed alongside each other. In the proposed method, GA performs as a searching engine to find the best combination of the features and classifications. The features used here are Katz, Higuchi, Petrosian, Sevcik, and box-counting dimension (BCD) feature extraction methods. These features are applied to the wavelet subbands and are classified with four classifiers such as adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), fuzzy k-nearest neighbors (FKNN), support vector machine (SVM) and linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Due to the huge number of features, the GA optimization is used to find the features with the optimum fitness value (FV). Results reveal that Katz fractal feature estimation method with LDA classification has the best FV. Consequently, due to the low computation time of the first Daubechies wavelet transformation in comparison to the original signal, the final selected methods contain the fractal features of the first coefficient of the detail subbands.

We develop a likelihood free inference procedure for conditioning a probabilistic model on a predicate. A predicate is a Boolean valued function which expresses a yes/no question about a domain. Our contribution, which we call predicate exchange, constructs a softened predicate which takes value in the unit interval [0, 1] as opposed to a simply true or false. Intuitively, 1 corresponds to true, and a high value (such as 0.999) corresponds to "nearly true" as determined by a distance metric. We define Boolean algebra for soft predicates, such that they can be negated, conjoined and disjoined arbitrarily. A softened predicate can serve as a tractable proxy to a likelihood function for approximate posterior inference. However, to target exact inference, we temper the relaxation by a temperature parameter, and add a accept/reject phase use to replica exchange Markov Chain Mont Carlo, which exchanges states between a sequence of models conditioned on predicates at varying temperatures. We describe a lightweight implementation of predicate exchange that it provides a language independent layer that can be implemented on top of existingn modeling formalisms.

Generalized Bayesian learning algorithms are increasingly popular in machine learning, due to their PAC generalization properties and flexibility. The present paper aims at providing a self-contained survey on the resulting PAC-Bayes framework and some of its main theoretical and algorithmic developments.

Domain adaptation has become a prominent problem setting in machine learning and related fields. This review asks the questions: when and how a classifier can learn from a source domain and generalize to a target domain. As for when, we review conditions that allow for cross-domain generalization error bounds. As for how, we present a categorization of approaches, divided into, what we refer to as, sample-based, feature-based and inference-based methods. Sample-based methods focus on weighting individual observations during training based on their importance to the target domain. Feature-based methods focus on mapping, projecting and representing features such that a source classifier performs well on the target domain and inference-based methods focus on alternative estimators, such as robust, minimax or Bayesian. Our categorization highlights recurring ideas and raises a number of questions important to further research.

In binary classification framework, we are interested in making cost sensitive label predictions in the presence of uniform/symmetric label noise. We first observe that $0$-$1$ Bayes classifiers are not (uniform) noise robust in cost sensitive setting. To circumvent this impossibility result, we present two schemes; unlike the existing methods, our schemes do not require noise rate. The first one uses $\alpha$-weighted $\gamma$-uneven margin squared loss function, $l_{\alpha, usq}$, which can handle cost sensitivity arising due to domain requirement (using user given $\alpha$) or class imbalance (by tuning $\gamma$) or both. However, we observe that $l_{\alpha, usq}$ Bayes classifiers are also not cost sensitive and noise robust. We show that regularized ERM of this loss function over the class of linear classifiers yields a cost sensitive uniform noise robust classifier as a solution of a system of linear equations. We also provide a performance bound for this classifier. The second scheme that we propose is a re-sampling based scheme that exploits the special structure of the uniform noise models and uses in-class probability estimates. Our computational experiments on some UCI datasets with class imbalance show that classifiers of our two schemes are on par with the existing methods and in fact better in some cases w.r.t. Accuracy and Arithmetic Mean, without using/tuning noise rate. We also consider other cost sensitive performance measures viz., F measure and Weighted Cost for evaluation.

The great challenge was to generalize the reconstruction of the arm for any background without using segmentation. For that purpose, several background images were synthetically generated and were overlaid by automated labelled masks (i.e., boolean mask of the arm in the visual field) by means of background subtraction (Figure 1(b)). An example of the results of the generated arm given the a joint angle configuration is shown in Figure 1(c). The most right generated image shows difficulties of the model to properly reconstruct the robot arm when the majority of it is outside the field of view. Anyhow, the statistical evaluation of the network, over all experiments, showed an accuracy of 84.4% when comparing the matching between the original versus the generated image mask.

The Laplace approximation has been one of the workhorses of Bayesian inference. It often delivers good approximations in practice despite the fact that it does not strictly take into account where the volume of posterior density lies. Variational approaches avoid this issue by explicitly minimising the Kullback-Leibler divergence DKL between a postulated posterior and the true (unnormalised) logarithmic posterior. However, they rely on a closed form DKL in order to update the variational parameters. To address this, stochastic versions of variational inference have been devised that approximate the intractable DKL with a Monte Carlo average. This approximation allows calculating gradients with respect to the variational parameters. However, variational methods often postulate a factorised Gaussian approximating posterior. In doing so, they sacrifice a-posteriori correlations. In this work, we propose a method that combines the Laplace approximation with the variational approach. The advantages are that we maintain: applicability on non-conjugate models, posterior correlations and a reduced number of free variational parameters. Numerical experiments demonstrate improvement over the Laplace approximation and variational inference with factorised Gaussian posteriors.