Human feedback is widely used to train agents in many domains. However, previous works rarely consider the uncertainty when humans provide feedback, especially in cases that the optimal actions are not obvious to the trainers. For example, the reward of a sub-optimal action can be stochastic and sometimes exceeds that of the optimal action, which is common in games or real-world. Trainers are likely to provide positive feedback to sub-optimal actions, negative feedback to the optimal actions and even do not provide feedback in some confusing situations. Existing works, which utilize the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm and treat the feedback model as hidden parameters, do not consider uncertainties in the learning environment and human feedback. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel feedback model that considers the uncertainty of human feedback. However, this incurs intractable calculus in the EM algorithm. To this end, we propose a novel approximate EM algorithm, in which we approximate the expectation step with the Gradient Descent method. Experimental results in both synthetic scenarios and two real-world scenarios with human participants demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed approach.

Active inference offers a first principle account of sentient behaviour, from which special and important cases can be derived, e.g., reinforcement learning, active learning, Bayes optimal inference, Bayes optimal design, etc. Active inference resolves the exploitation-exploration dilemma in relation to prior preferences, by placing information gain on the same footing as reward or value. In brief, active inference replaces value functions with functionals of (Bayesian) beliefs, in the form of an expected (variational) free energy. In this paper, we consider a sophisticated kind of active inference, using a recursive form of expected free energy. Sophistication describes the degree to which an agent has beliefs about beliefs. We consider agents with beliefs about the counterfactual consequences of action for states of affairs and beliefs about those latent states. In other words, we move from simply considering beliefs about "what would happen if I did that" to "what would I believe about what would happen if I did that". The recursive form of the free energy functional effectively implements a deep tree search over actions and outcomes in the future. Crucially, this search is over sequences of belief states, as opposed to states per se. We illustrate the competence of this scheme, using numerical simulations of deep decision problems.

Much of human learning and inference can be framed within the computational problem of relational generalization. In this project, we propose a Bayesian model that generalizes relational knowledge to novel environments by analogically weighting predictions from previously encountered relational structures. First, we show that this learner outperforms a naive, theory-based learner on relational data derived from random- and Wikipedia-based systems when experience with the environment is small. Next, we show how our formalization of analogical similarity translates to the selection and weighting of analogies. Finally, we combine the analogy- and theory-based learners in a single nonparametric Bayesian model, and show that optimal relational generalization transitions from relying on analogies to building a theory of the novel system with increasing experience in it. Beyond predicting unobserved interactions better than either baseline, this formalization gives a computational-level perspective on the formation and abstraction of analogies themselves.

Deep neural networks are often ignorant about what they do not know and overconfident when they make uninformed predictions. Some recent approaches quantify classification uncertainty directly by training the model to output high uncertainty for the data samples close to class boundaries or from the outside of the training distribution. These approaches use an auxiliary data set during training to represent out-of-distribution samples. However, selection or creation of such an auxiliary data set is non-trivial, especially for high dimensional data such as images. In this work we develop a novel neural network model that is able to express both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty to distinguish decision boundary and out-of-distribution regions of the feature space. To this end, variational autoencoders and generative adversarial networks are incorporated to automatically generate out-of-distribution exemplars for training. Through extensive analysis, we demonstrate that the proposed approach provides better estimates of uncertainty for in- and out-of-distribution samples, and adversarial examples on well-known data sets against state-of-the-art approaches including recent Bayesian approaches for neural networks and anomaly detection methods.

We analyze a sequential decision making model in which decision makers (or, players) take their decisions based on their own private information as well as the actions of previous decision makers. Such decision making processes often lead to what is known as the \emph{information cascade} or \emph{herding} phenomenon. Specifically, a cascade develops when it seems rational for some players to abandon their own private information and imitate the actions of earlier players. The risk, however, is that if the initial decisions were wrong, then the whole cascade will be wrong. Nonetheless, information cascade are known to be fragile: there exists a sequence of \emph{revealing} probabilities $\{p_{\ell}\}_{\ell\geq1}$, such that if with probability $p_{\ell}$ player $\ell$ ignores the decisions of previous players, and rely on his private information only, then wrong cascades can be avoided. Previous related papers which study the fragility of information cascades always assume that the revealing probabilities are known to all players perfectly, which might be unrealistic in practice. Accordingly, in this paper we study a mismatch model where players believe that the revealing probabilities are $\{q_\ell\}_{\ell\in\mathbb{N}}$ when they truly are $\{p_\ell\}_{\ell\in\mathbb{N}}$, and study the effect of this mismatch on information cascades. We consider both adversarial and probabilistic sequential decision making models, and derive closed-form expressions for the optimal learning rates at which the error probability associated with a certain decision maker goes to zero. We prove several novel phase transitions in the behaviour of the asymptotic learning rate.

