Probabilistic topic models (and their extensions) have become popular as models of latent structures in collections of text documents or images. These models are usually treated as generative models and trained using maximum likelihood estimation, an approach which may be suboptimal in the context of an overall classification problem. In this paper, we describe DiscLDA, a discriminative learning framework for such models as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) in the setting of dimensionality reduction with supervised side information. In DiscLDA, a class-dependent linear transformation is introduced on the topic mixture proportions. This parameter is estimated by maximizing the conditional likelihood using Monte Carlo EM.

Arithmetic circuits (ACs) exploit context-specific independence and determinism to allow exact inference even in networks with high treewidth. In this paper, we introduce the first ever approximate inference methods using ACs, for domains where exact inference remains intractable. We propose and evaluate a variety of techniques based on exact compilation, forward sampling, AC structure learning, Markov network parameter learning, variational inference, and Gibbs sampling. In experiments on eight challenging real-world domains, we find that the methods based on sampling and learning work best: one such method (AC2-F) is faster and usually more accurate than loopy belief propagation, mean field, and Gibbs sampling; another (AC2-G) has a running time similar to Gibbs sampling but is consistently more accurate than all baselines. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

We present a new family of linear time algorithms based on sufficient statistics for string comparison with mismatches under the string kernels framework. Our algorithms improve theoretical complexity bounds of existing approaches while scaling well with respect to the sequence alphabet size, the number of allowed mismatches and the size of the dataset. In particular, on large alphabets with loose mismatch constraints our algorithms are several orders of magnitude faster than the existing algorithms for string comparison under the mismatch similarity measure. We evaluate our algorithms on synthetic data and real applications in music genre classification, protein remote homology detection and protein fold prediction. The scalability of the algorithms allows us to consider complex sequence transformations, modeled using longer string features and larger numbers of mismatches, leading to a state-of-the-art performance with significantly reduced running times.

Situations in which people with opposing prior beliefs observe the same evidence and then strengthen those existing beliefs are frequently offered as evidence of human irrationality. This phenomenon, termed belief polarization, is typically assumed to be non-normative. We demonstrate, however, that a variety of cases of belief polarization are consistent with a Bayesian approach to belief revision. Simulation results indicate that belief polarization is not only possible but relatively common within the class of Bayesian models that we consider. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

We present a novel probabilistic model for distributions over sets of structures -- for example, sets of sequences, trees, or graphs. The critical characteristic of our model is a preference for diversity: sets containing dissimilar structures are more likely. Our model is a marriage of structured probabilistic models, like Markov random fields and context free grammars, with determinantal point processes, which arise in quantum physics as models of particles with repulsive interactions. We extend the determinantal point process model to handle an exponentially-sized set of particles (structures) via a natural factorization of the model into parts. We show how this factorization leads to tractable algorithms for exact inference, including computing marginals, computing conditional probabilities, and sampling.

Computing a {\em maximum a posteriori} (MAP) assignment in graphical models is a crucial inference problem for many practical applications. Several provably convergent approaches have been successfully developed using linear programming (LP) relaxation of the MAP problem. We present an alternative approach, which transforms the MAP problem into that of inference in a finite mixture of simple Bayes nets. We then derive the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm for this mixture that also monotonically increases a lower bound on the MAP assignment until convergence. The update equations for the EM algorithm are remarkably simple, both conceptually and computationally, and can be implemented using a graph-based message passing paradigm similar to max-product computation.

We consider the problem of binary classification where the classifier may abstain instead of classifying each observation. The Bayes decision rule for this setup, known as Chow's rule, is defined by two thresholds on posterior probabilities. From simple desiderata, namely the consistency and the sparsity of the classifier, we derive the double hinge loss function that focuses on estimating conditional probabilities only in the vicinity of the threshold points of the optimal decision rule. We show that, for suitable kernel machines, our approach is universally consistent. We cast the problem of minimizing the double hinge loss as a quadratic program akin to the standard SVM optimization problem and propose an active set method to solve it efficiently.

We propose an efficient sequential Monte Carlo inference scheme for the recently proposed coalescent clustering model (Teh et al, 2008). Our algorithm has a quadratic runtime while those in (Teh et al, 2008) is cubic. In experiments, we were surprised to find that in addition to being more efficient, it is also a better sequential Monte Carlo sampler than the best in (Teh et al, 2008), when measured in terms of variance of estimated likelihood and effective sample size. Papers published at the Neural Information Processing Systems Conference.

Many nonlinear dynamical phenomena can be effectively modeled by a system that switches among a set of conditionally linear dynamical modes. We consider two such models: the switching linear dynamical system (SLDS) and the switching vector autoregressive (VAR) process. In this paper, we present a nonparametric approach to the learning of an unknown number of persistent, smooth dynamical modes by utilizing a hierarchical Dirichlet process prior. We develop a sampling algorithm that combines a truncated approximation to the Dirichlet process with an efficient joint sampling of the mode and state sequences. The utility and flexibility of our model are demonstrated on synthetic data, sequences of dancing honey bees, and the IBOVESPA stock index.

A non-parametric Bayesian model is proposed for processing multiple images. The analysis employs image features and, when present, the words associated with accompanying annotations. The model clusters the images into classes, and each image is segmented into a set of objects, also allowing the opportunity to assign a word to each object (localized labeling). Each object is assumed to be represented as a heterogeneous mix of components, with this realized via mixture models linking image features to object types. The number of image classes, number of object types, and the characteristics of the object-feature mixture models are inferred non-parametrically.