Score based learning (SBL) is a promising approach for learning Bayesian networks. The initial step in the majority of the SBL algorithms consists of computing the scores of all possible child and parent-set combinations for the variables. For Bayesian networks with continuous variables, a particular score is usually calculated as a function of the regression of the child over the variables in the parent-set. The sheer number of regressions models to be solved necessitates the design of efficient numerical algorithms. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for an efficient and exact calculation of regressions for all child and parent-set combinations. In the proposed algorithm, we use QR decompositions (QRDs) to capture the dependencies between the regressions for different families and Givens rotations to efficiently traverse through the space of QRDs such that all the regression models are accounted for in the shortest path possible. We compare the complexity of the suggested method with different algorithms, mainly those arising in all subset regression problems, and show that our algorithm has the smallest algorithmic complexity. We also explain how to parallelize the proposed method so as to decrease the runtime by a factor proportional to the number of processors utilized.

Generative models for classification use the joint probability distribution of the class variable and the features to construct a decision rule. Among generative models, Bayesian networks and naive Bayes classifiers are the most commonly used and provide a clear graphical representation of the relationship among all variables. However, these have the disadvantage of highly restricting the type of relationships that could exist, by not allowing for context-specific independences. Here we introduce a new class of generative classifiers, called staged tree classifiers, which formally account for context-specific independence. They are constructed by a partitioning of the vertices of an event tree from which conditional independence can be formally read. The naive staged tree classifier is also defined, which extends the classic naive Bayes classifier whilst retaining the same complexity. An extensive simulation study shows that the classification accuracy of staged tree classifiers is competitive with those of state-of-the-art classifiers. An applied analysis to predict the fate of the passengers of the Titanic highlights the insights that the new class of generative classifiers can give.

Traditional deep neural networks (NNs) have significantly contributed to the state-of-the-art performance in the task of classification under various application domains. However, NNs have not considered inherent uncertainty in data associated with the class probabilities where misclassification under uncertainty may easily introduce high risk in decision making in real-world contexts (e.g., misclassification of objects in roads leads to serious accidents). Unlike Bayesian NN that indirectly infer uncertainty through weight uncertainties, evidential NNs (ENNs) have been recently proposed to explicitly model the uncertainty of class probabilities and use them for classification tasks. An ENN offers the formulation of the predictions of NNs as subjective opinions and learns the function by collecting an amount of evidence that can form the subjective opinions by a deterministic NN from data. However, the ENN is trained as a black box without explicitly considering inherent uncertainty in data with their different root causes, such as vacuity (i.e., uncertainty due to a lack of evidence) or dissonance (i.e., uncertainty due to conflicting evidence). By considering the multidimensional uncertainty, we proposed a novel uncertainty-aware evidential NN called WGAN-ENN (WENN) for solving an out-of-distribution (OOD) detection problem. We took a hybrid approach that combines Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network (WGAN) with ENNs to jointly train a model with prior knowledge of a certain class, which has high vacuity for OOD samples. Via extensive empirical experiments based on both synthetic and real-world datasets, we demonstrated that the estimation of uncertainty by WENN can significantly help distinguish OOD samples from boundary samples. WENN outperformed in OOD detection when compared with other competitive counterparts.

We study batch normalisation in the context of variational inference methods in Bayesian neural networks, such as mean-field or MC Dropout. We show that batch-normalisation does not affect the optimum of the evidence lower bound (ELBO). Furthermore, we study the Monte Carlo Batch Normalisation (MCBN) algorithm, proposed as an approximate inference technique parallel to MC Dropout, and show that for larger batch sizes, MCBN fails to capture epistemic uncertainty. Finally, we provide insights into what is required to fix this failure, namely having to view the mini-batch size as a variational parameter in MCBN. We comment on the asymptotics of the ELBO with respect to this variational parameter, showing that as dataset size increases towards infinity, the batch-size must increase towards infinity as well for MCBN to be a valid approximate inference technique.

A classical problem in city-scale cyber-physical systems (CPS) is resource allocation under uncertainty. Spatial-temporal allocation of resources is optimized to allocate electric scooters across urban areas, place charging stations for vehicles, and design efficient on-demand transit. Typically, such problems are modeled as Markov (or semi-Markov) decision processes. While online, offline, and decentralized methodologies have been used to tackle such problems, none of the approaches scale well for large-scale decision problems. We create a general approach to hierarchical planning that leverages structure in city-level CPS problems to tackle resource allocation under uncertainty. We use emergency response as a case study and show how a large resource allocation problem can be split into smaller problems. We then create a principled framework for solving the smaller problems and tackling the interaction between them. Finally, we use real-world data from a major metropolitan area in the United States to validate our approach. Our experiments show that the proposed approach outperforms state-of-the-art approaches used in the field of emergency response.

