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 Uncertainty


Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning for Open-Domain Dialog

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Open-domain dialog generation is a challenging problem; maximum likelihood training can lead to repetitive outputs, models have difficulty tracking long-term conversational goals, and training on standard movie or online datasets may lead to the generation of inappropriate, biased, or offensive text. Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a powerful framework that could potentially address these issues, for example by allowing a dialog model to optimize for reducing toxicity and repetitiveness. However, previous approaches which apply RL to open-domain dialog generation do so at the word level, making it difficult for the model to learn proper credit assignment for long-term conversational rewards. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to hierarchical reinforcement learning, VHRL, which uses policy gradients to tune the utterance-level embedding of a variational sequence model. This hierarchical approach provides greater flexibility for learning long-term, conversational rewards. We use self-play and RL to optimize for a set of human-centered conversation metrics, and show that our approach provides significant improvements -- in terms of both human evaluation and automatic metrics -- over state-of-the-art dialog models, including Transformers.


Unsupervised Segmentation of Fire and Smoke from Infra-Red Videos

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper proposes a vision-based fire and smoke segmentation system which use spatial, temporal and motion information to extract the desired regions from the video frames. The fusion of information is done using multiple features such as optical flow, divergence and intensity values. These features extracted from the images are used to segment the pixels into different classes in an unsupervised way. A comparative analysis is done by using multiple clustering algorithms for segmentation. Here the Markov Random Field performs more accurately than other segmentation algorithms since it characterizes the spatial interactions of pixels using a finite number of parameters. It builds a probabilistic image model that selects the most likely labeling using the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation. This unsupervised approach is tested on various images and achieves a frame-wise fire detection rate of 95.39%. Hence this method can be used for early detection of fire in real-time and it can be incorporated into an indoor or outdoor surveillance system.


Towards a New Understanding of the Training of Neural Networks with Mislabeled Training Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We investigate the problem of machine learning with mislabeled training data. We try to make the effects of mislabeled training better understood through analysis of the basic model and equations that characterize the problem. This includes results about the ability of the noisy model to make the same decisions as the clean model and the effects of noise on model performance. In addition to providing better insights we also are able to show that the Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimate of the parameters of the noisy model determine those of the clean model. This property is obtained through the use of the ML invariance property and leads to an approach to developing a classifier when training has been mislabeled: namely train the classifier on noisy data and adjust the decision threshold based on the noise levels and/or class priors. We show how our approach to mislabeled training works with multi-layered perceptrons (MLPs).


Sample Efficient Policy Gradient Methods with Recursive Variance Reduction

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Improving the sample efficiency in reinforcement learning has been a long-standing research problem. In this work, we aim to reduce the sample complexity of existing policy gradient methods. We propose a novel policy gradient algorithm called SRVR-PG, which only requires $O(1/\epsilon^{3/2})$ episodes to find an $\epsilon$-approximate stationary point of the nonconcave performance function $J(\boldsymbol{\theta})$ (i.e., $\boldsymbol{\theta}$ such that $\|\nabla J(\boldsymbol{\theta})\|_2^2\leq\epsilon$). This sample complexity improves the best known result $O(1/\epsilon^{5/3})$ for policy gradient algorithms by a factor of $O(1/\epsilon^{1/6})$. In addition, we also propose a variant of SRVR-PG with parameter exploration, which explores the initial policy parameter from a prior probability distribution. We conduct numerical experiments on classic control problems in reinforcement learning to validate the performance of our proposed algorithms.


A literature review on current approaches and applications of fuzzy expert systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The main purposes of this study are to distinguish the trends of research in publication exits for the utilisations of the fuzzy expert and knowledge-based systems that is done based on the classification of studies in the last decade. The present investigation covers 60 articles from related scholastic journals, International conference proceedings and some major literature review papers. Our outcomes reveal an upward trend in the up-to-date publications number, that is evidence of growing notoriety on the various applications of fuzzy expert systems. This raise in the reports is mainly in the medical neuro-fuzzy and fuzzy expert systems. Moreover, another most critical observation is that many modern industrial applications are extended, employing knowledge-based systems by extracting the experts' knowledge.


