Uncertainty
A One-Pass Private Sketch for Most Machine Learning Tasks
Coleman, Benjamin, Shrivastava, Anshumali
Differential privacy (DP) is a compelling privacy definition that explains the privacy-utility tradeoff via formal, provable guarantees. Inspired by recent progress toward general-purpose data release algorithms, we propose a private sketch, or small summary of the dataset, that supports a multitude of machine learning tasks including regression, classification, density estimation, near-neighbor search, and more. Our sketch consists of randomized contingency tables that are indexed with locality-sensitive hashing and constructed with an efficient one-pass algorithm. We prove competitive error bounds for DP kernel density estimation. Existing methods for DP kernel density estimation scale poorly, often exponentially slower with an increase in dimensions. In contrast, our sketch can quickly run on large, high-dimensional datasets in a single pass. Exhaustive experiments show that our generic sketch delivers a similar privacy-utility tradeoff when compared to existing DP methods at a fraction of the computation cost. We expect that our sketch will enable differential privacy in distributed, large-scale machine learning settings.
A Survey of Constrained Gaussian Process Regression: Approaches and Implementation Challenges
Swiler, Laura, Gulian, Mamikon, Frankel, Ari, Safta, Cosmin, Jakeman, John
Gaussian process regression is a popular Bayesian framework for surrogate modeling of expensive data sources. As part of a broader effort in scientific machine learning, many recent works have incorporated physical constraints or other a priori information within Gaussian process regression to supplement limited data and regularize the behavior of the model. We provide an overview and survey of several classes of Gaussian process constraints, including positivity or bound constraints, monotonicity and convexity constraints, differential equation constraints provided by linear PDEs, and boundary condition constraints. We compare the strategies behind each approach as well as the differences in implementation, concluding with a discussion of the computational challenges introduced by constraints.
Discovering outstanding subgroup lists for numeric targets using MDL
Proença, Hugo M., Grünwald, Peter, Bäck, Thomas, van Leeuwen, Matthijs
The task of subgroup discovery (SD) is to find interpretable descriptions of subsets of a dataset that stand out with respect to a target attribute. To address the problem of mining large numbers of redundant subgroups, subgroup set discovery (SSD) has been proposed. State-of-the-art SSD methods have their limitations though, as they typically heavily rely on heuristics and/or user-chosen hyperparameters. We propose a dispersion-aware problem formulation for subgroup set discovery that is based on the minimum description length (MDL) principle and subgroup lists. We argue that the best subgroup list is the one that best summarizes the data given the overall distribution of the target. We restrict our focus to a single numeric target variable and show that our formalization coincides with an existing quality measure when finding a single subgroup, but that-in addition-it allows to trade off subgroup quality with the complexity of the subgroup. We next propose SSD++, a heuristic algorithm for which we empirically demonstrate that it returns outstanding subgroup lists: non-redundant sets of compact subgroups that stand out by having strongly deviating means and small spread.
Deterministic Inference of Neural Stochastic Differential Equations
Look, Andreas, Qiu, Chen, Rudolph, Maja, Peters, Jan, Kandemir, Melih
Model noise is known to have detrimental effects on neural networks, such as training instability and predictive distributions with non-calibrated uncertainty properties. These factors set bottlenecks on the expressive potential of Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (NSDEs), a model family that employs neural nets on both drift and diffusion functions. We introduce a novel algorithm that solves a generic NSDE using only deterministic approximation methods. Given a discretization, we estimate the marginal distribution of the It\^{o} process implied by the NSDE using a recursive scheme to propagate deterministic approximations of the statistical moments across time steps. The proposed algorithm comes with theoretical guarantees on numerical stability and convergence to the true solution, enabling its computational use for robust, accurate, and efficient prediction of long sequences. We observe our novel algorithm to behave interpretably on synthetic setups and to improve the state of the art on two challenging real-world tasks.
Image Restoration from Parametric Transformations using Generative Models
Basioti, Kalliopi, Moustakides, George V.
When images are statistically described by a generative model we can use this information to develop optimum techniques for various image restoration problems as inpainting, super-resolution, image coloring, generative model inversion, etc. With the help of the generative model it is possible to formulate, in a natural way, these restoration problems as Statistical estimation problems. Our approach, by combining maximum a-posteriori probability with maximum likelihood estimation, is capable of restoring images that are distorted by transformations even when the latter contain unknown parameters. The resulting optimization is completely defined with no parameters requiring tuning. This must be compared with the current state of the art which requires exact knowledge of the transformations and contains regularizer terms with weights that must be properly defined. Finally, we must mention that we extend our method to accommodate mixtures of multiple images where each image is described by its own generative model and we are able of successfully separating each participating image from a single mixture.
