Consider a setting with $N$ independent individuals, each with an unknown parameter, $p_i \in [0, 1]$ drawn from some unknown distribution $P^\star$. After observing the outcomes of $t$ independent Bernoulli trials, i.e., $X_i \sim \text{Binomial}(t, p_i)$ per individual, our objective is to accurately estimate $P^\star$. This problem arises in numerous domains, including the social sciences, psychology, health-care, and biology, where the size of the population under study is usually large while the number of observations per individual is often limited. Our main result shows that, in the regime where $t \ll N$, the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is both statistically minimax optimal and efficiently computable. Precisely, for sufficiently large $N$, the MLE achieves the information theoretic optimal error bound of $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{t})$ for $t < c\log{N}$, with regards to the earth mover's distance (between the estimated and true distributions). More generally, in an exponentially large interval of $t$ beyond $c \log{N}$, the MLE achieves the minimax error bound of $\mathcal{O}(\frac{1}{\sqrt{t\log N}})$. In contrast, regardless of how large $N$ is, the naive "plug-in" estimator for this problem only achieves the sub-optimal error of $\Theta(\frac{1}{\sqrt{t}})$.

The automated construction of coarse-grained models represents a pivotal component in computer simulation of physical systems and is a key enabler in various analysis and design tasks related to uncertainty quantification. Pertinent methods are severely inhibited by the high-dimension of the parametric input and the limited number of training input/output pairs that can be generated when computationally demanding forward models are considered. Such cases are frequently encountered in the modeling of random heterogeneous media where the scale of the microstructure necessitates the use of high-dimensional random vectors and very fine discretizations of the governing equations. The present paper proposes a probabilistic Machine Learning framework that is capable of operating in the presence of Small Data by exploiting aspects of the physical structure of the problem as well as contextual knowledge. As a result, it can perform comparably well under extrapolative conditions. It unifies the tasks of dimensionality and model-order reduction through an encoder-decoder scheme that simultaneously identifies a sparse set of salient lower-dimensional microstructural features and calibrates an inexpensive, coarse-grained model which is predictive of the output. Information loss is accounted for and quantified in the form of probabilistic predictive estimates. The learning engine is based on Stochastic Variational Inference. We demonstrate how the variational objectives can be used not only to train the coarse-grained model, but also to suggest refinements that lead to improved predictions.

Flow-based generative models, conceptually attractive due to tractability of both the exact log-likelihood computation and latent-variable inference, and efficiency of both training and sampling, has led to a number of impressive empirical successes and spawned many advanced variants and theoretical investigations. Despite their computational efficiency, the density estimation performance of flow-based generative models significantly falls behind those of state-of-the-art autoregressive models. In this work, we introduce masked convolutional generative flow (MaCow), a simple yet effective architecture of generative flow using masked convolution. By restricting the local connectivity in a small kernel, MaCow enjoys the properties of fast and stable training, and efficient sampling, while achieving significant improvements over Glow for density estimation on standard image benchmarks, considerably narrowing the gap to autoregressive models.

The posteriors over neural network weights are high dimensional and multimodal. Each mode typically characterizes a meaningfully different representation of the data. We develop Cyclical Stochastic Gradient MCMC (SG-MCMC) to automatically explore such distributions. In particular, we propose a cyclical stepsize schedule, where larger steps discover new modes, and smaller steps characterize each mode. We prove that our proposed learning rate schedule provides faster convergence to samples from a stationary distribution than SG-MCMC with standard decaying schedules. Moreover, we provide extensive experimental results to demonstrate the effectiveness of cyclical SG-MCMC in learning complex multimodal distributions, especially for fully Bayesian inference with modern deep neural networks.

In the changing tech scenario in India, noted and well-established institutes have now also started to step forward and train students as well as the professionals in artificial intelligence and machine learning. The institutes are providing both the current needs of algorithms and mathematical insights as well as practical experiences. In this article, we list 5 tier-1 institutes that have added courses on artificial intelligence in India. About The Programme: This institute launched a dual degree specialisation in data science as well as in robotics in the year 2018. Any B.Tech student can enroll in this programme based on the CGPA cut-off of 8.0 at the end of the 5th semester.

