This paper deals with estimating model parameters in graphical models. We reformulate it as an information geometric optimization problem and introduce a natural gradient descent strategy that incorporates additional meta parameters. We show that our approach is a strong alternative to the celebrated EM approach for learning in graphical models. Actually, our natural gradient based strategy leads to learning optimal parameters for the final objective function without artificially trying to fit a distribution that may not correspond to the real one. We support our theoretical findings with the question of trend detection in financial markets and show that the learned model performs better than traditional practitioner methods and is less prone to overfitting.

Recent studies have explored the use of deep generative models of speech spectra based of variational autoencoders (VAEs), combined with unsupervised noise models, to perform speech enhancement. These studies developed iterative algorithms involving either Gibbs sampling or gradient descent at each step, making them computationally expensive. This paper proposes a variational inference method to iteratively estimate the power spectrogram of the clean speech. Our main contribution is the analytical derivation of the variational steps in which the en-coder of the pre-learned VAE can be used to estimate the varia-tional approximation of the true posterior distribution, using the very same assumption made to train VAEs. Experiments show that the proposed method produces results on par with the afore-mentioned iterative methods using sampling, while decreasing the computational cost by a factor 36 to reach a given performance .

Modern applications of Bayesian inference involve models that are sufficiently complex that the corresponding posterior distributions are intractable and must be approximated. The most common approximation is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo, but these can be expensive when the data set is large and/or the model is complex, so more efficient variational approximations have recently received considerable attention. The traditional variational methods, that seek to minimize the Kullback--Leibler divergence between the posterior and a relatively simple parametric family, provide accurate and efficient estimation of the posterior mean, but often does not capture other moments, and have limitations in terms of the models to which they can be applied. Here we propose the construction of variational approximations based on minimizing the Fisher divergence, and develop an efficient computational algorithm that can be applied to a wide range of models without conjugacy or potentially unrealistic mean-field assumptions. We demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed method for the benchmark case of logistic regression.

We argue that pushing is an essential motion primitive in a robot's manipulative repertoire. Consider, for instance, a household robot reaching for a bottle of milk located in the back of the fridge. Instead of picking up every yoghurt, egg carton, or jam jar obstructing the path to create space, the robot can use gentle pushes to create a corridor to its lactic target. Moving larger obstacles out of the way is even more important to mobile robots in environments as extreme as abandoned mines (Ferguson et al., 2004), the moon (King, 2016), or for rescue missions as for the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. In order to save cost, space, or reduce payload, such robots are often not equipped with grippers, meaning that prehensile manipulation is not an option. Even in the presence of grippers, objects may be too large or too heavy to grasp. In addition to the considered scenarios, pushing has numerous beneficial applications that come to mind less easily. For instance, pushing is effective at manipulating objects under uncertainty (Brost, 1988; Dogar and Srinivasa, 2010), and for pre-grasp manipulation, allowing robots to bring objects into configurations where they can be easily grasped (King et al., 2013). Less existential, yet highly interesting and entertaining, dexterous pushing skills are also widely applied and applauded in robot soccer (Emery and Balch, 2001).

Given a graphical model (GM), computing its partition function is the most essential inference task, but it is computationally intractable in general. To address the issue, iterative approximation algorithms exploring certain local structure/consistency of GM have been investigated as popular choices in practice. However, due to their local/iterative nature, they often output poor approximations or even do not converge, e.g., in low-temperature regimes (hard instances of large parameters). To overcome the limitation, we propose a novel approach utilizing the global spectral feature of GM. Our contribution is two-fold: (a) we first propose a fully polynomial-time approximation scheme (FPTAS) for approximating the partition function of GM associating with a low-rank coupling matrix; (b) for general high-rank GMs, we design a spectral mean-field scheme utilizing (a) as a subroutine, where it approximates a high-rank GM into a product of rank-1 GMs for an efficient approximation of the partition function. The proposed algorithm is more robust in its running time and accuracy than prior methods, i.e., neither suffers from the convergence issue nor depends on hard local structures, as demonstrated in our experiments.

