The superior interpretability and uncertainty modeling ability of Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy system (TSK FS) make it possible to describe complex nonlinear systems intuitively and efficiently. However, classical TSK FS usually adopts the whole feature space of the data for model construction, which can result in lengthy rules for high-dimensional data and lead to degeneration in interpretability. Furthermore, for highly nonlinear modeling task, it is usually necessary to use a large number of rules which further weakens the clarity and interpretability of TSK FS. To address these issues, a concise zero-order TSK FS construction method, called ESSC-SL-CTSK-FS, is proposed in this paper by integrating the techniques of enhanced soft subspace clustering (ESSC) and sparse learning (SL). In this method, ESSC is used to generate the antecedents and various sparse subspace for different fuzzy rules, whereas SL is used to optimize the consequent parameters of the fuzzy rules, based on which the number of fuzzy rules can be effectively reduced. Finally, the proposed ESSC-SL-CTSK-FS method is used to construct con-cise zero-order TSK FS that can explain the scenes in high-dimensional data modeling more clearly and easily. Experiments are conducted on various real-world datasets to confirm the advantages.

Model inference, such as model comparison, model checking, and model selection, is an important part of model development. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) is a general approach for assessing the generalizability of a model, but unfortunately, LOO does not scale well to large datasets. We propose a combination of using approximate inference techniques and probability-proportional-to-size-sampling (PPS) for fast LOO model evaluation for large datasets. We provide both theoretical and empirical results showing good properties for large data.

Continual learning aims to enable machine learning models to learn a general solution space for past and future tasks in a sequential manner. Conventional models tend to forget the knowledge of previous tasks while learning a new task, a phenomenon known as catastrophic forgetting. When using Bayesian models in continual learning, knowledge from previous tasks can be retained in two ways: (i) posterior distributions over the parameters, containing the knowledge gained from inference in previous tasks, which then serve as the priors for the following task; (ii) coresets, containing knowledge of data distributions of previous tasks. Here, we show that Bayesian continual learning can be facilitated in terms of these two means through the use of natural gradients and Stein gradients respectively.

Learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) from data is a challenging task both in theory and in practice, because the number of possible DAGs scales superexponentially with the number of nodes. In this paper, we study the problem of learning an optimal DAG from continuous observational data. We cast this problem in the form of a mathematical programming model which can naturally incorporate a super-structure in order to reduce the set of possible candidate DAGs. We use the penalized negative log-likelihood score function with both $\ell_0$ and $\ell_1$ regularizations and propose a new mixed-integer quadratic optimization (MIQO) model, referred to as a layered network (LN) formulation. The LN formulation is a compact model, which enjoys as tight an optimal continuous relaxation value as the stronger but larger formulations under a mild condition. Computational results indicate that the proposed formulation outperforms existing mathematical formulations and scales better than available algorithms that can solve the same problem with only $\ell_1$ regularization. In particular, the LN formulation clearly outperforms existing methods in terms of computational time needed to find an optimal DAG in the presence of a sparse super-structure.

Gaussian processes (GP) for machine learning have been studied systematically over the past two decades and they are by now widely used in a number of diverse applications. However, GP kernel design and the associated hyper-parameter optimization are still hard and to a large extend open problems. In this paper, we consider the task of GP regression for time series modeling and analysis. The underlying stationary kernel can be approximated arbitrarily close by a new proposed grid spectral mixture (GSM) kernel, which turns out to be a linear combination of low-rank sub-kernels. In the case where a large number of the sub-kernels are used, either the Nystr\"{o}m or the random Fourier feature approximations can be adopted to deal efficiently with the computational demands. The unknown GP hyper-parameters consist of the non-negative weights of all sub-kernels as well as the noise variance; their estimation is performed via the maximum-likelihood (ML) estimation framework. Two efficient numerical optimization methods for solving the unknown hyper-parameters are derived, including a sequential majorization-minimization (MM) method and a non-linearly constrained alternating direction of multiplier method (ADMM). The MM matches perfectly with the proven low-rank property of the proposed GSM sub-kernels and turns out to be a part of efficiency, stable, and efficient solver, while the ADMM has the potential to generate better local minimum in terms of the test MSE. Experimental results, based on various classic time series data sets, corroborate that the proposed GSM kernel-based GP regression model outperforms several salient competitors of similar kind in terms of prediction mean-squared-error and numerical stability.

In statistics and machine learning, classification with abstention, also known as classification with a reject option, is an extension of the standard setting of classification, in which the learner is allowed to refuse a prediction for a given query instance; research on this setting dates back to early work by Chow (1970) and Hellman (1970) and remains to be an important topic till today (Cortes et al., 2016). For the learner, the main reason to abstain is a lack of certainty about the corresponding outcome--refusing or at least deferring a decision might then be better than taking a high risk of a wrong decision. Nowadays, there are many machine learning problems in which complex, structured predictions are sought (instead of scalar values, like in classification and regression). For such problems, the idea of abstaining from a prediction can be generalized toward partial abstention: Instead of predicting the entire structure, the learner predicts only parts of it, namely those for which it is certain enough. This idea has already been realized, for example, for the problem of label ranking, where predictions are rankings (Cheng et al., 2012).

