This article deals with the sequential design of experiments for (deterministic or stochastic) multi-fidelity numerical simulators, that is, simulators that offer control over the accuracy of simulation of the physical phenomenon or system under study. Very often, accurate simulations correspond to high computational efforts whereas coarse simulations can be obtained at a smaller cost. In this setting, simulation results obtained at several levels of fidelity can be combined in order to estimate quantities of interest (the optimal value of the output, the probability that the output exceeds a given threshold...) in an efficient manner. To do so, we propose a new Bayesian sequential strategy called Maximal Rate of Stepwise Uncertainty Reduction (MR-SUR), that selects additional simulations to be performed by maximizing the ratio between the expected reduction of uncertainty and the cost of simulation. This generic strategy unifies several existing methods, and provides a principled approach to develop new ones. We assess its performance on several examples, including a computationally intensive problem of fire safety analysis where the quantity of interest is the probability of exceeding a tenability threshold during a building fire.

The SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) pandemic has caused significant strain on public health institutions around the world. Contact tracing is an essential tool to change the course of the Covid-19 pandemic. Manual contact tracing of Covid-19 cases has significant challenges that limit the ability of public health authorities to minimize community infections. Personalized peer-to-peer contact tracing through the use of mobile apps has the potential to shift the paradigm. Some countries have deployed centralized tracking systems, but more privacy-protecting decentralized systems offer much of the same benefit without concentrating data in the hands of a state authority or for-profit corporations. Machine learning methods can circumvent some of the limitations of standard digital tracing by incorporating many clues and their uncertainty into a more graded and precise estimation of infection risk. The estimated risk can provide early risk awareness, personalized recommendations and relevant information to the user. Finally, non-identifying risk data can inform epidemiological models trained jointly with the machine learning predictor. These models can provide statistical evidence for the importance of factors involved in disease transmission. They can also be used to monitor, evaluate and optimize health policy and (de)confinement scenarios according to medical and economic productivity indicators. However, such a strategy based on mobile apps and machine learning should proactively mitigate potential ethical and privacy risks, which could have substantial impacts on society (not only impacts on health but also impacts such as stigmatization and abuse of personal data). Here, we present an overview of the rationale, design, ethical considerations and privacy strategy of `COVI,' a Covid-19 public peer-to-peer contact tracing and risk awareness mobile application developed in Canada.

This version has preliminary implementations of automatic differentiation and of arithmetic on lists. These are both useful for gradient-based optimization, such as maximum likelihood estimation and neural network training, as well as gradient-based MCMC methods. List arithmetic is helpful when dealing with models that have several groups of parameters, which are most conveniently represented using a list of vectors or matrices, rather than a single vector. You can read the documentation on these facilities here and here. Some example programs are in this repository.

Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) is a supervised learning algorithm extended from Support Vector Machine (SVM) based on the Bayesian sparsity model. Compared with the regression problem, RVM classification is difficult to be conducted because there is no closed-form solution for the weight parameter posterior. Original RVM classification algorithm used Newton's method in optimization to obtain the mode of weight parameter posterior then approximated it by a Gaussian distribution in Laplace's method. It would work but just applied the frequency methods in a Bayesian framework. This paper proposes a Generic Bayesian approach for the RVM classification. We conjecture that our algorithm achieves convergent estimates of the quantities of interest compared with the nonconvergent estimates of the original RVM classification algorithm. Furthermore, a Fully Bayesian approach with the hierarchical hyperprior structure for RVM classification is proposed, which improves the classification performance, especially in the imbalanced data problem. By the numeric studies, our proposed algorithms obtain high classification accuracy rates. The Fully Bayesian hierarchical hyperprior method outperforms the Generic one for the imbalanced data classification.

Unsatisfying accuracy of learning methods is mostly caused by omitting the influence of important parameters such as membership assignments, type of data objects, and distance or similarity functions. The proposed method, called Bounded Fuzzy Possibilistic Method (BFPM) addresses different issues that previous clustering or classification methods have not sufficiently considered in their membership assignments. In fuzzy methods, the object's memberships should sum to 1. Hence, any data object may obtain full membership in at most one cluster or class. Possibilistic methods relax this condition, but the method can be satisfied with the results even if just an arbitrary object obtains the membership from just one cluster, which prevents the objects' movement analysis. Whereas, BFPM differs from previous fuzzy and possibilistic approaches by removing these restrictions. Furthermore, BFPM provides the flexible search space for objects' movement analysis. Data objects are also considered as fundamental keys in learning methods, and knowing the exact type of objects results in providing a suitable environment for learning algorithms. The Thesis introduces a new type of object, called critical, as well as categorizing data objects into two different categories: structural-based and behavioural-based. Critical objects are considered as causes of miss-classification and miss-assignment in learning procedures. The Thesis also proposes new methodologies to study the behaviour of critical objects with the aim of evaluating objects' movements (mutation) from one cluster or class to another. The Thesis also introduces a new type of feature, called dominant, that is considered as one of the causes of miss-classification and miss-assignments. Then the Thesis proposes new sets of similarity functions, called Weighted Feature Distance (WFD) and Prioritized Weighted Feature Distance (PWFD).

