Confounding bias, missing data, and selection bias are three common obstacles to valid causal inference in the data sciences. Covariate adjustment is the most pervasive technique for recovering casual effects from confounding bias. In this paper, we introduce a covariate adjustment formulation for controlling confounding bias in the presence of missing-not-at-random data and develop a necessary and sufficient condition for recovering causal effects using the adjustment. We also introduce an adjustment formulation for controlling both confounding and selection biases in the presence of missing data and develop a necessary and sufficient condition for valid adjustment. Furthermore, we present an algorithm that lists all valid adjustment sets and an algorithm that finds a valid adjustment set containing the minimum number of variables, which are useful for researchers interested in selecting adjustment sets with desired properties.

The optimization of expensive to evaluate, black-box, mixed-variable functions, i.e. functions that have continuous and discrete inputs, is a difficult and yet pervasive problem in science and engineering. In Bayesian optimization (BO), special cases of this problem that consider fully continuous or fully discrete domains have been widely studied. However, few methods exist for mixed-variable domains. In this paper, we introduce MiVaBo, a novel BO algorithm for the efficient optimization of mixed-variable functions that combines a linear surrogate model based on expressive feature representations with Thompson sampling. We propose two methods to optimize its acquisition function, a challenging problem for mixed-variable domains, and we show that MiVaBo can handle complex constraints over the discrete part of the domain that other methods cannot take into account. Moreover, we provide the first convergence analysis of a mixed-variable BO algorithm. Finally, we show that MiVaBo is significantly more sample efficient than state-of-the-art mixed-variable BO algorithms on hyperparameter tuning tasks.

Importance weighting is a general way to adjust Monte Carlo integration to account for draws from the wrong distribution, but the resulting estimate can be noisy when the importance ratios have a heavy right tail. This routinely occurs when there are aspects of the target distribution that are not well captured by the approximating distribution, in which case more stable estimates can be obtained by modifying extreme importance ratios. We present a new method for stabilizing importance weights using a generalized Pareto distribution fit to the upper tail of the distribution of the simulated importance ratios. The method, which empirically performs better than existing methods for stabilizing importance sampling estimates, includes stabilized effective sample size estimates, Monte Carlo error estimates and convergence diagnostics.

In this talk we learn about what Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are, and find out how in general, Maximum Likelihood Estimations and Bayes' Rule help us develop our error functions in ANNs, namely, cross-entropy error function! We will derive the binary-cross entropy from scratch, step by step. Below you can see the video of this talk, however, the slides and some code is available. I would highly recommend you to follow the talk through these slides. The slides are available here! The link to the post regarding the Demo is available in here!

Understanding the dynamics of brain tumor progression is essential for optimal treatment planning. Cast in a mathematical formulation, it is typically viewed as evaluation of a system of partial differential equations, wherein the physiological processes that govern the growth of the tumor are considered. To personalize the model, i.e. find a relevant set of parameters, with respect to the tumor dynamics of a particular patient, the model is informed from empirical data, e.g., medical images obtained from diagnostic modalities, such as magnetic-resonance imaging. Existing model-observation coupling schemes require a large number of forward integrations of the biophysical model and rely on simplifying assumption on the functional form, linking the output of the model with the image information. In this work, we propose a learning-based technique for the estimation of tumor growth model parameters from medical scans. The technique allows for explicit evaluation of the posterior distribution of the parameters by sequentially training a mixture-density network, relaxing the constraint on the functional form and reducing the number of samples necessary to propagate through the forward model for the estimation. We test the method on synthetic and real scans of rats injected with brain tumors to calibrate the model and to predict tumor progression.

