Let $(X, S, Y) \in \mathbb{R}^p \times \{1, 2\} \times \mathbb{R}$ be a triplet following some joint distribution $\mathbb{P}$ with feature vector $X$, sensitive attribute $S$ , and target variable $Y$. The Bayes optimal prediction $f^*$ which does not produce Disparate Treatment is defined as $f^*(x) = \mathbb{E}[Y | X = x]$. We provide a non-trivial example of a prediction $x \to f(x)$ which satisfies two common group-fairness notions: Demographic Parity \begin{align} (f(X) | S = 1) &\stackrel{d}{=} (f(X) | S = 2) \end{align} and Equal Group-Wise Risks \begin{align} \mathbb{E}[(f^*(X) - f(X))^2 | S = 1] = \mathbb{E}[(f^*(X) - f(X))^2 | S = 2]. \end{align} To the best of our knowledge this is the first explicit construction of a non-constant predictor satisfying the above. We discuss several implications of this result on better understanding of mathematical notions of algorithmic fairness.

We consider the problem of expected risk minimization when the population loss is strongly convex and the target domain of the decision variable is required to be nonnegative, motivated by the settings of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and trajectory optimization. We restrict focus to the case that the decision variable belongs to a nonparametric Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). To solve it, we consider stochastic mirror descent that employs (i) pseudo-gradients and (ii) projections. Compressive projections are executed via kernel orthogonal matching pursuit (KOMP), and overcome the fact that the vanilla RKHS parameterization grows unbounded with time. Moreover, pseudo-gradients are needed, e.g., when stochastic gradients themselves define integrals over unknown quantities that must be evaluated numerically, as in estimating the intensity parameter of an inhomogeneous Poisson Process, and multi-class kernel logistic regression with latent multi-kernels. We establish tradeoffs between accuracy of convergence in mean and the projection budget parameter under constant step-size and compression budget, as well as non-asymptotic bounds on the model complexity. Experiments demonstrate that we achieve state-of-the-art accuracy and complexity tradeoffs for inhomogeneous Poisson Process intensity estimation and multi-class kernel logistic regression.

Several researchers have proposed minimisation of maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) as a method to quantise probability measures, i.e., to approximate a target distribution by a representative point set. Here we consider sequential algorithms that greedily minimise MMD over a discrete candidate set. We propose a novel non-myopic algorithm and, in order to both improve statistical efficiency and reduce computational cost, we investigate a variant that applies this technique to a mini-batch of the candidate set at each iteration. When the candidate points are sampled from the target, the consistency of these new algorithm - and their mini-batch variants - is established. We demonstrate the algorithms on a range of important computational problems, including optimisation of nodes in Bayesian cubature and the thinning of Markov chain output.

We present Model-Predictive Interaction Primitives -- a robot learning framework for assistive motion in human-machine collaboration tasks which explicitly accounts for biomechanical impact on the human musculoskeletal system. First, we extend Interaction Primitives to enable predictive biomechanics: the prediction of future biomechanical states of a human partner conditioned on current observations and intended robot control signals. In turn, we leverage this capability within a model-predictive control strategy to identify the future ergonomic and biomechanical ramifications of potential robot actions. Optimal control trajectories are selected so as to minimize future physical impact on the human musculoskeletal system. We empirically demonstrate that our approach minimizes knee or muscle forces via generated control actions selected according to biomechanical cost functions. Experiments are performed in synthetic and real-world experiments involving powered prosthetic devices.

Naive Bayes Classifiers are probabilistic models that are used for the classification task. It is based on the Bayes theorem with an assumption of independence among predictors. In the real-world, the independence assumption may or may not be true, but still, Naive Bayes performs well. Naive It is called naive because it assumes that all features in the dataset are mutually independent. Bayes, It is based on Bayes Theorem.

