Uncertainty
Learning to Search Efficiently Using Comparisons
Chumbalov, Daniyar, Maystre, Lucas, Grossglauser, Matthias
We consider the problem of searching in a set of items by using pairwise comparisons. We aim to locate a target item $t$ by asking an oracle questions of the form "Which item from the pair $(i,j)$ is more similar to t?". We assume a blind setting, where no item features are available to guide the search process; only the oracle sees the features in order to generate an answer. Previous approaches for this problem either assume noiseless answers, or they scale poorly in the number of items, both of which preclude practical applications. In this paper, we present a new scalable learning framework called learn2search that performs efficient comparison-based search on a set of items despite the presence of noise in the answers. Items live in a space of latent features, and we posit a probabilistic model for the oracle comparing two items $i$ and $j$ with respect to a target $t$. Our algorithm maintains its own representation of the space of items, which it learns incrementally based on past searches. We evaluate the performance of learn2search on both synthetic and real-world data, and show that it learns to search more and more efficiently, over time matching the performance of a scheme with access to the item features.
Adaptive surrogate models for parametric studies
The computational effort for the evaluation of numerical simulations based on e.g. the finite-element method is high. Metamodels can be utilized to create a low-cost alternative. However the number of required samples for the creation of a sufficient metamodel should be kept low, which can be achieved by using adaptive sampling techniques. In this Master thesis adaptive sampling techniques are investigated for their use in creating metamodels with the Kriging technique, which interpolates values by a Gaussian process governed by prior covariances. The Kriging framework with extension to multifidelity problems is presented and utilized to compare adaptive sampling techniques found in the literature for benchmark problems as well as applications for contact mechanics. This thesis offers the first comprehensive comparison of a large spectrum of adaptive techniques for the Kriging framework. Furthermore a multitude of adaptive techniques is introduced to multifidelity Kriging as well as well as to a Kriging model with reduced hyperparameter dimension called partial least squares Kriging. In addition, an innovative adaptive scheme for binary classification is presented and tested for identifying chaotic motion of a Duffing's type oscillator.
Evidence Propagation and Consensus Formation in Noisy Environments
Crosscombe, Michael, Lawry, Jonathan
We study the effectiveness of consensus formation in multi-agent systems where there is both belief updating based on direct evidence and also belief combination between agents. In particular, we consider the scenario in which a population of agents collaborate on the best-of-n problem where the aim is to reach a consensus about which is the best (alternatively, true) state from amongst a set of states, each with a different quality value (or level of evidence). Agents' beliefs are represented within Dempster-Shafer theory by mass functions and we invegate the macro-level properties of four well-known belief combination operators for this multi-agent consensus formation problem: Dempster's rule, Yager's rule, Dubois & Prade's operator and the averaging operator. The convergence properties of the operators are considered and simulation experiments are conducted for different evidence rates and noise levels. Results show that a combination of updating from direct evidence and belief combination between agents results in better consensus to the best state than does evidence updating alone. We also find that in this framework the operators are robust to noise. Broadly, Dubois & Prade's operator results in better convergence to the best state. Finally, we consider how well the Dempster-Shafer approach to the best-of-n problem scales to large numbers of states.
Rotation Invariant Householder Parameterization for Bayesian PCA
Nirwan, Rajbir S., Bertschinger, Nils
We consider probabilistic PCA and related factor models from a Bayesian perspective. These models are in general not identifiable as the likelihood has a rotational symmetry. This gives rise to complicated posterior distributions with continuous subspaces of equal density and thus hinders efficiency of inference as well as interpretation of obtained parameters. In particular, posterior averages over factor loadings become meaningless and only model predictions are unambiguous. Here, we propose a parameterization based on Householder transformations, which remove the rotational symmetry of the posterior. Furthermore, by relying on results from random matrix theory, we establish the parameter distribution which leaves the model unchanged compared to the original rotationally symmetric formulation. In particular, we avoid the need to compute the Jacobian determinant of the parameter transformation. This allows us to efficiently implement probabilistic PCA in a rotation invariant fashion in any state of the art toolbox. Here, we implemented our model in the probabilistic programming language Stan and illustrate it on several examples.
Towards a Quantum-Like Cognitive Architecture for Decision-Making
Moreira, Catarina, Fell, Lauren, Dehdashti, Shahram, Bruza, Peter, Wichert, Andreas
We propose an alternative and unifying framework for decision-making that, by using quantum mechanics, provides more generalised cognitive and decision models with the ability to represent more information than classical models. This framework can accommodate and predict several cognitive biases reported in Lieder & Griffiths without heavy reliance on heuristics nor on assumptions of the computational resources of the mind. Expected utility theory and classical probabilities tell us what people should do if employing traditionally rational thought, but do not tell us what people do in reality (Machina, 2009). Under this principle, L&G propose an architecture for cognition that can serve as an intermediary layer between Neuroscience and Computation. Whilst instances where large expenditures of cognitive resources occur are theoretically alluded to, the model primarily assumes a preference for fast, heuristic-based processing.
