We consider black-box global optimization of time-consuming-to-evaluate functions on behalf of a decision-maker whose preferences must be learned. Each feasible design is associated with a time-consuming-to-evaluate vector of attributes, each vector of attributes is assigned a utility by the decision-maker's utility function, and this utility function may be learned approximately using preferences expressed by the decision-maker over pairs of attribute vectors. Past work has used this estimated utility function as if it were error-free within single-objective optimization. However, errors in utility estimation may yield a poor suggested decision. Furthermore, this approach produces a single suggested "best" design, whereas decision-makers often prefer to choose among a menu of designs. We propose a novel Bayesian optimization algorithm that acknowledges the uncertainty in preference estimation and implicitly chooses designs to evaluate using the time-consuming function that are good not just for a single estimated utility function but a range of likely utility functions. Our algorithm then shows a menu of designs and evaluated attributes to the decision-maker who makes a final selection. We demonstrate the value of our algorithm in a variety of numerical experiments.

A key challenge in crowdsourcing is inferring the ground truth from noisy and unreliable data. To do so, existing approaches rely on collecting redundant information from the crowd, and aggregating it with some probabilistic method. However, oftentimes such methods are computationally inefficient, are restricted to some specific settings, or lack theoretical guarantees. In this paper, we revisit the problem of binary classification from crowdsourced data. Specifically we propose Streaming Bayesian Inference for Crowdsourcing (SBIC), a new algorithm that does not suffer from any of these limitations. First, SBIC has low complexity and can be used in a real-time online setting. Second, SBIC has the same accuracy as the best state-of-the-art algorithms in all settings. Third, SBIC has provable asymptotic guarantees both in the online and offline settings.

We develop a real-time anomaly detection algorithm for directed activity on large, sparse networks. We model the propensity for future activity using a dynamic logistic model with interaction terms for sender- and receiver-specific latent factors in addition to sender- and receiver-specific popularity scores; deviations from this underlying model constitute potential anomalies. Latent nodal attributes are estimated via a variational Bayesian approach and may change over time, representing natural shifts in network activity. Estimation is augmented with a case-control approximation to take advantage of the sparsity of the network and reduces computational complexity from $O(N^2)$ to $O(E)$, where $N$ is the number of nodes and $E$ is the number of observed edges. We run our algorithm on network event records collected from an enterprise network of over 25,000 computers and are able to identify a red team attack with half the detection rate required of the model without latent interaction terms.

Resampling is a way to reuse data to generate new, hypothetical samples (called resamples) that are representative of an underlying population. Two popular tools are the bootstrap and jackknife. Although they have many similarities (e.g. they both can estimate precision for an estimator θ), they do have a few notable differences. Bootstrapping is the most popular resampling method today. It uses sampling with replacement to estimate the sampling distribution for a desired estimator.

Meta-learning for few-shot learning allows a machine to leverage previously acquired knowledge as a prior, thus improving the performance on novel tasks with only small amounts of data. However, most mainstream models suffer from catastrophic forgetting and insufficient robustness issues, thereby failing to fully retain or exploit long-term knowledge while being prone to cause severe error accumulation. In this paper, we propose a novel Continual Meta-Learning approach with Bayesian Graph Neural Networks (CML-BGNN) that mathematically formulates meta-learning as continual learning of a sequence of tasks. With each task forming as a graph, the intra- and inter-task correlations can be well preserved via message-passing and history transition. To remedy topological uncertainty from graph initialization, we utilize Bayes by Backprop strategy that approximates the posterior distribution of task-specific parameters with amortized inference networks, which are seamlessly integrated into the end-to-end edge learning. Extensive experiments conducted on the miniImageNet and tieredImageNet datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method, improving the performance by 42.8% compared with state-of-the-art on the miniImageNet 5-way 1-shot classification task.

