Reduced models are simplified versions of a given domain, designed to accelerate the planning process. Interest in reduced models has grown since the surprising success of determinization in the first international probabilistic planning competition, leading to the development of several enhanced determinization techniques. To address the drawbacks of previous determinization methods, we introduce a family of reduced models in which probabilistic outcomes are classified as one of two types: primary and exceptional. In each model that belongs to this family of reductions, primary outcomes can occur an unbounded number of times per trajectory, while exceptions can occur at most a finite number of times, specified by a parameter. Distinct reduced models are characterized by two parameters: the maximum number of primary outcomes per action, and the maximum number of occurrences of exceptions per trajectory. This family of reductions generalizes the well-known most-likely-outcome determinization approach, which includes one primary outcome per action and zero exceptional outcomes per plan. We present a framework to determine the benefits of planning with reduced models, and develop a continual planning approach that handles situations where the number of exceptions exceeds the specified bound during plan execution. Using this framework, we compare the performance of various reduced models and consider the challenge of generating good ones automatically. We show that each one of the dimensions---allowing more than one primary outcome or planning for some limited number of exceptions---could improve performance relative to standard determinization. The results place previous work on determinization in a broader context and lay the foundation for a systematic exploration of the space of model reductions.

We provide a theoretical treatment of over-specified Gaussian mixtures of experts with covariate-free gating networks. We establish the convergence rates of the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for these models. Our proof technique is based on a novel notion of \emph{algebraic independence} of the expert functions. Drawing on optimal transport theory, we establish a connection between the algebraic independence and a certain class of partial differential equations (PDEs). Exploiting this connection allows us to derive convergence rates and minimax lower bounds for parameter estimation.

Artificial Intelligence models are becoming increasingly more powerful and accurate, supporting or even replacing humans' decision making. But with increased power and accuracy also comes higher complexity, making it hard for users to understand how the model works and what the reasons behind its predictions are. Humans must explain and justify their decisions, and so do the AI models supporting them in this process, making semantic interpretability an emerging field of study. In this work, we look at interpretability from a broader point of view, going beyond the machine learning scope and covering different AI fields such as distributional semantics and fuzzy logic, among others. We examine and classify the models according to their nature and also based on how they introduce interpretability features, analyzing how each approach affects the final users and pointing to gaps that still need to be addressed to provide more human-centered interpretability solutions.

Datasets in engineering applications are often limited and contaminated, mainly due to unavoidable measurement noise and signal distortion. Thus, using conventional data-driven approaches to build a reliable discriminative model, and further applying this identified surrogate to uncertainty analysis remains to be very challenging. A deep learning approach is presented to provide predictions based on limited and noisy data. To address noise perturbation, the Bayesian learning method that naturally facilitates an automatic updating mechanism is considered to quantify and propagate model uncertainties into predictive quantities. Specifically, hierarchical Bayesian modeling (HBM) is first adopted to describe model uncertainties, which allows the prior assumption to be less subjective, while also makes the proposed surrogate more robust. Next, the Bayesian inference is seamlessly integrated into the DL framework, which in turn supports probabilistic programming by yielding a probability distribution of the quantities of interest rather than their point estimates. Variational inference (VI) is implemented for the posterior distribution analysis where the intractable marginalization of the likelihood function over parameter space is framed in an optimization format, and stochastic gradient descent method is applied to solve this optimization problem. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation is used to obtain an unbiased estimator in the predictive phase of Bayesian inference, where the proposed Bayesian deep learning (BDL) scheme is able to offer confidence bounds for the output estimation by analyzing propagated uncertainties. The effectiveness of Bayesian shrinkage is demonstrated in improving predictive performance using contaminated data, and various examples are provided to illustrate concepts, methodologies, and algorithms of this proposed BDL modeling technique.

Rigorous empirical evidence in favor of TS demonstrated by Chapelle and Li [2011] sparked new interest in the theoretical Thompson Sampling provides an efficient technique analysis of the algorithm, and the seminal work to introduce prior knowledge in the multiarmed of Agrawal and Goyal [2012, 2013]; Russo and Van Roy bandit problem, along with providing remarkable [2014] demonstrated the optimality of TS when rewards are empirical performance. In this paper, bounded in [0, 1] or are Gaussian. These results were extended we revisit the Thompson Sampling algorithm under in the work of Korda et al. [2013] to more general, rewards drawn from symmetric α-stable distributions, exponential family reward distributions. The empirical studies, which are a class of heavy-tailed probability along with theoretical guarantees, have established TS as distributions utilized in finance and economics, a powerful algorithm for the MAB problem. in problems such as modeling stock prices and However, when designing decision-making algorithms for human behavior. We present an efficient framework complex systems, we see that interactions in such systems often for posterior inference, which leads to two lead to heavy-tailed and power law distributions, such as algorithms for Thompson Sampling in this setting.