Tree-wise Distribution Sensitive hashing: Efficient Maximum likelihood Classification by joint dimensionality reduction in known probabilistic settings
Davoodi, Arash Gholami, Baweja, Anubhav, Mohimani, Hosein
We consider the problem of maximum likelihood classification of a high dimensional data point y to billions of classes $x_1,...,x_N$, where the conditional probability p(y|x) is known. In the most general case, the complexity of the brute-force method for this classification grows linearly, O(N), with the number of classes N. Efficient multiclass classification methods have been introduced to solve this problem with logarithmic complexity. However, these methods suffer from the curse of dimensionality, i.e., in large dimensions their complexity approaches $O(N)$ per query data point. In the special case where the conditional probability distribution $p(y|x)$ is a Gaussian centered at x, i.e., $p(y|x) \propto N (x,\sigma)$, the maximum likelihood classification reduces to the nearest neighbor search with the Euclidean norm. Sublinear methods based on locality sensitive hashing (LSH) have been introduced to solve an approximate version of the nearest neighbor search for high dimensional data. Inspired by these advances, here we introduce distribution sensitive hashing (DSH) to solve an approximate version of the maximum likelihood classification problem through joint dimensionality reduction. In the case of discrete probability distributions, we design TreeDSH, a universal family of distribution sensitive hashes based on the decision trees, and show that their complexity grow sub-linearly. Theory and simulation presented in this paper demonstrate that TreeDSH is more efficient than LSH-hamming and Min-Hashing schemes. Finally, we apply TreeDSH to the problem of peptide identification from mass spectrometry data.
Descriptive evaluation of students using fuzzy approximate reasoning
Annabestani, Mohsen, Rowhanimanesh, Alireza, Mizani, Aylar, Rezaei, Akram
In recent years, descriptive evaluation has been introduced as a new model for educational evaluation of Iranian students. The current descriptive evaluation method is based on four-valued logic. Assessing all students with only four values is led to a lack of relative justice and the creation of unrealistic equality. Also, the complexity of the evaluation process in the current method increases teacher errors likelihood. As a suitable solution, in this paper, a fuzzy descriptive evaluation system has been proposed. The proposed method is based on fuzzy logic, which is an infinite-valued logic and it can perform approximate reasoning on natural language propositions. By the proposed fuzzy system, student assessment is performed over the school year with infinite values instead of four values. But to eliminate the diversity of assigned values to students, at the end of the school year, the calculated values for each student will be rounded to the nearest value of the four standard values of the current descriptive evaluation system. It can be implemented easily in an appropriate smartphone app, which makes it much easier for the teachers to evaluate the evaluation process. In this paper, the evaluation process of the elementary third-grade mathematics course in Iran during the period from the beginning of the MEHR (The Seventh month of Iran) to the end of BAHMAN (The Eleventh Month of Iran) is examined by the proposed system. To evaluate the validity of this system, the proposed method has been simulated in MATLAB software.
A Probabilistic Framework for Location Inference from Social Media
Qian, Yujie, Tang, Jie, Yang, Zhilin, Huang, Binxuan, Wei, Wei, Carley, Kathleen M.
We study the extent to which we can infer users' geographical locations from social media. Location inference from social media can benefit many applications, such as disaster management, targeted advertising, and news content tailoring. The challenges, however, lie in the limited amount of labeled data and the large scale of social networks. In this paper, we formalize the problem of inferring location from social media into a semi-supervised factor graph model (SSFGM). The model provides a probabilistic framework in which various sources of information (e.g., content and social network) can be combined together. We design a two-layer neural network to learn feature representations, and incorporate the learned latent features into SSFGM. To deal with the large-scale problem, we propose a Two-Chain Sampling (TCS) algorithm to learn SSFGM. The algorithm achieves a good trade-off between accuracy and efficiency. Experiments on Twitter and Weibo show that the proposed TCS algorithm for SSFGM can substantially improve the inference accuracy over several state-of-the-art methods. More importantly, TCS achieves over 100x speedup comparing with traditional propagation-based methods (e.g., loopy belief propagation).
A New Anchor Word Selection Method for the Separable Topic Discovery
He, Kun, Wang, Wu, Wang, Xiaosen, Hopcroft, John E.
Separable Non-negative Matrix Factorization (SNMF) is an important method for topic modeling, where "separable" assumes every topic contains at least one anchor word, defined as a word that has non-zero probability only on that topic. SNMF focuses on the word co-occurrence patterns to reveal topics by two steps: anchor word selection and topic recovery. The quality of the anchor words strongly influences the quality of the extracted topics. Existing anchor word selection algorithm is to greedily find an approximate convex hull in a high-dimensional word co-occurrence space. In this work, we propose a new method for the anchor word selection by associating the word co-occurrence probability with the words similarity and assuming that the most different words on semantic are potential candidates for the anchor words. Therefore, if the similarity of a word-pair is very low, then the two words are very likely to be the anchor words. According to the statistical information of text corpora, we can get the similarity of all word-pairs. We build the word similarity graph where the nodes correspond to words and weights on edges stand for the word-pair similarity. Following this way, we design a greedy method to find a minimum edge-weight anchor clique of a given size in the graph for the anchor word selection. Extensive experiments on real-world corpus demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed anchor word selection method that outperforms the common convex hull-based methods on the revealed topic quality. Meanwhile, our method is much faster than typical SNMF based method.
A Novel Adaptive Kernel for the RBF Neural Networks
Khan, Shujaat, Naseem, Imran, Togneri, Roberto, Bennamoun, Mohammed
Abstract--In this paper, we propose a novel adaptive kernel for the radial basis function (RBF) neural networks. In [12] a novel RBF network with the multi-kernel is proposed to obtain an optimized and I. INTRODUCTION The unknown centres of the multikernels The RBF neural networks have shown excellent performance are determined by an improved k-means clustering in a number of problems of practical interest. An orthogonal least squares (OLS) algorithm is reservoirs of brine are analyzed for physicochemical properties used to determine the remaining parameters. The convergence of the ACA is analyzed by the [3] the RBF kernel is used to predict the pressure gradient Lyapunov criterion. In the context of nuclear physics, RBF Cognitive Radial Basis Function network (McRBFN) and its has been effectively used to model the stopping power data Projection based Learning (PBL) referred to as PBL-McRBFN of materials as in [4].