Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) can be viewed as an implicit estimator of a data distribution, and this perspective motivates using the adversarial concept in the true input parameter estimation of black-box generators. While previous works on likelihood-free inference introduces an implicit proposal distribution on the generator input, this paper analyzes theoretic limitations of the proposal distribution approach. On top of that, we introduce a new algorithm, Adversarial Likelihood-Free Inference (ALFI), to mitigate the analyzed limitations, so ALFI is able to find the posterior distribution on the input parameter for black-box generative models. We experimented ALFI with diverse simulation models as well as pre-trained statistical models, and we identified that ALFI achieves the best parameter estimation accuracy with a limited simulation budget.

Evaluating treatment effect heterogeneity widely informs treatment decision making. At the moment, much emphasis is placed on the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect via flexible machine learning algorithms. While these methods enjoy some theoretical appeal in terms of consistency and convergence rates, they generally perform poorly in terms of uncertainty quantification. This is troubling since assessing risk is crucial for reliable decision-making in sensitive and uncertain environments. In this work, we propose a conformal inference-based approach that can produce reliable interval estimates for counterfactuals and individual treatment effects under the potential outcome framework. For completely randomized or stratified randomized experiments with perfect compliance, the intervals have guaranteed average coverage in finite samples regardless of the unknown data generating mechanism. For randomized experiments with ignorable compliance and general observational studies obeying the strong ignorability assumption, the intervals satisfy a doubly robust property which states the following: the average coverage is approximately controlled if either the propensity score or the conditional quantiles of potential outcomes can be estimated accurately. Numerical studies on both synthetic and real datasets empirically demonstrate that existing methods suffer from a significant coverage deficit even in simple models. In contrast, our methods achieve the desired coverage with reasonably short intervals.

Learning from demonstrations (LfD) improves the exploration efficiency of a learning agent by incorporating demonstrations from experts. However, demonstration data can often come from multiple experts with conflicting goals, making it difficult to incorporate safely and effectively in online settings. We address this problem in the static and dynamic optimization settings by modelling the uncertainty in source and target task functions using normal-inverse-gamma priors, whose corresponding posteriors are, respectively, learned from demonstrations and target data using Bayesian neural networks with shared features. We use this learned belief to derive a quadratic programming problem whose solution yields a probability distribution over the expert models. Finally, we propose Bayesian Experience Reuse (BERS) to sample demonstrations in accordance with this distribution and reuse them directly in new tasks. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach for static optimization of smooth functions, and transfer learning in a high-dimensional supply chain problem with cost uncertainty.

We consider shared workspace scenarios with humans and robots acting to achieve independent goals, termed as parallel play. We model these as general-sum games and construct a framework that utilizes the Nash equilibrium solution concept to consider the interactive effect of both agents while planning. We find multiple Pareto-optimal equilibria in these tasks. We hypothesize that people act by choosing an equilibrium based on social norms and their personalities. To enable coordination, we infer the equilibrium online using a probabilistic model that includes these two factors and use it to select the robot's action. We apply our approach to a close-proximity pick-and-place task involving a robot and a simulated human with three potential behaviors - defensive, selfish, and norm-following. We showed that using a Bayesian approach to infer the equilibrium enables the robot to complete the task with less than half the number of collisions while also reducing the task execution time as compared to the best baseline. We also performed a study with human participants interacting either with other humans or with different robot agents and observed that our proposed approach performs similar to human-human parallel play interactions. The code is available at https://github.com/shray/bayes-nash

The use of machine learning (ML) in high-stakes societal decisions has encouraged the consideration of fairness throughout the ML lifecycle. Although data integration is one of the primary steps to generate high quality training data, most of the fairness literature ignores this stage. In this work, we consider fairness in the integration component of data management, aiming to identify features that improve prediction without adding any bias to the dataset. We work under the causal interventional fairness paradigm. Without requiring the underlying structural causal model a priori, we propose an approach to identify a sub-collection of features that ensure the fairness of the dataset by performing conditional independence tests between different subsets of features. We use group testing to improve the complexity of the approach. We theoretically prove the correctness of the proposed algorithm to identify features that ensure interventional fairness and show that sub-linear conditional independence tests are sufficient to identify these variables. A detailed empirical evaluation is performed on real-world datasets to demonstrate the efficacy and efficiency of our technique.