We propose a novel GAN framework for non-parametric density estimation with high-dimensional data. This framework is based on a novel density estimator, called the hyperbolic cross density estimator, which enjoys nice convergence properties in the mixed Sobolev spaces. As modifications of the usual Sobolev spaces, the mixed Sobolev spaces are more suitable for describing high-dimensional density functions. We prove that, unlike other existing approaches, the proposed GAN framework does not suffer the curse of dimensionality and can achieve the optimal convergence rate of $O_p(n^{-1/2})$, with $n$ data points in an arbitrary fixed dimension. We also study the universality of GANs in terms of the existence of ReLU networks which can approximate the density functions in the mixed Sobolev spaces up to any accuracy level.

Calcium imaging is a critical tool for measuring the activity of large neural populations. Much effort has been devoted to developing "pre-processing" tools for calcium video data, addressing the important issues of e.g., motion correction, denoising, compression, demixing, and deconvolution. However, statistical modeling of deconvolved calcium signals (i.e., the estimated activity extracted by a pre-processing pipeline) is just as critical for interpreting calcium measurements, and for incorporating these observations into downstream probabilistic encoding and decoding models. Surprisingly, these issues have to date received significantly less attention. In this work we examine the statistical properties of the deconvolved activity estimates, and compare probabilistic models for these random signals. In particular, we propose a zero-inflated gamma (ZIG) model, which characterizes the calcium responses as a mixture of a gamma distribution and a point mass that serves to model zero responses. We apply the resulting models to neural encoding and decoding problems. We find that the ZIG model outperforms simpler models (e.g., Poisson or Bernoulli models) in the context of both simulated and real neural data, and can therefore play a useful role in bridging calcium imaging analysis methods with tools for analyzing activity in large neural populations.

Prognostics is concerned with predicting the future health of the equipment and any potential failures. With the advances in the Internet of Things (IoT), data-driven approaches for prognostics that leverage the power of machine learning models are gaining popularity. One of the most important categories of data-driven approaches relies on a predefined or learned health indicator to characterize the equipment condition up to the present time and make inference on how it is likely to evolve in the future. In these approaches, health indicator forecasting that constructs the health indicator curve over the lifespan using partially observed measurements (i.e., health indicator values within an initial period) plays a key role. Existing health indicator forecasting algorithms, such as the functional Empirical Bayesian approach, the regression-based formulation, a naive scenario matching based on the nearest neighbor, have certain limitations. In this paper, we propose a new `generative + scenario matching' algorithm for health indicator forecasting. The key idea behind the proposed approach is to first non-parametrically fit the underlying health indicator curve with a continuous Gaussian Process using a sample of run-to-failure health indicator curves. The proposed approach then generates a rich set of random curves from the learned distribution, attempting to obtain all possible variations of the target health condition evolution process over the system's lifespan. The health indicator extrapolation for a piece of functioning equipment is inferred as the generated curve that has the highest matching level within the observed period. Our experimental results show the superiority of our algorithm over the other state-of-the-art methods.

Gaussian processes are powerful models for probabilistic machine learning, but are limited in application by their $O(N^3)$ inference complexity. We propose a method for deriving parametric families of kernel functions with compact spatial support, which yield naturally sparse kernel matrices and enable fast Gaussian process inference via sparse linear algebra. These families generalize known compactly-supported kernel functions, such as the Wendland polynomials. The parameters of this family of kernels can be learned from data using maximum likelihood estimation. Alternatively, we can quickly compute compact approximations of a target kernel using convex optimization. We demonstrate that these approximations incur minimal error over the exact models when modeling data drawn directly from a target GP, and can out-perform the traditional GP kernels on real-world signal reconstruction tasks, while exhibiting sub-quadratic inference complexity.

The design of methods for inference from time sequences has traditionally relied on statistical models that describe the relation between a latent desired sequence and the observed one. A broad family of model-based algorithms have been derived to carry out inference at controllable complexity using recursive computations over the factor graph representing the underlying distribution. An alternative model-agnostic approach utilizes machine learning (ML) methods. Here we propose a framework that combines model-based inference algorithms and data-driven ML tools for stationary time sequences. In the proposed approach, neural networks are developed to separately learn specific components of a factor graph describing the distribution of the time sequence, rather than the complete inference task. By exploiting stationary properties of this distribution, the resulting approach can be applied to sequences of varying temporal duration. Additionally, this approach facilitates the use of compact neural networks which can be trained with small training sets, or alternatively, can be used to improve upon existing deep inference systems. We present an inference algorithm based on learned stationary factor graphs, referred to as StaSPNet, which learns to implement the sum product scheme from labeled data, and can be applied to sequences of different lengths. Our experimental results demonstrate the ability of the proposed StaSPNet to learn to carry out accurate inference from small training sets for sleep stage detection using the Sleep-EDF dataset, as well as for symbol detection in digital communications with unknown channels.