This paper documents the release of the ELKI data mining framework, version 0.7.5. ELKI is an open source (AGPLv3) data mining software written in Java. The focus of ELKI is research in algorithms, with an emphasis on unsupervised methods in cluster analysis and outlier detection. In order to achieve high performance and scalability, ELKI offers data index structures such as the R*-tree that can provide major performance gains. ELKI is designed to be easy to extend for researchers and students in this domain, and welcomes contributions of additional methods. ELKI aims at providing a large collection of highly parameterizable algorithms, in order to allow easy and fair evaluation and benchmarking of algorithms. We will first outline the motivation for this release, the plans for the future, and then give a brief overview over the new functionality in this version. We also include an appendix presenting an overview on the overall implemented functionality.

Consider the following problem: given two arbitrary densities $q_1,q_2$ and a sample-access to an unknown target density $p$, find which of the $q_i$'s is closer to $p$ in total variation. A remarkable result due to Yatracos shows that this problem is tractable in the following sense: there exists an algorithm that uses $O(\epsilon^{-2})$ samples from $p$ and outputs~$q_i$ such that with high probability, $TV(q_i,p) \leq 3\cdot\mathsf{opt} + \epsilon$, where $\mathsf{opt}= \min\{TV(q_1,p),TV(q_2,p)\}$. Moreover, this result extends to any finite class of densities $\mathcal{Q}$: there exists an algorithm that outputs the best density in $\mathcal{Q}$ up to a multiplicative approximation factor of 3. We complement and extend this result by showing that: (i) the factor 3 can not be improved if one restricts the algorithm to output a density from $\mathcal{Q}$, and (ii) if one allows the algorithm to output arbitrary densities (e.g.\ a mixture of densities from $\mathcal{Q}$), then the approximation factor can be reduced to 2, which is optimal. In particular this demonstrates an advantage of improper learning over proper in this setup. We develop two approaches to achieve the optimal approximation factor of 2: an adaptive one and a static one. Both approaches are based on a geometric point of view of the problem and rely on estimating surrogate metrics to the total variation. Our sample complexity bounds exploit techniques from {\it Adaptive Data Analysis}.

Making sense of a dataset in an automatic and unsupervised fashion is a challenging problem in statistics and AI. Classical approaches for {exploratory data analysis} are usually not flexible enough to deal with the uncertainty inherent to real-world data: they are often restricted to fixed latent interaction models and homogeneous likelihoods; they are sensitive to missing, corrupt and anomalous data; moreover, their expressiveness generally comes at the price of intractable inference. As a result, supervision from statisticians is usually needed to find the right model for the data. However, since domain experts are not necessarily also experts in statistics, we propose Automatic Bayesian Density Analysis (ABDA) to make exploratory data analysis accessible at large. Specifically, ABDA allows for automatic and efficient missing value estimation, statistical data type and likelihood discovery, anomaly detection and dependency structure mining, on top of providing accurate density estimation. Extensive empirical evidence shows that ABDA is a suitable tool for automatic exploratory analysis of mixed continuous and discrete tabular data.

This is because the concentration of energy at a specific range of frequencies might be indicative of mechanical faults [1], cardiac anomalies [2], astronomical discoveries [3, 4], and whale calls from submarine audio recordings [5] to name a few. The standard practice to isolate components within a specific frequency range from a time-series observation, referred to as filtering, isto convolve the observations with an object called linear filter. This convolution removes all frequencies that do not correspond to the desired frequency range, thus, filtering out unimportant frequencies. Thetheoretical rationale behind this approach is supported by the application of the Convolution Theorem [6] to power spectral densities (PSD): the PSD of a filtered time series corresponds to the PSD of the linear filter (user-designed) multiplied by the PSD of the observed time series (not controllable). This result allows for designing thelinear filter so as to remove unwanted frequency components to then perform the numerical convolution.

Meteorological forecasting provides reliable prediction about the future weather within a given interval of time. Meteorological forecasting can be viewed as a form of hybrid diagnostic reasoning and can be mapped onto an integrated conceptual framework. The automation of the forecasting process would be helpful in a number of contexts, in particular: when the amount of data is too wide to be dealt with manually; to support forecasters education; when forecasting about underpopulated geographic areas is not interesting for everyday life (and then is out from human forecasters' tasks) but is central for tourism sponsorship. We present logic MeteoLOG, a framework that models the main steps of the reasoner the forecaster adopts to provide a bulletin. MeteoLOG rests on several traditions, mainly on fuzzy, temporal and probabilistic logics. On this basis, we also introduce the algorithm Tournament, that transforms a set of MeteoLOG rules into a defeasible theory, that can be implemented into an automatic reasoner. We finally propose an example that models a real world forecasting scenario.