The paper relies on the clinical data of a previously published study. We identify two very questionable assumptions of said work, namely confusing evidence of absence and absence of evidence, and neglecting the ordinal nature of attributes' domains. We then show that using an adequate ordinal methodology such as the dominance-based rough sets approach (DRSA) can significantly improve the predictive accuracy of the expert system, resulting in almost complete accuracy for a dataset of 100 instances. Beyond the performance of DRSA in solving the diagnosis problem at hand, these results suggest the inadequacy and triviality of the underlying dataset. We provide links to open data from the UCI machine learning repository to allow for an easy verification/refutation of the claims made in this paper. Keywords: Decision Support Systems, Expert Systems, Dominance Based Rough Set Approach, Diagnosis, Seminal Quality.

Historical data about disease outcomes can be integrated into the analysis of clinical trials in many ways. We build on existing literature that uses prognostic scores from a predictive model to increase the efficiency of treatment effect estimates via covariate adjustment. Here we go further, utilizing a Bayesian framework that combines prognostic covariate adjustment with an empirical prior distribution learned from the predictive performances of the prognostic model on past trials. The Bayesian approach interpolates between prognostic covariate adjustment with strict type I error control when the prior is diffuse, and a single-arm trial when the prior is sharply peaked. This method is shown theoretically to offer a substantial increase in statistical power, while limiting the type I error rate under reasonable conditions. We demonstrate the utility of our method in simulations and with an analysis of a past Alzheimer's disease clinical trial.

Over the last decade, the long-running endeavour to automate high-level processes in machine learning (ML) has risen to mainstream prominence, stimulated by advances in optimisation techniques and their impact on selecting ML models/algorithms. Central to this drive is the appeal of engineering a computational system that both discovers and deploys high-performance solutions to arbitrary ML problems with minimal human interaction. Beyond this, an even loftier goal is the pursuit of autonomy, which describes the capability of the system to independently adjust an ML solution over a lifetime of changing contexts. However, these ambitions are unlikely to be achieved in a robust manner without the broader synthesis of various mechanisms and theoretical frameworks, which, at the present time, remain scattered across numerous research threads. Accordingly, this review seeks to motivate a more expansive perspective on what constitutes an automated/autonomous ML system, alongside consideration of how best to consolidate those elements. In doing so, we survey developments in the following research areas: hyperparameter optimisation, multi-component models, neural architecture search, automated feature engineering, meta-learning, multi-level ensembling, dynamic adaptation, multi-objective evaluation, resource constraints, flexible user involvement, and the principles of generalisation. We also develop a conceptual framework throughout the review, augmented by each topic, to illustrate one possible way of fusing high-level mechanisms into an autonomous ML system. Ultimately, we conclude that the notion of architectural integration deserves more discussion, without which the field of automated ML risks stifling both its technical advantages and general uptake.

In various cases of decision analysis we use two popular methods: Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and Fuzzy based AHP or Fuzzy AHP. Both the methods deal with stochastic data and can determine decision result through Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) process. Obviously resulting values of the two methods are not same though same set of data is fed into them. In this research work, we have tried to observe similarities and dissimilarities between two methods outputs. Almost same trend or fluctuations in outputs have been seen for both methods for same set of input data which are not consistent. Both method outputs ups and down fluctuations are same for fifty percent cases.

Bayesian Optimization (BO) has shown significant success in tackling expensive low-dimensional black-box optimization problems. Many optimization problems of interest are high-dimensional, and scaling BO to such settings remains an important challenge. In this paper, we consider generalized additive models in which low-dimensional functions with overlapping subsets of variables are composed to model a high-dimensional target function. Our goal is to lower the computational resources required and facilitate faster model learning by reducing the model complexity while retaining the sample-efficiency of existing methods. Specifically, we constrain the underlying dependency graphs to tree structures in order to facilitate both the structure learning and optimization of the acquisition function. For the former, we propose a hybrid graph learning algorithm based on Gibbs sampling and mutation. In addition, we propose a novel zooming-based algorithm that permits generalized additive models to be employed more efficiently in the case of continuous domains. We demonstrate and discuss the efficacy of our approach via a range of experiments on synthetic functions and real-world datasets.