A fundamental difficulty of causal learning is that causal models can generally not be fully identified based on observational data only. Interventional data, that is, data originating from different experimental environments, improves identifiability. However, the improvement depends critically on the target and nature of the interventions carried out in each experiment. Since in real applications experiments tend to be costly, there is a need to perform the right interventions such that as few as possible are required. In this work we propose a new active learning (i.e. experiment selection) framework (A-ICP) based on Invariant Causal Prediction (ICP) (Peters et al., 2016). For general structural causal models, we characterize the effect of interventions on so-called stable sets, a notion introduced by (Pfister et al., 2019). We leverage these results to propose several intervention selection policies for A-ICP which quickly reveal the direct causes of a response variable in the causal graph while maintaining the error control inherent in ICP. Empirically, we analyze the performance of the proposed policies in both population and finite-regime experiments.

When modelling real-valued sequences, a typical approach in current RNN architectures is to use a Gaussian mixture model to describe the conditional output distribution. In this paper, we argue that mixture-based distributions could exhibit structural limitations when faced with highly complex data distributions such as for spatial densities. To address this issue, we introduce recurrent flow networks which combine deterministic and stochastic recurrent hidden states with conditional normalizing flows to form a probabilistic neural generative model capable of describing the kind of variability observed in highly structured spatio-temporal data. Inspired by the model's factorization, we further devise a structured variational inference network to approximate the intractable posterior distribution by exploiting a spatial representation of the data. We empirically evaluate our model against other generative models for sequential data on three real-world datasets for the task of spatio-temporal transportation demand modelling. Results show how the added flexibility allows our model to generate distributions matching potentially complex urban topologies.

Continual Learning (CL) algorithms incrementally learn a predictor or representation across multiple sequentially observed tasks. Designing CL algorithms that perform reliably and avoid so-called catastrophic forgetting has proven a persistent challenge. The current paper develops a theoretical approach that explains why. In particular, we derive the computational properties which CL algorithms would have to possess in order to avoid catastrophic forgetting. Our main finding is that such optimal CL algorithms generally solve an NP-hard problem and will require perfect memory to do so. The findings are of theoretical interest, but also explain the excellent performance of CL algorithms using experience replay, episodic memory and core sets relative to regularization-based approaches.

In this paper, we focus on the problem of stable prediction across unknown test data, where the test distribution is agnostic and might be totally different from the training one. In such a case, previous machine learning methods might exploit subtly spurious correlations in training data induced by non-causal variables for prediction. Those spurious correlations are changeable across data, leading to instability of prediction across data. By assuming the relationships between causal variables and response variable are invariant across data, to address this problem, we propose a conditional independence test based algorithm to separate those causal variables with a seed variable as priori, and adopt them for stable prediction. By assuming the independence between causal and non-causal variables, we show, both theoretically and with empirical experiments, that our algorithm can precisely separate causal and non-causal variables for stable prediction across test data. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art methods for stable prediction.

Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is a statistical technique used to extract common information from multiple data sources or views. It has been used in various representation learning problems, such as dimensionality reduction, word embedding, and clustering. Recent work has given CCA probabilistic footing in a deep learning context and uses a variational lower bound for the data log likelihood to estimate model parameters. Alternatively, adversarial techniques have arisen in recent years as a powerful alternative to variational Bayesian methods in autoencoders. In this work, we explore straightforward adversarial alternatives to recent work in Deep Variational CCA (VCCA and VCCA-Private) we call ACCA and ACCA-Private and show how these approaches offer a stronger and more flexible way to match the approximate posteriors coming from encoders to much larger classes of priors than the VCCA and VCCA-Private models. This allows new priors for what constitutes a good representation, such as disentangling underlying factors of variation, to be more directly pursued. We offer further analysis on the multi-level disentangling properties of VCCA-Private and ACCA-Private through the use of a newly designed dataset we call Tangled MNIST. We also design a validation criteria for these models that is theoretically grounded, task-agnostic, and works well in practice. Lastly, we fill a minor research gap by deriving an additional variational lower bound for VCCA that allows the representation to use view-specific information from both input views.