Many scientifically well-motivated statistical models in natural, engineering, and environmental sciences are specified through a generative process. However, in some cases, it may not be possible to write down the likelihood for these models analytically. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods allow Bayesian inference in such situations. The procedures are nonetheless typically computationally intensive. Recently, computationally attractive empirical likelihood-based ABC methods have been suggested in the literature. All of these methods rely on the availability of several suitable analytically tractable estimating equations, and this is sometimes problematic. We propose an easy-to-use empirical likelihood ABC method in this article. First, by using a variational approximation argument as a motivation, we show that the target log-posterior can be approximated as a sum of an expected joint log-likelihood and the differential entropy of the data generating density. The expected log-likelihood is then estimated by an empirical likelihood where the only inputs required are a choice of summary statistic, it's observed value, and the ability to simulate the chosen summary statistics for any parameter value under the model. The differential entropy is estimated from the simulated summaries using traditional methods. Posterior consistency is established for the method, and we discuss the bounds for the required number of simulated summaries in detail. The performance of the proposed method is explored in various examples.

Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) generalizes Bayesian probability theory, offering useful additional information, but suffers from a much higher computational burden. A lot of work has been done to reduce the time complexity of information fusion with Dempster's rule, which is a pointwise multiplication of two zeta transforms, and optimal general algorithms have been found to get the complete definition of these transforms. Yet, it is shown in this paper that the zeta transform and its inverse, the M\"obius transform, can be exactly simplified, fitting the quantity of information contained in belief functions. Beyond that, this simplification actually works for any function on any partially ordered set. It relies on a new notion that we call focal point and that constitutes the smallest domain on which both the zeta and M\"obius transforms can be defined. We demonstrate the interest of these general results for DST, not only for the reduction in complexity of most transformations between belief representations and their fusion, but also for theoretical purposes. Indeed, we provide a new generalization of the conjunctive decomposition of evidence and formulas uncovering how each decomposition weight is tied to the corresponding mass function.

Many of us who follow the NBA Draft closely have a keen desire to know the precise ordering of the Draft, eg where each player will be taken ("where" having a dual meaning here, both the team and draft slot). To this end, it is common behavior to ingest the information we get from the dozen or more "prominent" mock drafts available leading up to the Draft. There are different ways analysts and media try to aggregate this information into what I like to call "Meta Mocks". Typically this just involves very simple operations like averaging ranks or looking at the minimum and maximum draft position. Chris Feller just the other day shared a very cool approach using survival analysis.

Recently it has also become increasingly important in marketing, medicine and political sciences. Process systems engineering community adopts mathematical models successfully in various endeavors such as product and plant design, control system design, operations optimization, etc. (Pantelides and Renfro, 2013; Fung et al., 2016; Safdarnejad et al., 2016). A mathematical model is usually an abstract representation of a true system via sets of equations (algebraic, ordinary differential or partial differential), inequalities (e.g., a range of model validity), and logical conditions. Model development is usually divided into three major steps a) identification of the model structure, b) design and realization of the experiments, and c) estimation of the unknown parameters. In the latter phase, one often realizes maximum-likelihood estimation via least-squares methodology as he/she assumes--knowingly or not--that the measurement error present in the measured data is statistically distributed as a white Gaussian noise. Once the parameter estimates are known, the experimenter commonly determines the quality of the obtained model. This can be done either by using some validation data--if available--or via assessing the joint-confidence regions of the estimated parameters (Beale, 1960; Bates and Watts, 1988; Rooney and Biegler, 2001; Seber and Wild, 2003).

In this comprehensive review, we describe a new mathematical problem in artificial intelligence (AI) from a mathematical modeling perspective, following the philosophy stated by Rudolf E. Kalman that "Once you get the physics right, the rest is mathematics". The new problem is called "Generalized Constraints (GCs)", and we adopt GCs as a general term to describe any type of prior information in modelings. To understand better about GCs to be a general problem, we compare them with the conventional constraints (CCs) and list their extra challenges over CCs. In the construction of AI machines, we basically encounter more often GCs for modeling, rather than CCs with well-defined forms. Furthermore, we discuss the ultimate goals of AI and redefine transparent, interpretable, and explainable AI in terms of comprehension levels about machines. We review the studies in relation to the GC problems although most of them do not take the notion of GCs. We demonstrate that if AI machines are simplified by a coupling with both knowledge-driven submodel and data-driven submodel, GCs will play a critical role in a knowledge-driven submodel as well as in the coupling form between the two submodels. Examples are given to show that the studies in view of a generalized constraint problem will help us perceive and explore novel subjects in AI, or even in mathematics, such as generalized constraint learning (GCL).