People routinely infer the goals of others by observing their actions over time. Remarkably, we can do so even when those actions lead to failure, enabling us to assist others when we detect that they might not achieve their goals. How might we endow machines with similar capabilities? Here we present an architecture capable of inferring an agent's goals online from both optimal and non-optimal sequences of actions. Our architecture models agents as boundedly-rational planners that interleave search with execution by replanning, thereby accounting for sub-optimal behavior. These models are specified as probabilistic programs, allowing us to represent and perform efficient Bayesian inference over an agent's goals and internal planning processes. To perform such inference, we develop Sequential Inverse Plan Search (SIPS), a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm that exploits the online replanning assumption of these models, limiting computation by incrementally extending inferred plans as new actions are observed. We present experiments showing that this modeling and inference architecture outperforms Bayesian inverse reinforcement learning baselines, accurately inferring goals from both optimal and non-optimal trajectories involving failure and back-tracking, while generalizing across domains with compositional structure and sparse rewards.

A problem of learning decision policy from past experience is considered. Using the Fully Probabilistic Design (FPD) formalism, we propose a new general approach for finding a stochastic policy from the past data.

Group testing is a method of identifying infected patients by performing tests on a pool of specimens collected from patients. For the case in which the test returns a false result with finite probability, we propose Bayesian inference and a corresponding belief propagation (BP) algorithm to identify the infected patients from the results of tests performed on the pool. We show that the true-positive rate is improved by taking into account the credible interval of a point estimate of each patient. Further, the prevalence and the error probability in the test are estimated by combining an expectation-maximization method with the BP algorithm. As another approach, we introduce a hierarchical Bayes model to identify the infected patients and estimate the prevalence. By comparing these methods, we formulate a guide for practical usage.

Learning from label proportions (LLP) is a weakly supervised setting for classification in which unlabeled training instances are grouped into bags, and each bag is annotated with the proportion of each class occurring in that bag. Prior work on LLP has yet to establish a consistent learning procedure, nor does there exist a theoretically justified, general purpose training criterion. In this work we address these two issues by posing LLP in terms of mutual contamination models (MCMs), which have recently been applied successfully to study various other weak supervision settings. In the process, we establish several novel technical results for MCMs, including unbiased losses and generalization error bounds under non-iid sampling plans. We also point out the limitations of a common experimental setting for LLP, and propose a new one based on our MCM framework.

Control variates are a well-established tool to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimators. However, for large-scale problems including high-dimensional and large-sample settings, their advantages can be outweighed by a substantial computational cost. This paper considers control variates based on Stein operators, presenting a framework that encompasses and generalizes existing approaches that use polynomials, kernels and neural networks. A learning strategy based on minimising a variational objective through stochastic optimization is proposed, leading to scalable and effective control variates. Our results are both empirical, based on a range of test functions and problems in Bayesian inference, and theoretical, based on an analysis of the variance reduction that can be achieved.

We address uncertainty quantification for Gaussian processes (GPs) under misspecified priors, with an eye towards Bayesian Optimization (BO). GPs are widely used in BO because they easily enable exploration based on posterior uncertainty bands. However, this convenience comes at the cost of robustness: a typical function encountered in practice is unlikely to have been drawn from the data scientist's prior, in which case uncertainty estimates can be misleading, and the resulting exploration can be suboptimal. This brittle behavior is convincingly demonstrated in simple simulations. We present a frequentist approach to GP/BO uncertainty quantification. We utilize the GP framework as a working model, but do not assume correctness of the prior. We instead construct a confidence sequence (CS) for the unknown function using martingale techniques. There is a necessary cost to achieving robustness: if the prior was correct, posterior GP bands are narrower than our CS. Nevertheless, when the prior is wrong, our CS is statistically valid and empirically outperforms standard GP methods, in terms of both coverage and utility for BO. Additionally, we demonstrate that powered likelihoods provide robustness against model misspecification.

Targeted Learning is a subfield of statistics that unifies advances in causal inference, machine learning and statistical theory to help answer scientifically impactful questions with statistical confidence. Targeted Learning is driven by complex problems in data science and has been implemented in a diversity of real-world scenarios: observational studies with missing treatments and outcomes, personalized interventions, longitudinal settings with time-varying treatment regimes, survival analysis, adaptive randomized trials, mediation analysis, and networks of connected subjects. In contrast to the (mis)application of restrictive modeling strategies that dominate the current practice of statistics, Targeted Learning establishes a principled standard for statistical estimation and inference (i.e., confidence intervals and p-values). This multiply robust approach is accompanied by a guiding roadmap and a burgeoning software ecosystem, both of which provide guidance on the construction of estimators optimized to best answer the motivating question. The roadmap of Targeted Learning emphasizes tailoring statistical procedures so as to minimize their assumptions, carefully grounding them only in the scientific knowledge available. The end result is a framework that honestly reflects the uncertainty in both the background knowledge and the available data in order to draw reliable conclusions from statistical analyses -- ultimately enhancing the reproducibility and rigor of scientific findings.

A spectral mixture (SM) kernel is a flexible kernel used to model any stationary covariance function. Although it is useful in modeling data, the learning of the SM kernel is generally difficult because optimizing a large number of parameters for the SM kernel typically induces an over-fitting, particularly when a gradient-based optimization is used. Also, a longer training time is required. To improve the training, we propose an approximate Bayesian inference for the SM kernel. Specifically, we employ the variational distribution of the spectral points to approximate SM kernel with a random Fourier feature. We optimize the variational parameters by applying a sampling-based variational inference to the derived evidence lower bound (ELBO) estimator constructed from the approximate kernel. To improve the inference, we further propose two additional strategies: (1) a sampling strategy of spectral points to estimate the ELBO estimator reliably and thus its associated gradient, and (2) an approximate natural gradient to accelerate the convergence of the parameters. The proposed inference combined with two strategies accelerates the convergence of the parameters and leads to better optimal parameters.

We present a new approach for sampling conditional measures that enables uncertainty quantification in supervised learning tasks. We construct a mapping that transforms a reference measure to the probability measure of the output conditioned on new inputs. The mapping is trained via a modification of generative adversarial networks (GANs), called monotone GANs, that imposes monotonicity constraints and a block triangular structure. We present theoretical results, in an idealized setting, that support our proposed method as well as numerical experiments demonstrating the ability of our method to sample the correct conditional measures in applications ranging from inverse problems to image in-painting.

Local structure such as context-specific independence (CSI) has received much attention in the probabilistic graphical model (PGM) literature, as it facilitates the modeling of large complex systems, as well as for reasoning with them. In this paper, we provide a new perspective on how to learn CSIs from data. We propose to first learn a functional and parameterized representation of a conditional probability table (CPT), such as a neural network. Next, we quantize this continuous function, into an arithmetic circuit representation that facilitates efficient inference. In the first step, we can leverage the many powerful tools that have been developed in the machine learning literature. In the second step, we exploit more recently-developed analytic tools from explainable AI, for the purposes of learning CSIs. Finally, we contrast our approach, empirically and conceptually, with more traditional variable-splitting approaches, that search for CSIs more explicitly.