Semi-supervised learning (SSL) uses unlabeled data for training and has been shown to greatly improve performances when compared to a supervised approach on the labeled data available. This claim depends both on the amount of labeled data available and on the algorithm used. In this paper, we compute analytically the gap between the best fully-supervised approach on labeled data and the best semi-supervised approach using both labeled and unlabeled data. We quantify the best possible increase in performance obtained thanks to the unlabeled data, i.e. we compute the accuracy increase due to the information contained in the unlabeled data. Our work deals with a simple high-dimensional Gaussian mixture model for the data in a Bayesian setting. Our rigorous analysis builds on recent theoretical breakthroughs in high-dimensional inference and a large body of mathematical tools from statistical physics initially developed for spin glasses.

In recent studies on model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL), incorporating uncertainty in forward dynamics is a state-of-the-art strategy to enhance learning performance, making MBRLs competitive to cutting-edge model free methods, especially in simulated robotics tasks. Probabilistic ensembles with trajectory sampling (PETS) is a leading type of MBRL, which employs Bayesian inference to dynamics modeling and model predictive control (MPC) with stochastic optimization via the cross entropy method (CEM). In this paper, we propose a novel extension to the uncertainty-aware MBRL. Our main contributions are twofold: Firstly, we introduce a variational inference MPC, which reformulates various stochastic methods, including CEM, in a Bayesian fashion. Secondly, we propose a novel instance of the framework, called probabilistic action ensembles with trajectory sampling (PaETS). As a result, our Bayesian MBRL can involve multimodal uncertainties both in dynamics and optimal trajectories. In comparison to PETS, our method consistently improves asymptotic performance on several challenging locomotion tasks.

In many machine learning scenarios, supervision by gold labels is not available and consequently neural models cannot be trained directly by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). In a weak supervision scenario, metric-augmented objectives can be employed to assign feedback to model outputs, which can be used to extract a supervision signal for training. We present several objectives for two separate weakly supervised tasks, machine translation and semantic parsing. We show that objectives should actively discourage negative outputs in addition to promoting a surrogate gold structure. This notion of bipolarity is naturally present in ramp loss objectives, which we adapt to neural models. We show that bipolar ramp loss objectives outperform other non-bipolar ramp loss objectives and minimum risk training (MRT) on both weakly supervised tasks, as well as on a supervised machine translation task. Additionally, we introduce a novel token-level ramp loss objective, which is able to outperform even the best sequence-level ramp loss on both weakly supervised tasks.

The use of machine learning and intelligent systems has become an established practice in the realm of malware detection and cyber threat prevention. In an environment characterized by widespread accessibility and big data, the feasibility of malware classification without the use of artificial intelligence-based techniques has been diminished exponentially. Also characteristic of the contemporary realm of automated, intelligent malware detection is the threat of adversarial machine learning. Adversaries are looking to target the underlying data and/or algorithm responsible for the functionality of malware classification to map its behavior or corrupt its functionality. The ends of such adversaries are bypassing the cyber security measures and increasing malware effectiveness. The focus of this research is the design of an intelligent systems approach using machine learning that can accurately and robustly classify malware under adversarial conditions. Such an outcome ultimately relies on increased flexibility and adaptability to build a model robust enough to identify attacks on the underlying algorithm.

Statistical inference over structured instances of dependent variables (e.g., labeled sequences, trees, or general graphs) is a fundamental problem in many areas. Examples include computer vision (Nowozin et al., 2011; Dollár & Zitnick, 2013; Chen et al., 2018), natural language processing (Huang et al., 2015; Hu et al., 2016), and computational biology (Li et al., 2007). In many practical setups (Shin et al., 2015; Rekatsinas et al., 2017; Sa et al., 2019; Heidari et al., 2019b), inference problems involve noisy observations of discrete labels assigned to the nodes and edges of a given structured instance and the goal is to infer a labeling of the vertices that achieves low disagreement rate between the correct ground truth labels Y and the predicted labels Ŷ, i.e., low Hamming error. We refer to this problem as statistical recovery. Our motivation to study the problem of statistical recovery stems from our recent work on data cleaning (Rekatsinas et al., 2017; Sa et al., 2019; Heidari et al., 2019b). This work introduces HoloClean, a state-of-the-art inference engine for data curation that casts data cleaning as a structured prediction problem (Sa et al., 2019): Given a dataset as input, it associates each of its cells with a random variable, and uses logical integrity constraints over this dataset (e.g., key constraints or functional dependencies) to introduce dependencies over these random variables. The labels that each random variable can take are determined by the domain of the attribute associated with the corresponding cell. Since we focus on data cleaning, the input dataset corresponds to a noisy version of the latent, clean dataset. Our goal is to recover the latter.