Critical infrastructure systems such as electric power networks, water networks, and transportation systems play a major role in the welfare of any community. In the aftermath of disasters, their recovery is of paramount importance; orderly and efficient recovery involves the assignment of limited resources (a combination of human repair workers and machines) to repair damaged infrastructure components. The decision maker must also deal with uncertainty in the outcome of the resource-allocation actions during recovery. The manual assignment of resources seldom is optimal despite the expertise of the decision maker because of the large number of choices and uncertainties in consequences of sequential decisions. This combinatorial assignment problem under uncertainty is known to be \mbox{NP-hard}. We propose a novel decision technique that addresses the massive number of decision choices for large-scale real-world problems; in addition, our method also features an experiential learning component that adaptively determines the utilization of the computational resources based on the performance of a small number of choices. Our framework is closed-loop, and naturally incorporates all the attractive features of such a decision-making system. In contrast to myopic approaches, which do not account for the future effects of the current choices, our methodology has an anticipatory learning component that effectively incorporates \emph{lookahead} into the solutions. To this end, we leverage the theory of regression analysis, Markov decision processes (MDPs), multi-armed bandits, and stochastic models of community damage from natural disasters to develop a method for near-optimal recovery of communities. Our method contributes to the general problem of MDPs with massive action spaces with application to recovery of communities affected by hazards.

This post assumes you have some basic knowledge of probability and statistics. If you don't, do not be afraid, I have gathered a list of the best resources I could find to introduce you to these subjects, so that you can read this post, understand it, and enjoy it to its fullest. In it, we will talk about one of the most famous and utilised theorems of probability theory: Bayes' Theorem. Then you are in for a treat! Know what it is already?

We present a new method of learning a continuous occupancy field for use in robot navigation. Occupancy grid maps, or variants of, are possibly the most widely used and accepted method of building a map of a robot's environment. Various methods have been developed to learn continuous occupancy maps and have successfully resolved many of the shortcomings of grid mapping, namely, priori discretisation and spatial correlation. However, most methods for producing a continuous occupancy field remain computationally expensive or heuristic in nature. Our method explores a generalisation of the so-called Ising model as a suitable candidate for modelling an occupancy field. We also present a unique kernel for use within our method that models range measurements. The method is quite attractive as it requires only a small number of hyperparameters to be trained, and is computationally efficient. The small number of hyperparameters can be quickly learned by maximising a pseudo likelihood. The technique is demonstrated on both a small simulated indoor environment with known ground truth as well as large indoor and outdoor areas, using two common real data sets.

When samples have internal structure, we often see a mismatch between the objective optimized during training and the model's goal during inference. For example, in sequence-to-sequence modeling we are interested in high-quality translated sentences, but training typically uses maximum likelihood at the word level. Learning to recognize individual faces from group photos, each captioned with the correct but unordered list of people in it, is another example where a mismatch between training and inference objectives occurs. In both cases, the natural training-time loss would involve a combinatorial problem -- dynamic programming-based global sequence alignment and weighted bipartite graph matching, respectively -- but solutions to combinatorial problems are not differentiable with respect to their input parameters, so surrogate, differentiable losses are used instead. Here, we show how to perform gradient descent over combinatorial optimization algorithms that involve continuous parameters, for example edge weights, and can be efficiently expressed as integer, linear, or mixed-integer linear programs. We demonstrate usefulness of gradient descent over combinatorial optimization in sequence-to-sequence modeling using differentiable encoder-decoder architecture with softmax or Gumbel-softmax, and in weakly supervised learning involving a convolutional, residual feed-forward network for image classification.