Algorithmic recourse under imperfect causal knowledge: a probabilistic approach
Karimi, Amir-Hossein, von Kügelgen, Julius, Schölkopf, Bernhard, Valera, Isabel
Recent work has discussed the limitations of counterfactual explanations to recommend actions for algorithmic recourse, and argued for the need of taking causal relationships between features into consideration. Unfortunately, in practice, the true underlying structural causal model is generally unknown. In this work, we first show that it is impossible to guarantee recourse without access to the true structural equations. To address this limitation, we propose two probabilistic approaches to select optimal actions that achieve recourse with high probability given limited causal knowledge (e.g., only the causal graph). The first captures uncertainty over structural equations under additive Gaussian noise, and uses Bayesian model averaging to estimate the counterfactual distribution. The second removes any assumptions on the structural equations by instead computing the average effect of recourse actions on individuals similar to the person who seeks recourse, leading to a novel subpopulation-based interventional notion of recourse. We then derive a gradient-based procedure for selecting optimal recourse actions, and empirically show that the proposed approaches lead to more reliable recommendations under imperfect causal knowledge than non-probabilistic baselines.
The Power Spherical distribution
There is a growing interest in probabilistic models defined in hyper-spherical spaces, be it to accommodate observed data or latent structure. The von Mises-Fisher (vMF) distribution, often regarded as the Normal distribution on the hyper-sphere, is a standard modeling choice: it is an exponential family and thus enjoys important statistical results, for example, known Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence from other vMF distributions. Sampling from a vMF distribution, however, requires a rejection sampling procedure which besides being slow poses difficulties in the context of stochastic backpropagation via the reparameterization trick. Moreover, this procedure is numerically unstable for certain vMFs, e.g., those with high concentration and/or in high dimensions. We propose a novel distribution, the Power Spherical distribution, which retains some of the important aspects of the vMF (e.g., support on the hyper-sphere, symmetry about its mean direction parameter, known KL from other vMF distributions) while addressing its main drawbacks (i.e., scalability and numerical stability). We demonstrate the stability of Power Spherical distributions with a numerical experiment and further apply it to a variational auto-encoder trained on MNIST. Code at: https://github.com/nicola-decao/power_spherical
DreamCoder: Growing generalizable, interpretable knowledge with wake-sleep Bayesian program learning
Ellis, Kevin, Wong, Catherine, Nye, Maxwell, Sable-Meyer, Mathias, Cary, Luc, Morales, Lucas, Hewitt, Luke, Solar-Lezama, Armando, Tenenbaum, Joshua B.
Expert problem-solving is driven by powerful languages for thinking about problems and their solutions. Acquiring expertise means learning these languages -- systems of concepts, alongside the skills to use them. We present DreamCoder, a system that learns to solve problems by writing programs. It builds expertise by creating programming languages for expressing domain concepts, together with neural networks to guide the search for programs within these languages. A ``wake-sleep'' learning algorithm alternately extends the language with new symbolic abstractions and trains the neural network on imagined and replayed problems. DreamCoder solves both classic inductive programming tasks and creative tasks such as drawing pictures and building scenes. It rediscovers the basics of modern functional programming, vector algebra and classical physics, including Newton's and Coulomb's laws. Concepts are built compositionally from those learned earlier, yielding multi-layered symbolic representations that are interpretable and transferrable to new tasks, while still growing scalably and flexibly with experience.
Symbolic Logic meets Machine Learning: A Brief Survey in Infinite Domains
The tension between deduction and induction is perhaps the most fundamental issue in areas such as philosophy, cognition and artificial intelligence (AI). The deduction camp concerns itself with questions about the expressiveness of formal languages for capturing knowledge about the world, together with proof systems for reasoning from such knowledge bases. The learning camp attempts to generalize from examples about partial descriptions about the world. In AI, historically, these camps have loosely divided the development of the field, but advances in cross-over areas such as statistical relational learning, neuro-symbolic systems, and high-level control have illustrated that the dichotomy is not very constructive, and perhaps even ill-formed. In this article, we survey work that provides further evidence for the connections between logic and learning. Our narrative is structured in terms of three strands: logic versus learning, machine learning for logic, and logic for machine learning, but naturally, there is considerable overlap. We place an emphasis on the following "sore" point: there is a common misconception that logic is for discrete properties, whereas probability theory and machine learning, more generally, is for continuous properties. We report on results that challenge this view on the limitations of logic, and expose the role that logic can play for learning in infinite domains.
p-d-Separation -- A Concept for Expressing Dependence/Independence Relations in Causal Networks
Spirtes, Glymour and Scheines formulated a Conjecture that a direct dependence test and a head-to-head meeting test would suffice to construe directed acyclic graph decompositions of a joint probability distribution (Bayesian network) for which Pearl's d-separation applies. This Conjecture was later shown to be a direct consequence of a result of Pearl and Verma. This paper is intended to prove this Conjecture in a new way, by exploiting the concept of p-d-separation (partial dependency separation). While Pearl's d-separation works with Bayesian networks, p-d-separation is intended to apply to causal networks: that is partially oriented networks in which orientations are given to only to those edges, that express statistically confirmed causal influence, whereas undirected edges express existence of direct influence without possibility of determination of direction of causation. As a consequence of the particular way of proving the validity of this Conjecture, an algorithm for construction of all the directed acyclic graphs (dags) carrying the available independence information is also presented. The notion of a partially oriented graph (pog) is introduced and within this graph the notion of p-d-separation is defined. It is demonstrated that the p-d-separation within the pog is equivalent to d-separation in all derived dags.