I'm following the book Pattern recognition and machine learning by Bishop on Bernoulli mixture model, and trying to code it. But I don't understand how to calculate the conditional probability (page 446 of the first edition) So in the E-step I'm supposed to calculate this. But it is said that we should use the log of the probability, so as to avoid numerical underflow. So how do i apply it here? I can't see any way to do it.

The derivation of physical laws is a dominant topic in scientific research. We propose a new method capable of discovering the physical laws from data to tackle four challenges in the previous methods. The four challenges are: (1) large noise in the data, (2) outliers in the data, (3) integrating the data collected from different experiments, and (4) extrapolating the solutions to the areas that have no available data. To resolve these four challenges, we try to discover the governing differential equations and develop a model-discovering method based on sparse Bayesian inference and subsampling. The subsampling technique is used for improving the accuracy of the Bayesian learning algorithm here, while it is usually employed for estimating statistics or speeding up algorithms elsewhere. The optimal subsampling size is moderate, neither too small nor too big. Another merit of our method is that it can work with limited data by the virtue of Bayesian inference. We demonstrate how to use our method to tackle the four aforementioned challenges step by step through numerical examples: (1) predator-prey model with noise, (2) shallow water equations with outliers, (3) heat diffusion with random initial and boundary conditions, and (4) fish-harvesting problem with bifurcations. Numerical results show that the robustness and accuracy of our new method is significantly better than the other model-discovering methods and traditional regression methods.

Real-world optimization problems typically involve multiple objectives. This is particularly true in the design of engineering systems, where multiple performance outcomes are balanced against budgetary constraints. Among the complexities of optimizing over multiple objectives is the effect of uncertainties in the problem. Design is guided by models known to be imperfect, systems are built using materials with uncertainty regarding their properties, variations occur in the construction of designed systems, and so on. These imperfections, uncertainties and errors cause uncertainty also in the solution to a design problem. In traditional engineering design, one designs a system after choosing a material with appropriate properties for the project from a database of known materials. As a result, the design of the system is constrained by the initial material selection. By coupling material discovery and engineering system design, we can combine these two traditionally separate processes under the umbrella of a unified multiple objective optimization problem. In this paper, we cast the engineering design problem in the framework of computer model calibration.

Bayesian inference is used extensively to infer and to quantify the uncertainty in a field of interest from a measurement of a related field when the two are linked by a physical model. Despite its many applications, Bayesian inference faces challenges when inferring fields that have discrete representations of large dimension, and/or have prior distributions that are difficult to represent mathematically. In this manuscript we consider the use of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) in addressing these challenges. A GAN is a type of deep neural network equipped with the ability to learn the distribution implied by multiple samples of a given field. Once trained on these samples, the generator component of a GAN maps the iid components of a low-dimensional latent vector to an approximation of the distribution of the field of interest. In this work we demonstrate how this approximate distribution may be used as a prior in a Bayesian update, and how it addresses the challenges associated with characterizing complex prior distributions and the large dimension of the inferred field. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach by applying it to the problem of inferring and quantifying uncertainty in the initial temperature field in a heat conduction problem from a noisy measurement of the temperature at later time.

Matrix-variate distributions can intuitively model the dependence structure of matrix-valued observations that arise in applications with multivariate time series, spatio-temporal or repeated measures. This paper develops an Expectation-Maximization algorithm for discriminant analysis and classification with matrix-variate $t$-distributions. The methodology shows promise on simulated datasets or when applied to the forensic matching of fractured surfaces or the classification of functional Magnetic Resonance, satellite or hand gestures images.

Making decisions in complex environments is a key challenge in artificial intelligence (AI). Situations involving multiple decision makers are particularly complex, leading to computation intractability of principled solution methods. A body of work in AI [4, 3, 41, 45, 47, 2] has tried to mitigate this problem by trying to bring down interaction to its core: how does the policy of one agent influence another agent? If we can find more compact representations of such influence, this can help us deal with the complexity, for instance by searching the space of influences rather than that of policies [45]. However, so far these notions of influence have been restricted in their applicability to special cases of interaction. In this paper we formalize influence-based abstraction (IBA), which facilitates the elimination of latent state factors without any loss in value, for a very general class of problems described as factored partially observable stochastic games (fPOSGs) [33]. This generalizes existing descriptions of influence, and thus can serve as the foundation for improvements in scalability and other insights in decision making in complex settings.

