A number of applications (e.g., AI bot tournaments, sports, peer grading, crowdsourcing) use pairwise comparison data and the Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model to evaluate a given collection of items (e.g., bots, teams, students, search results). Past work has shown that under the BTL model, the widely-used maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE) is minimax-optimal in estimating the item parameters, in terms of the mean squared error. However, another important desideratum for designing estimators is fairness. In this work, we consider fairness modeled by the notion of bias in statistics. We show that the MLE incurs a suboptimal rate in terms of bias. We then propose a simple modification to the MLE, which "stretches" the bounding box of the maximum-likelihood optimizer by a small constant factor from the underlying ground truth domain. We show that this simple modification leads to an improved rate in bias, while maintaining minimax-optimality in the mean squared error. In this manner, our proposed class of estimators provably improves fairness represented by bias without loss in accuracy.

Likelihood-free methods refer to procedures that perform likelihood-based statistical inference, but without direct evaluation of the likelihood function. This is attractive when the likelihood function is computationally prohibitive to evaluate due to dataset size or model complexity, or when the likelihood function is only known through a data generation process. Some classes of likelihood-free methods include pseudo-marginal methods (Beaumont 2003; Andrieu and Roberts 2009), indirect inference (Gourieroux et al. 1993) and approximate Bayesian computation (Sisson et al. 2018a). In particular, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods form an approximation to the computationally intractable posterior distribution by firstly sampling parameter vectors from the prior, and conditional on these, generating synthetic datasets under the model. The parameter vectors are then weighted by how well a vector of summary statistics of the synthetic datasets matches the same summary statistics of the observed data. ABC methods have seen extensive application and development over the past 15 years.

Nonlinear state-space models are powerful tools to describe dynamical structures in complex time series. In a streaming setting where data are processed one sample at a time, simultaneously inferring the state and their nonlinear dynamics has posed significant challenges in practice. We develop a novel online learning framework, leveraging variational inference and sequential Monte Carlo, which enables flexible and accurate Bayesian joint filtering. Our method provides a filtering posterior arbitrarily close to the true filtering distribution for a wide class of dynamics models and observation models. Specifically, the proposed framework can efficiently infer a posterior over the dynamics using sparse Gaussian processes. Constant time complexity per sample makes our approach amenable to online learning scenarios and suitable for real-time applications.

Triangular map is a recent construct in probability theory that allows one to transform any source probability density function to any target density function. Based on triangular maps, we propose a general framework for high-dimensional density estimation, by specifying one-dimensional transformations (equivalently conditional densities) and appropriate conditioner networks. This framework (a) reveals the commonalities and differences of existing autoregressive and flow based methods, (b) allows a unified understanding of the limitations and representation power of these recent approaches and, (c) motivates us to uncover a new Sum-of-Squares (SOS) flow that is interpretable, universal, and easy to train. We perform several synthetic experiments on various density geometries to demonstrate the benefits (and short-comings) of such transformations. SOS flows achieve competitive results in simulations and several real-world datasets.

For a broad variety of critical applications, it is essential to know how confident a classification prediction is. In this paper, we discuss the drawbacks of softmax to calculate class probabilities and to handle uncertainty in Bayesian neural networks. We introduce a new kind of prediction layer called radial prediction layer (RPL) to overcome these issues. In contrast to the softmax classification, RPL is based on the open-world assumption. Therefore, the class prediction probabilities are much more meaningful to assess the uncertainty concerning the novelty of the input. We show that neural networks with RPLs can be learned in the same way as neural networks using softmax. On a 2D toy data set (spiral data), we demonstrate the fundamental principles and advantages. On the real-world ImageNet data set, we show that the open-world properties are beneficially fulfilled. Additionally, we show that RPLs are less sensible to adversarial attacks on the MNIST data set. Due to its features, we expect RPL to be beneficial in a broad variety of applications, especially in critical environments, such as medicine or autonomous driving.

Flows based on either coupling or autoregressive transforms both offer exact density evaluation and sampling, but rely on the parameterization of an easily invertible elementwise transformation, whose choice determines the flexibility of these models. Building upon recent work, we propose a fully-differentiable module based on monotonic rational-quadratic splines, which enhances the flexibility of both coupling and autoregressive transforms while retaining analytic invertibility. We demonstrate that neural spline flows improve density estimation, variational inference, and generative modeling of images.

We consider the problem of functional matrix factorization, finding low-dimensional structure in a matrix where every entry is a noisy function evaluated at a set of discrete points. Such problems arise frequently in drug discovery, where biological samples form the rows, candidate drugs form the columns, and entries contain the dose-response curve of a sample treated at different concentrations of a drug. We propose Bayesian Tensor Filtering (BTF), a hierarchical Bayesian model of matrices of functions. BTF captures the smoothness in each individual function while also being locally adaptive to sharp discontinuities. The BTF model is agnostic to the likelihood of the underlying observations, making it flexible enough to handle many different kinds of data. We derive efficient Gibbs samplers for three classes of likelihoods: (i) Gaussian, for which updates are fully conjugate; (ii) Binomial and related likelihoods, for which updates are conditionally conjugate through P{\'o}lya--Gamma augmentation; and (iii) Black-box likelihoods, for which updates are non-conjugate but admit an analytic truncated elliptical slice sampling routine. We compare BTF against a state-of-the-art method for dynamic Poisson matrix factorization, showing BTF better reconstructs held out data in synthetic experiments. Finally, we build a dose-response model around BTF and show on real data from a multi-sample, multi-drug cancer study that BTF outperforms the current standard approach in biology. Code for BTF is available at https://github.com/tansey/functionalmf.

Estimating the effect of a treatment on a given outcome, conditioned on a vector of covariates, is central in many applications. However, learning the impact of a treatment on a continuous temporal response, when the covariates suffer extensively from measurement error and even the timing of the treatments is uncertain, has not been addressed. We introduce a novel data-driven method that can estimate treatment-response trajectories in this challenging scenario. We model personalized treatment-response curves as a combination of parametric response functions, hierarchically sharing information across individuals, and a sparse Gaussian process for the baseline trend. Importantly, our model considers measurement error not only in treatment covariates, but also in treatment times, a problem which arises in practice for example when treatment information is based on self-reporting. In a challenging and timely problem of estimating the impact of diet on continuous blood glucose measurements, our model leads to significant improvements in estimation accuracy and prediction.

Latent Euclidean embedding models a given network by representing each node in a Euclidean space, where the probability of two nodes sharing an edge is a function of the distances between the nodes. This implies that for two nodes to share an edge with high probability, they must be relatively close in all dimensions. This constraint may be overly restrictive for describing modern networks, in which having similarities in at least one area may be sufficient for having a high edge probability. We introduce a new model, which we call Latent Channel Networks, which allows for such features of a network. We present an EM algorithm for fitting the model, for which the computational complexity is linear in the number of edges and number of channels and apply the algorithm to both synthetic and classic network datasets.

Recent advances in variational inference enable the modelling of highly structured joint distributions, but are limited in their capacity to scale to the high-dimensional setting of stochastic neural networks. This limitation motivates a need for scalable parameterizations of the noise generation process, in a manner that adequately captures the dependencies among the various parameters. In this work, we address this need and present the Kronecker Flow, a generalization of the Kronecker product to invertible mappings designed for stochastic neural networks. We apply our method to variational Bayesian neural networks on predictive tasks, PAC-Bayes generalization bound estimation, and approximate Thompson sampling in contextual bandits. In all setups, our methods prove to be competitive with existing methods and better than the baselines.