Decision trees are flexible models that are well suited for many statistical regression problems. In a Bayesian framework for regression trees, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) search algorithms are required to generate samples of tree models according to their posterior probabilities. The critical component of such an MCMC algorithm is to construct good Metropolis-Hastings steps for updating the tree topology. However, such algorithms frequently suffering from local mode stickiness and poor mixing. As a result, the algorithms are slow to converge. Hitherto, authors have primarily used discrete-time birth/death mechanisms for Bayesian (sums of) regression tree models to explore the model space. These algorithms are efficient only if the acceptance rate is high which is not always the case. Here we overcome this issue by developing a new search algorithm which is based on a continuous-time birth-death Markov process. This search algorithm explores the model space by jumping between parameter spaces corresponding to different tree structures. In the proposed algorithm, the moves between models are always accepted which can dramatically improve the convergence and mixing properties of the MCMC algorithm. We provide theoretical support of the algorithm for Bayesian regression tree models and demonstrate its performance.

Convolutional dictionary learning (CDL) has become a popular method for learning sparse representations from data. State-of-the-art algorithms perform dictionary learning (DL) through an optimization-based alternating-minimization procedure that comprises a sparse coding and a dictionary update step respectively. Here, we draw connections between CDL and neural networks by proposing an architecture for CDL termed the constrained recurrent sparse auto-encoder (CRsAE). We leverage the interpretation of the alternating-minimization algorithm for DL as an Expectation-Maximization algorithm to develop auto-encoders (AEs) that, for the first time, enable the simultaneous training of the dictionary and regularization parameter. The forward pass of the encoder, which performs sparse coding, solves the E-step using an encoding matrix and a soft-thresholding non-linearity imposed by the FISTA algorithm. The encoder in this regard is a variant of residual and recurrent neural networks. The M-step is implemented via a two-stage back-propagation. In the first stage, we perform back-propagation through the AE formed by the encoder and a linear decoder whose parameters are tied to the encoder. This stage parallels the dictionary update step in DL. In the second stage, we update the regularization parameter by performing back-propagation through the encoder using a loss function that includes a prior on the parameter motivated by Bayesian statistics. We leverage GPUs to achieve significant computational gains relative to state-of-the-art optimization-based approaches to CDL. We apply CRsAE to spike sorting, the problem of identifying the time of occurrence of neural action potentials in recordings of electrical activity from the brain. We demonstrate on recordings lasting hours that CRsAE speeds up spike sorting by 900x compared to notoriously slow classical algorithms based on convex optimization.

In many applications, observed data are influenced by some combination of latent causes. For example, suppose sensors are placed inside a building to record responses such as temperature, humidity, power consumption and noise levels. These random, observed responses are typically affected by many unobserved, latent factors (or features) within the building such as the number of individuals, the turning on and off of electrical devices, power surges, etc. These latent factors are usually present for a contiguous period of time before disappearing; further, multiple factors could be present at a time. This paper develops new probabilistic methodology and inference methods for random object generation influenced by latent features exhibiting temporal persistence. Every datum is associated with subsets of a potentially infinite number of hidden, persistent features that account for temporal dynamics in an observation. The ensuing class of dynamic models constructed by adapting the Indian Buffet Process --- a probability measure on the space of random, unbounded binary matrices --- finds use in a variety of applications arising in operations, signal processing, biomedicine, marketing, image analysis, etc. Illustrations using synthetic and real data are provided.

Optimism about the poorly understood states and actions is the main driving force of exploration for many provably-efficient reinforcement learning algorithms. We propose optimism in the face of sensible value functions (OFVF)- a novel data-driven Bayesian algorithm to constructing Plausibility sets for MDPs to explore robustly minimizing the worst case exploration cost. The method computes policies with tighter optimistic estimates for exploration by introducing two new ideas. First, it is based on Bayesian posterior distributions rather than distribution-free bounds. Second, OFVF does not construct plausibility sets as simple confidence intervals. Confidence intervals as plausibility sets are a sufficient but not a necessary condition. OFVF uses the structure of the value function to optimize the location and shape of the plausibility set to guarantee upper bounds directly without necessarily enforcing the requirement for the set to be a confidence interval. OFVF proceeds in an episodic manner, where the duration of the episode is fixed and known. Our algorithm is inherently Bayesian and can leverage prior information. Our theoretical analysis shows the robustness of OFVF, and the empirical results demonstrate its practical promise.