We propose a new model for forming beliefs and learning about unknown probabilities (such as the probability of picking a red marble from a bag with an unknown distribution of coloured marbles). The most widespread model for such situations of 'radical uncertainty' is in terms of imprecise probabilities, i.e. representing the agent's knowledge as a set of probability measures. We add to this model a plausibility map, associating to each measure a plausibility number, as a way to go beyond what is known with certainty and represent the agent's beliefs about probability. There are a number of standard examples: Shannon Entropy, Centre of Mass etc. We then consider learning of two types of information: (1) learning by repeated sampling from the unknown distribution (e.g. picking marbles from the bag); and (2) learning higher-order information about the distribution (in the shape of linear inequalities, e.g. we are told there are more red marbles than green marbles). The first changes only the plausibility map (via a 'plausibilistic' version of Bayes' Rule), but leaves the given set of measures unchanged; the second shrinks the set of measures, without changing their plausibility. Beliefs are defined as in Belief Revision Theory, in terms of truth in the most plausible worlds. But our belief change does not comply with standard AGM axioms, since the revision induced by (1) is of a non-AGM type. This is essential, as it allows our agents to learn the true probability: we prove that the beliefs obtained by repeated sampling converge almost surely to the correct belief (in the true probability). We end by sketching the contours of a dynamic doxastic logic for statistical learning.

Multi-parameter cognition in a cognitive radio network (CRN) provides a more thorough understanding of the radio environments, and could potentially lead to far more intelligent and efficient spectrum usage for a secondary user. In this paper, we investigate the multi-parameter cognition problem for a CRN where the primary transmitter (PT) radiates multiple transmit power levels, and propose a learning-based two-stage spectrum sharing strategy. We first propose a data-driven/machine learning based multi-level spectrum sensing scheme, including the spectrum learning (Stage I) and prediction (the first part in Stage II). This fully blind sensing scheme does not require any prior knowledge of the PT power characteristics. Then, based on a novel normalized power level alignment metric, we propose two prediction-transmission structures, namely periodic and non-periodic, for spectrum access (the second part in Stage II), which enable the secondary transmitter (ST) to closely follow the PT power level variation. The periodic structure features a fixed prediction interval, while the non-periodic one dynamically determines the interval with a proposed reinforcement learning algorithm to further improve the alignment metric. Finally, we extend the prediction-transmission structure to an online scenario, where the number of PT power levels might change as a consequence of PT adapting to the environment fluctuation or quality of service variation. The simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed strategy in various scenarios.

We consider a problem of ecological inference, in which individual-level covariates are known, but labeled data is available only at the aggregate level. The intended application is modeling voter preferences in elections. In Rosenman and Viswanathan (2018), we proposed modeling individual voter probabilities via a logistic regression, and posing the problem as a maximum likelihood estimation for the parameter vector beta. The likelihood is a Poisson binomial, the distribution of the sum of independent but not identically distributed Bernoulli variables, though we approximate it with a heteroscedastic Gaussian for computational efficiency. Here, we extend the prior work by proving results about the existence of the MLE and the curvature of this likelihood, which is not log-concave in general. We further demonstrate the utility of our method on a real data example. Using data on voters in Morris County, NJ, we demonstrate that our approach outperforms other ecological inference methods in predicting a related, but known outcome: whether an individual votes.

Modelling statistical relationships beyond the conditional mean is crucial in many settings. Conditional density estimation (CDE) aims to learn the full conditional probability density from data. Though highly expressive, neural network based CDE models can suffer from severe over-fitting when trained with the maximum likelihood objective. Due to the inherent structure of such models, classical regularization approaches in the parameter space are rendered ineffective. To address this issue, we develop a model-agnostic noise regularization method for CDE that adds random perturbations to the data during training. We demonstrate that the proposed approach corresponds to a smoothness regularization and prove its asymptotic consistency. In our experiments, noise regularization significantly and consistently outperforms other regularization methods across seven data sets and three CDE models. The effectiveness of noise regularization makes neural network based CDE the preferable method over previous non- and semi-parametric approaches, even when training data is scarce.