Meta-planning, or learning to guide planning from experience, is a promising approach to improving the computational cost of planning. A general meta-planning strategy is to learn to impose constraints on the states considered and actions taken by the agent. We observe that (1) imposing a constraint can induce context-specific independences that render some aspects of the domain irrelevant, and (2) an agent can take advantage of this fact by imposing constraints on its own behavior. These observations lead us to propose the context-specific abstract Markov decision process (CAMP), an abstraction of a factored MDP that affords efficient planning. We then describe how to learn constraints to impose so the CAMP optimizes a trade-off between rewards and computational cost. Our experiments consider five planners across four domains, including robotic navigation among movable obstacles (NAMO), robotic task and motion planning for sequential manipulation, and classical planning. We find planning with learned CAMPs to consistently outperform baselines, including Stilman's NAMO-specific algorithm. Video: https://youtu.be/wTXt6djcAd4

Prob-solvable loops are probabilistic programs with polynomial assignments over random variables and parametrised distributions, for which the full automation of moment-based invariant generation is decidable. In this paper we extend Prob-solvable loops with new features essential for encoding Bayesian networks (BNs). We show that various BNs, such as discrete, Gaussian, conditional linear Gaussian and dynamic BNs, can be naturally encoded as Prob-solvable loops. Thanks to these encodings, we can automatically solve several BN related problems, including exact inference, sensitivity analysis, filtering and computing the expected number of rejecting samples in sampling-based procedures. We evaluate our work on a number of BN benchmarks, using automated invariant generation within Prob-solvable loop analysis.

We posit that autoregressive flow models are well-suited to performing a range of causal inference tasks - ranging from causal discovery to making interventional and counterfactual predictions. In particular, we exploit the fact that autoregressive architectures define an ordering over variables, analogous to a causal ordering, in order to propose a single flow architecture to perform all three aforementioned tasks. We first leverage the fact that flow models estimate normalized log-densities of data to derive a bivariate measure of causal direction based on likelihood ratios. Whilst traditional measures of causal direction often require restrictive assumptions on the nature of causal relationships (e.g., linearity),the flexibility of flow models allows for arbitrary causal dependencies. Our approach compares favourably against alternative methods on synthetic data as well as on the Cause-Effect Pairs bench-mark dataset. Subsequently, we demonstrate that the invertible nature of flows naturally allows for direct evaluation of both interventional and counterfactual predictions, which require marginalization and conditioning over latent variables respectively. We present examples over synthetic data where autoregressive flows, when trained under the correct causal ordering, are able to make accurate interventional and counterfactual predictions

This paper will focus on the process of 'fusing' several observations or models of uncertainty into a single resultant model. Many existing approaches to fusion use subjective quantities such as 'strengths of belief' and process these quantities with heuristic algorithms. This paper argues in favor of quantities that can be objectively measured, as opposed to the subjective 'strength of belief' values. This paper will focus on probability distributions, and more importantly, structures that denote sets of probability distributions known as 'credal sets'. The novel aspect of this paper will be a taxonomy of models of fusion that use specific types of credal sets, namely probability interval distributions and Dempster-Shafer models. An objective requirement for information fusion algorithms is provided, and is satisfied by all models of fusion presented in this paper. Dempster's rule of combination is shown to not satisfy this requirement. This paper will also assess the computational challenges involved for the proposed fusion approaches.

The paper presents the approach for the building of consistent and applicable clinical decision support systems (CDSS) using a data-driven predictive model aimed to resolve a problem of low applicability and scalability of CDSS in real-world applications. The approach is based on the three-stage application of domain-specific and data-driven supportive procedures to integrate into clinical business-processes with higher trust and explainability of the prediction results and recommendations. Within the considered three stages, the regulatory policy, data-driven modes, and interpretation procedures are integrated to enable natural domain-specific interaction with decision-makers with sequential narrowing of the intelligent decision support focus. The proposed methodology enables a higher level of automation, scalability, and semantic interpretability of CDSS. The approach was implemented in software solutions and tested within a case study in T2DM prediction, enabling to improve known clinical scales (such as FINDRISK), keeping the problem-specific reasoning interface similar to existing applications. Such inheritance, together with the three-stages approach, provide higher compatibility of the solution and leads to trust, valid, and explainable application of data-driven solution in real-world cases.