This paper documents the release of the ELKI data mining framework, version 0.7.5. ELKI is an open source (AGPLv3) data mining software written in Java. The focus of ELKI is research in algorithms, with an emphasis on unsupervised methods in cluster analysis and outlier detection. In order to achieve high performance and scalability, ELKI offers data index structures such as the R*-tree that can provide major performance gains. ELKI is designed to be easy to extend for researchers and students in this domain, and welcomes contributions of additional methods. ELKI aims at providing a large collection of highly parameterizable algorithms, in order to allow easy and fair evaluation and benchmarking of algorithms. We will first outline the motivation for this release, the plans for the future, and then give a brief overview over the new functionality in this version. We also include an appendix presenting an overview on the overall implemented functionality.

Consider the following problem: given two arbitrary densities $q_1,q_2$ and a sample-access to an unknown target density $p$, find which of the $q_i$'s is closer to $p$ in total variation. A remarkable result due to Yatracos shows that this problem is tractable in the following sense: there exists an algorithm that uses $O(\epsilon^{-2})$ samples from $p$ and outputs~$q_i$ such that with high probability, $TV(q_i,p) \leq 3\cdot\mathsf{opt} + \epsilon$, where $\mathsf{opt}= \min\{TV(q_1,p),TV(q_2,p)\}$. Moreover, this result extends to any finite class of densities $\mathcal{Q}$: there exists an algorithm that outputs the best density in $\mathcal{Q}$ up to a multiplicative approximation factor of 3. We complement and extend this result by showing that: (i) the factor 3 can not be improved if one restricts the algorithm to output a density from $\mathcal{Q}$, and (ii) if one allows the algorithm to output arbitrary densities (e.g.\ a mixture of densities from $\mathcal{Q}$), then the approximation factor can be reduced to 2, which is optimal. In particular this demonstrates an advantage of improper learning over proper in this setup. We develop two approaches to achieve the optimal approximation factor of 2: an adaptive one and a static one. Both approaches are based on a geometric point of view of the problem and rely on estimating surrogate metrics to the total variation. Our sample complexity bounds exploit techniques from {\it Adaptive Data Analysis}.

Making sense of a dataset in an automatic and unsupervised fashion is a challenging problem in statistics and AI. Classical approaches for {exploratory data analysis} are usually not flexible enough to deal with the uncertainty inherent to real-world data: they are often restricted to fixed latent interaction models and homogeneous likelihoods; they are sensitive to missing, corrupt and anomalous data; moreover, their expressiveness generally comes at the price of intractable inference. As a result, supervision from statisticians is usually needed to find the right model for the data. However, since domain experts are not necessarily also experts in statistics, we propose Automatic Bayesian Density Analysis (ABDA) to make exploratory data analysis accessible at large. Specifically, ABDA allows for automatic and efficient missing value estimation, statistical data type and likelihood discovery, anomaly detection and dependency structure mining, on top of providing accurate density estimation. Extensive empirical evidence shows that ABDA is a suitable tool for automatic exploratory analysis of mixed continuous and discrete tabular data.

This is because the concentration of energy at a specific range of frequencies might be indicative of mechanical faults [1], cardiac anomalies [2], astronomical discoveries [3, 4], and whale calls from submarine audio recordings [5] to name a few. The standard practice to isolate components within a specific frequency range from a time-series observation, referred to as filtering, isto convolve the observations with an object called linear filter. This convolution removes all frequencies that do not correspond to the desired frequency range, thus, filtering out unimportant frequencies. Thetheoretical rationale behind this approach is supported by the application of the Convolution Theorem [6] to power spectral densities (PSD): the PSD of a filtered time series corresponds to the PSD of the linear filter (user-designed) multiplied by the PSD of the observed time series (not controllable). This result allows for designing thelinear filter so as to remove unwanted frequency components to then perform the numerical convolution.

Meteorological forecasting provides reliable prediction about the future weather within a given interval of time. Meteorological forecasting can be viewed as a form of hybrid diagnostic reasoning and can be mapped onto an integrated conceptual framework. The automation of the forecasting process would be helpful in a number of contexts, in particular: when the amount of data is too wide to be dealt with manually; to support forecasters education; when forecasting about underpopulated geographic areas is not interesting for everyday life (and then is out from human forecasters' tasks) but is central for tourism sponsorship. We present logic MeteoLOG, a framework that models the main steps of the reasoner the forecaster adopts to provide a bulletin. MeteoLOG rests on several traditions, mainly on fuzzy, temporal and probabilistic logics. On this basis, we also introduce the algorithm Tournament, that transforms a set of MeteoLOG rules into a defeasible theory, that can be implemented into an automatic reasoner. We finally propose an example that models a real world forecasting scenario.