We consider the problem of searching in a set of items by using pairwise comparisons. We aim to locate a target item $t$ by asking an oracle questions of the form "Which item from the pair $(i,j)$ is more similar to t?". We assume a blind setting, where no item features are available to guide the search process; only the oracle sees the features in order to generate an answer. Previous approaches for this problem either assume noiseless answers, or they scale poorly in the number of items, both of which preclude practical applications. In this paper, we present a new scalable learning framework called learn2search that performs efficient comparison-based search on a set of items despite the presence of noise in the answers. Items live in a space of latent features, and we posit a probabilistic model for the oracle comparing two items $i$ and $j$ with respect to a target $t$. Our algorithm maintains its own representation of the space of items, which it learns incrementally based on past searches. We evaluate the performance of learn2search on both synthetic and real-world data, and show that it learns to search more and more efficiently, over time matching the performance of a scheme with access to the item features.

The computational effort for the evaluation of numerical simulations based on e.g. the finite-element method is high. Metamodels can be utilized to create a low-cost alternative. However the number of required samples for the creation of a sufficient metamodel should be kept low, which can be achieved by using adaptive sampling techniques. In this Master thesis adaptive sampling techniques are investigated for their use in creating metamodels with the Kriging technique, which interpolates values by a Gaussian process governed by prior covariances. The Kriging framework with extension to multifidelity problems is presented and utilized to compare adaptive sampling techniques found in the literature for benchmark problems as well as applications for contact mechanics. This thesis offers the first comprehensive comparison of a large spectrum of adaptive techniques for the Kriging framework. Furthermore a multitude of adaptive techniques is introduced to multifidelity Kriging as well as well as to a Kriging model with reduced hyperparameter dimension called partial least squares Kriging. In addition, an innovative adaptive scheme for binary classification is presented and tested for identifying chaotic motion of a Duffing's type oscillator.

We study the effectiveness of consensus formation in multi-agent systems where there is both belief updating based on direct evidence and also belief combination between agents. In particular, we consider the scenario in which a population of agents collaborate on the best-of-n problem where the aim is to reach a consensus about which is the best (alternatively, true) state from amongst a set of states, each with a different quality value (or level of evidence). Agents' beliefs are represented within Dempster-Shafer theory by mass functions and we invegate the macro-level properties of four well-known belief combination operators for this multi-agent consensus formation problem: Dempster's rule, Yager's rule, Dubois & Prade's operator and the averaging operator. The convergence properties of the operators are considered and simulation experiments are conducted for different evidence rates and noise levels. Results show that a combination of updating from direct evidence and belief combination between agents results in better consensus to the best state than does evidence updating alone. We also find that in this framework the operators are robust to noise. Broadly, Dubois & Prade's operator results in better convergence to the best state. Finally, we consider how well the Dempster-Shafer approach to the best-of-n problem scales to large numbers of states.

We consider probabilistic PCA and related factor models from a Bayesian perspective. These models are in general not identifiable as the likelihood has a rotational symmetry. This gives rise to complicated posterior distributions with continuous subspaces of equal density and thus hinders efficiency of inference as well as interpretation of obtained parameters. In particular, posterior averages over factor loadings become meaningless and only model predictions are unambiguous. Here, we propose a parameterization based on Householder transformations, which remove the rotational symmetry of the posterior. Furthermore, by relying on results from random matrix theory, we establish the parameter distribution which leaves the model unchanged compared to the original rotationally symmetric formulation. In particular, we avoid the need to compute the Jacobian determinant of the parameter transformation. This allows us to efficiently implement probabilistic PCA in a rotation invariant fashion in any state of the art toolbox. Here, we implemented our model in the probabilistic programming language Stan and illustrate it on several examples.

We propose an alternative and unifying framework for decision-making that, by using quantum mechanics, provides more generalised cognitive and decision models with the ability to represent more information than classical models. This framework can accommodate and predict several cognitive biases reported in Lieder & Griffiths without heavy reliance on heuristics nor on assumptions of the computational resources of the mind. Expected utility theory and classical probabilities tell us what people should do if employing traditionally rational thought, but do not tell us what people do in reality (Machina, 2009). Under this principle, L&G propose an architecture for cognition that can serve as an intermediary layer between Neuroscience and Computation. Whilst instances where large expenditures of cognitive resources occur are theoretically alluded to, the model primarily assumes a preference for fast, heuristic-based processing.