The goal of this paper is twofold. Once to highlight some basic problematic properties of the KH Fuzzy Rule Interpolation through examples, secondly to set up a brief Benchmark set of Examples, which is suitable for testing other Fuzzy Rule Interpolation (FRI) methods against these ill conditions. Fuzzy Rule Interpolation methods were originally proposed to handle the situation of missing fuzzy rules (sparse rule-bases) and to reduce the decision complexity. Fuzzy Rule Interpolation is an important technique for implementing inference with sparse fuzzy rule-bases. Even if a given observation has no overlap with the antecedent of any rule from the rule-base, FRI may still conclude a conclusion. The first FRI method was the Koczy and Hirota proposed "Linear Interpolation", which was later renamed to "KH Fuzzy Interpolation" by the followers. There are several conditions and criteria have been suggested for unifying the common requirements an FRI methods have to satisfy. One of the most common one is the demand for a convex and normal fuzzy (CNF) conclusion, if all the rule antecedents and consequents are CNF sets. The KH FRI is the one, which cannot fulfill this condition. This paper is focusing on the conditions, where the KH FRI fails the demand for the CNF conclusion. By setting up some CNF rule examples, the paper also defines a Benchmark, in which other FRI methods can be tested if they can produce CNF conclusion where the KH FRI fails.

The darknet markets are notorious black markets in cyberspace, which involve selling or brokering drugs, weapons, stolen credit cards, and other illicit goods. To combat illicit transactions in the cyberspace, it is important to analyze the behaviors of participants in darknet markets. Currently, many studies focus on studying the behavior of vendors. However, there is no much work on analyzing buyers. The key challenge is that the buyers are anonymized in darknet markets. For most of the darknet markets, We only observe the first and last digits of a buyer's ID, such as ``a**b''. To tackle this challenge, we propose a hidden buyer identification model, called UNMIX, which can group the transactions from one hidden buyer into one cluster given a transaction sequence from an anonymized ID. UNMIX is able to model the temporal dynamics information as well as the product, comment, and vendor information associated with each transaction. As a result, the transactions with similar patterns in terms of time and content group together as the subsequence from one hidden buyer. Experiments on the data collected from three real-world darknet markets demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach measured by various clustering metrics. Case studies on real transaction sequences explicitly show that our approach can group transactions with similar patterns into the same clusters.

In this article, we propose a novel probabilistic framework to improve the accuracy of a weighted majority voting algorithm. In order to assign higher weights to the classifiers which can correctly classify hard-to-classify instances, we introduce the Item Response Theory (IRT) framework to evaluate the samples' difficulty and classifiers' ability simultaneously. Three models are created with different assumptions suitable for different cases. When making an inference, we keep a balance between the accuracy and complexity. In our experiment, all the base models are constructed by single trees via bootstrap. To explain the models, we illustrate how the IRT ensemble model constructs the classifying boundary. We also compare their performance with other widely used methods and show that our model performs well on 19 datasets.

Markov blanket feature selection, while theoretically optimal, generally is challenging to implement. This is due to the shortcomings of existing approaches to conditional independence (CI) testing, which tend to struggle either with the curse of dimensionality or computational complexity. We propose a novel two-step approach which facilitates Markov blanket feature selection in high dimensions. First, neural networks are used to map features to low-dimensional representations. In the second step, CI testing is performed by applying the k-NN conditional mutual information estimator to the learned feature maps. The mappings are designed to ensure that mapped samples both preserve information and share similar information about the target variable if and only if they are close in Euclidean distance. We show that these properties boost the performance of the k-NN estimator in the second step. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated on synthetic, as well as real data pertaining to datacenter hard disk drive failures.

We present the first provably convergent off-policy actor-critic algorithm (COF-PAC) with function approximation in a two-timescale form. Key to COF-PAC is the introduction of a new critic, the emphasis critic, which is trained via Gradient Emphasis Learning (GEM), a novel combination of the key ideas of Gradient Temporal Difference Learning and Emphatic Temporal Difference Learning. With the help of the emphasis critic and the canonical value function critic, we show convergence for COF-PAC, where the critics are linear and the actor can be nonlinear.