Discrimination between non-stationarity and long-range dependency is a difficult and long-standing issue in modelling financial time series. This paper uses an adaptive spectral technique which jointly models the non-stationarity and dependency of financial time series in a non-parametric fashion assuming that the time series consists of a finite, but unknown number, of locally stationary processes, the locations of which are also unknown. The model allows a non-parametric estimate of the dependency structure by modelling the auto-covariance function in the spectral domain. All our estimates are made within a Bayesian framework where we use aReversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for inference. We study the frequentist properties of our estimates via a simulation study, and present a novel way of generating time series data from a nonparametric spectrum. Results indicate that our techniques perform well across a range of data generating processes. We apply our method to a number of real examples and our results indicate that several financial time series exhibit both long-range dependency and non-stationarity.

Many applications in preference learning assume that decisions come from the maximization of a stable utility function. Yet a large experimental literature shows that individual choices and judgements can be affected by "irrelevant" aspects of the context in which they are made. An important class of such contexts is the composition of the choice set. In this work, our goal is to discover such choice set effects from raw choice data. We introduce an extension of the Multinomial Logit (MNL) model, called the context dependent random utility model (CDM), which allows for a particular class of choice set effects. We show that the CDM can be thought of as a second-order approximation to a general choice system, can be inferred optimally using maximum likelihood and, importantly, is easily interpretable. We apply the CDM to both real and simulated choice data to perform principled exploratory analyses for the presence of choice set effects.

Increasingly complex datasets pose a number of challenges for Bayesian inference. Conventional posterior sampling based on Markov chain Monte Carlo can be too computationally intensive, is serial in nature and mixes poorly between posterior modes. Further, all models are misspecified, which brings into question the validity of the conventional Bayesian update. We present a scalable Bayesian nonparametric learning routine that enables posterior sampling through the optimization of suitably randomized objective functions. A Dirichlet process prior on the unknown data distribution accounts for model misspecification, and admits an embarrassingly parallel posterior bootstrap algorithm that generates independent and exact samples from the nonparametric posterior distribution. Our method is particularly adept at sampling from multimodal posterior distributions via a random restart mechanism. We demonstrate our method on Gaussian mixture model and sparse logistic regression examples.

This paper introduces Bounded Fuzzy Possibilistic Method (BFPM) by addressing several issues that previous clustering/classification methods have not considered. In fuzzy clustering, object's membership values should sum to 1. Hence, any object may obtain full membership in at most one cluster. Possibilistic clustering methods remove this restriction. However, BFPM differs from previous fuzzy and possibilistic clustering approaches by allowing the membership function to take larger values with respect to all clusters. Furthermore, in BFPM, a data object can have full membership in multiple clusters or even in all clusters. BFPM relaxes the boundary conditions (restrictions) in membership assignment. The proposed methodology satisfies the necessity of obtaining full memberships and overcomes the issues with conventional methods on dealing with overlapping. Analysing the objects' movements from their own cluster to another (mutation) is also proposed in this paper. BFPM has been applied in different domains in geometry, set theory, anomaly detection, risk management, diagnosis diseases, and other disciplines. Validity and comparison indexes have been also used to evaluate the accuracy of BFPM. BFPM has been evaluated in terms of accuracy, fuzzification constant (different norms), objects' movement analysis, and covering diversity. The promising results prove the importance of considering the proposed methodology in learning methods to track the behaviour of data objects, in addition to obtain accurate results.

Hyperbolic space is a geometry that is known to be well-suited for representation learning of data with an underlying hierarchical structure. In this paper, we present a novel hyperbolic distribution called \textit{pseudo-hyperbolic Gaussian}, a Gaussian-like distribution on hyperbolic space whose density can be evaluated analytically and differentiated with respect to the parameters. Our distribution enables the gradient-based learning of the probabilistic models on hyperbolic space that could never have been considered before. Also, we can sample from this hyperbolic probability distribution without resorting to auxiliary means like rejection sampling. As applications of our distribution, we develop a hyperbolic-analog of variational autoencoder and a method of probabilistic word embedding on hyperbolic space. We demonstrate the efficacy of our distribution on various datasets including MNIST, Atari 2600 Breakout, and WordNet.