Identifying features that leak information about sensitive attributes is a key challenge in the design of information obfuscation mechanisms. In this paper, we propose a framework to identify information-leaking features via information density estimation. Here, features whose information densities exceed a pre-defined threshold are deemed information-leaking features. Once these features are identified, we sequentially pass them through a targeted obfuscation mechanism with a provable leakage guarantee in terms of $\mathsf{E}_\gamma$-divergence. The core of this mechanism relies on a data-driven estimate of the trimmed information density for which we propose a novel estimator, named the trimmed information density estimator (TIDE). We then use TIDE to implement our mechanism on three real-world datasets. Our approach can be used as a data-driven pipeline for designing obfuscation mechanisms targeting specific features.

Recent work has shown that the outputs of convolutional neural networks become Gaussian process (GP) distributed when we take the number of channels to infinity. In principle, these infinite networks should perform very well, both because they allow for exact Bayesian inference, and because widening networks is generally thought to improve (or at least not diminish) performance. However, Bayesian infinite networks perform poorly in comparison to finite networks, and our goal here is to explain this discrepancy. We note that the high-level representation induced by an infinite network has very little flexibility; it depends only on network hyperparameters such as depth, and as such cannot learn a good high-level representation of data. In contrast, finite networks correspond to a rich prior over high-level representations, corresponding to kernel hyperparameters. We analyse this flexibility from the perspective of the prior (looking at the structured prior covariance of the top-level kernel), and from the perspective of the posterior, showing that the representation in a learned, finite deep linear network slowly transitions from the kernel induced by the inputs towards the kernel induced by the outputs, both for gradient descent, and for Langevin sampling. Finally, we explore representation learning in deep, convolutional, nonlinear networks, showing that learned representations differ dramatically from the corresponding infinite network. One approach to understanding and improving neural networks is to perform Bayesian inference in an infinitely wide network, which can be done both for fully connected (Lee et al., 2018; Matthews et al., 2018) and convolutional networks (Garriga-Alonso et al., 2019; Novak et al., 2019).

For complex nonlinear supervised learning models, assessing the relevance of input variables or their interactions is not straightforward due to the lack of a direct measure of relevance, such as the regression coefficients in generalized linear models. One can assess the relevance of input variables locally by using the mean prediction or its derivative, but this disregards the predictive uncertainty. In this work, we present a Bayesian method for identifying relevant input variables with main effects and interactions by differentiating the Kullback-Leibler divergence of predictive distributions. The method averages over local measures of relevance and has a conservative property that takes into account the uncertainty in the predictive distribution. Our empirical results on simulated and real data sets with nonlinearities demonstrate accurate and efficient identification of relevant main effects and interactions compared to alternative methods.

A fundamental problem arising in many areas of machine learning is the evaluation of the likelihood of a given observation under different nominal distributions. Frequently, these nominal distributions are themselves estimated from data, which makes them susceptible to estimation errors. We thus propose to replace each nominal distribution with an ambiguity set containing all distributions in its vicinity and to evaluate an \emph{optimistic likelihood}, that is, the maximum of the likelihood over all distributions in the ambiguity set. When the proximity of distributions is quantified by the Fisher-Rao distance or the Kullback-Leibler divergence, the emerging optimistic likelihoods can be computed efficiently using either geodesic or standard convex optimization techniques. We showcase the advantages of working with optimistic likelihoods on a classification problem using synthetic as well as empirical data.

We elaborate on using importance sampling for causal reasoning, in particular for counterfactual inference. We show how this can be implemented natively in probabilistic programming. By considering the structure of the counterfactual query, one can significantly optimise the inference process. We also consider design choices to enable further optimisations. We introduce MultiVerse, a probabilistic programming prototype engine for approximate causal reasoning. We provide experimental results and compare with Pyro, an existing probabilistic programming framework with some of causal reasoning tools.

Bayesian Analysis with Python – Second Edition is a step-by-step guide to conduct Bayesian data analyses using PyMC3 and ArviZ. Description The second edition of Bayesian Analysis with Python is an introduction to the main concepts of applied Bayesian inference and its practical implementation in Python using PyMC3, a state-of-the-art probabilistic programming library, and ArviZ, a new library for exploratory analysis of Bayesian models.