Fuzzy Rule Interpolation (FRI) reasoning methods have been introduced to address sparse fuzzy rule bases and reduce complexity. The first FRI method was the Koczy and Hirota (KH) proposed "Linear Interpolation". Besides, several conditions and criteria have been suggested for unifying the common requirements FRI methods have to satisfy. One of the most conditions is restricted the fuzzy set of the conclusion must preserve a Piece-Wise Linearity (PWL) if all antecedents and consequents of the fuzzy rules are preserving on PWL sets at {\alpha}-cut levels. The KH FRI is one of FRI methods which cannot satisfy this condition. Therefore, the goal of this paper is to investigate equations and notations related to PWL property, which is aimed to highlight the problematic properties of the KH FRI method to prove its efficiency with PWL condition. In addition, this paper is focusing on constructing benchmark examples to be a baseline for testing other FRI methods against situations that are not satisfied with the linearity condition for KH FRI.

Single-particle electron cryomicroscopy is an essential tool for high-resolution 3D reconstruction of proteins and other biological macromolecules. An important challenge in cryo-EM is the reconstruction of non-rigid molecules with parts that move and deform. Traditional reconstruction methods fail in these cases, resulting in smeared reconstructions of the moving parts. This poses a major obstacle for structural biologists, who need high-resolution reconstructions of entire macromolecules, moving parts included. To address this challenge, we present a new method for the reconstruction of macromolecules exhibiting continuous heterogeneity. The proposed method uses projection images from multiple viewing directions to construct a graph Laplacian through which the manifold of three-dimensional conformations is analyzed. The 3D molecular structures are then expanded in a basis of Laplacian eigenvectors, using a novel generalized tomographic reconstruction algorithm to compute the expansion coefficients. These coefficients, which we name spectral volumes, provide a high-resolution visualization of the molecular dynamics. We provide a theoretical analysis and evaluate the method empirically on several simulated data sets.

We propose Radial Bayesian Neural Networks: a variational distribution for mean field variational inference (MFVI) in Bayesian neural networks that is simple to implement, scalable to large models, and robust to hyperparameter selection. We hypothesize that standard MFVI fails in large models because of a property of the high-dimensional Gaussians used as posteriors. As variances grow, samples come almost entirely from a `soap-bubble' far from the mean. We show that the ad-hoc tweaks used previously in the literature to get MFVI to work served to stop such variances growing. Designing a new posterior distribution, we avoid this pathology in a theoretically principled way. Our distribution improves accuracy and uncertainty over standard MFVI, while scaling to large data where most other VI and MCMC methods struggle. We benchmark Radial BNNs in a real-world task of diabetic retinopathy diagnosis from fundus images, a task with ~100x larger input dimensionality and model size compared to previous demonstrations of MFVI.

Knowledge graph embeddings rank among the most successful methods for link prediction in knowledge graphs, i.e., the task of completing an incomplete collection of relational facts. A downside of these models is their strong sensitivity to model hyperparameters, in particular regularizers, which have to be extensively tuned to reach good performance [Kadlec et al., 2017]. We propose an efficient method for large scale hyperparameter tuning by interpreting these models in a probabilistic framework. After a model augmentation that introduces per-entity hyperparameters, we use a variational expectation-maximization approach to tune thousands of such hyperparameters with minimal additional cost. Our approach is agnostic to details of the model and results in a new state of the art in link prediction on standard benchmark data.

Despite their great success in recent years, deep neural networks (DNN) are mainly black boxes where the results obtained by running through the network are difficult to understand and interpret. Compared to e.g. decision trees or bayesian classifiers, DNN suffer from bad interpretability where we understand by interpretability, that a human can easily derive the relations modeled by the network. A reasonable way to provide interpretability for humans are logical rules. In this paper we propose neural logic rule layers (NLRL) which are able to represent arbitrary logic rules in terms of their conjunctive and disjunctive normal forms. Using various NLRL within one layer and correspondingly stacking various layers, we are able to represent arbitrary complex rules by the resulting neural network architecture. The NLRL are end-to-end trainable allowing to learn logic rules directly from available data sets. Experiments show that NLRL-enhanced neural networks can learn to model arbitrary complex logic and perform arithmetic operation over the input values.