Knowledge representation and diagnostic inference using Bayesian networks in the medical discourse

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

For the diagnostic inference under uncertainty Bayesian networks are investigated. The method is based on an adequate uniform representation of the necessary knowledge. This includes both generic and experience-based specific knowledge, which is stored in a knowledge base. For knowledge processing, a combination of the problem-solving methods of concept-based and case-based reasoning is used. Concept-based reasoning is used for the diagnosis, therapy and medication recommendation and evaluation of generic knowledge. Exceptions in the form of specific patient cases are processed by case-based reasoning. In addition, the use of Bayesian networks allows to deal with uncertainty, fuzziness and incompleteness. Thus, the valid general concepts can be issued according to their probability. To this end, various inference mechanisms are introduced and subsequently evaluated within the context of a developed prototype. Tests are employed to assess the classification of diagnoses by the network.


Compositional uncertainty in deep Gaussian processes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Gaussian processes (GPs) are nonparametric priors over functions, and fitting a GP to the data implies computing the posterior distribution of the functions consistent with the observed data. Similarly, deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) [Damianou:2013] should allow us to compute the posterior distribution of compositions of multiple functions giving rise to the observations. However, exact Bayesian inference is usually intractable for DGPs, motivating the use of various approximations. We show that the simplifying assumptions for a common type of Variational inference approximation imply that all but one layer of a DGP collapse to a deterministic transformation. We argue that such an inference scheme is suboptimal, not taking advantage of the potential of the model to discover the compositional structure in the data, and propose possible modifications addressing this issue.


Prediction of rare feature combinations in population synthesis: Application of deep generative modelling

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In population synthesis applications, when considering populations with many attributes, a fundamental problem is the estimation of rare combinations of feature attributes. Unsurprisingly, it is notably more difficult to reliably representthe sparser regions of such multivariate distributions and in particular combinations of attributes which are absent from the original sample. In the literature this is commonly known as sampling zeros for which no systematic solution has been proposed so far. In this paper, two machine learning algorithms, from the family of deep generative models,are proposed for the problem of population synthesis and with particular attention to the problem of sampling zeros. Specifically, we introduce the Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network (WGAN) and the Variational Autoencoder(VAE), and adapt these algorithms for a large-scale population synthesis application. The models are implemented on a Danish travel survey with a feature-space of more than 60 variables. The models are validated in a cross-validation scheme and a set of new metrics for the evaluation of the sampling-zero problem is proposed. Results show how these models are able to recover sampling zeros while keeping the estimation of truly impossible combinations, the structural zeros, at a comparatively low level. Particularly, for a low dimensional experiment, the VAE, the marginal sampler and the fully random sampler generate 5%, 21% and 26%, respectively, more structural zeros per sampling zero generated by the WGAN, while for a high dimensional case, these figures escalate to 44%, 2217% and 170440%, respectively. This research directly supports the development of agent-based systems and in particular cases where detailed socio-economic or geographical representations are required.


Inference for multiple object tracking: A Bayesian nonparametric approach

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In recent years, multi object tracking (MOT) problem has drawn attention to it and has been studied in various research areas. However, some of the challenging problems including time dependent cardinality, unordered measurement set, and object labeling remain unclear. In this paper, we propose robust nonparametric methods to model the state prior for MOT problem. These models are shown to be more flexible and robust compared to existing methods. In particular, the overall approach estimates time dependent object cardinality, provides object labeling, and identifies object associated measurements. Moreover, our proposed framework dynamically contends with the birth/death and survival of the objects through dependent nonparametric processes. We present Inference algorithms that demonstrate the utility of the dependent nonparametric models for tracking. We employ Monte Carlo sampling methods to demonstrate the proposed algorithms efficiently learn the trajectory of objects from noisy measurements. The computational results display the performance of the proposed algorithms and comparison not only between one another, but also between proposed algorithms and labeled multi Bernoulli tracker.


Band-Limited Gaussian Processes: The Sinc Kernel

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a novel class of Gaussian processes (GPs) whose spectra have compact support, meaning that their sample trajectories are almost-surely band limited. As a complement to the growing literature on spectral design of covariance kernels, the core of our proposal is to model power spectral densities through a rectangular function, which results in a kernel based on the sinc function with straightforward extensions to non-centred (around zero frequency) and frequency-varying cases. In addition to its use in regression, the relationship between the sinc kernel and the classic theory is illuminated, in particular, the Shannon-Nyquist theorem is interpreted as posterior reconstruction under the proposed kernel. Additionally, we show that the sinc kernel is instrumental in two fundamental signal processing applications: first, in stereo amplitude modulation, where the non-centred sinc kernel arises naturally. Second, for band-pass filtering, where the proposed kernel allows for a Bayesian treatment that is robust to observation noise and missing data. The developed theory is complemented with illustrative graphic examples and validated experimentally using real-world data.