Markov models are often used to capture the temporal patterns of sequential data for statistical learning applications. While the Hidden Markov modeling-based learning mechanisms are well studied in literature, we analyze a symbolic-dynamics inspired approach. Under this umbrella, Markov modeling of time-series data consists of two major steps -- discretization of continuous attributes followed by estimating the size of temporal memory of the discretized sequence. These two steps are critical for the accurate and concise representation of time-series data in the discrete space. Discretization governs the information content of the resultant discretized sequence. On the other hand, memory estimation of the symbolic sequence helps to extract the predictive patterns in the discretized data. Clearly, the effectiveness of signal representation as a discrete Markov process depends on both these steps. In this paper, we will review the different techniques for discretization and memory estimation for discrete stochastic processes. In particular, we will focus on the individual problems of discretization and order estimation for discrete stochastic process. We will present some results from literature on partitioning from dynamical systems theory and order estimation using concepts of information theory and statistical learning. The paper also presents some related problem formulations which will be useful for machine learning and statistical learning application using the symbolic framework of data analysis. We present some results of statistical analysis of a complex thermoacoustic instability phenomenon during lean-premixed combustion in jet-turbine engines using the proposed Markov modeling method.

We introduce a simple, rigorous, and unified framework for solving nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs), and for solving inverse problems (IPs) involving the identification of parameters in PDEs, using the framework of Gaussian processes. The proposed approach (1) provides a natural generalization of collocation kernel methods to nonlinear PDEs and IPs, (2) has guaranteed convergence with a path to compute error bounds in the PDE setting, and (3) inherits the state-of-the-art computational complexity of linear solvers for dense kernel matrices. The main idea of our method is to approximate the solution of a given PDE with a MAP estimator of a Gaussian process given the observation of the PDE at a finite number of collocation points. Although this optimization problem is infinite-dimensional, it can be reduced to a finite-dimensional one by introducing additional variables corresponding to the values of the derivatives of the solution at collocation points; this generalizes the representer theorem arising in Gaussian process regression. The reduced optimization problem has a quadratic loss and nonlinear constraints, and it is in turn solved with a variant of the Gauss-Newton method. The resulting algorithm (a) can be interpreted as solving successive linearizations of the nonlinear PDE, and (b) is found in practice to converge in a small number (two to ten) of iterations in experiments conducted on a range of PDEs. For IPs, while the traditional approach has been to iterate between the identifications of parameters in the PDE and the numerical approximation of its solution, our algorithm tackles both simultaneously. Experiments on nonlinear elliptic PDEs, Burgers' equation, a regularized Eikonal equation, and an IP for permeability identification in Darcy flow illustrate the efficacy and scope of our framework.

When linear models are fit to ill-conditioned or confounded narrow-data, TRACE plots are useful in demonstrating and justifying deliberately biased estimation. This makes TRACE diagnostics powerful "visual" displays. If advanced students of regression are trained in interpretation of Trace plots, they could help admininstrators capable of basic statistical thinking avoid misinterpretations of questionable regression coefficient estimates. All five types of ridge TRACE plots for a wide variety of ridge paths can be explored using R-functions. For example, the RXshrink aug.lars() function generates TRACE s for Least-Angle, Lasso and Forward Stagewise methods (Efron, Hastie, Johnstone and Tibshirani 2004; Hastie and

TL;DR: motivated to better understand the fundamental tradeoffs in federated learning, we present a probabilistic perspective that generalizes and improves upon federated optimization and enables a new class of efficient federated learning algorithms. Thanks to deep learning, today we can train better machine learning models when given access to massive data. However, the standard, centralized training is impossible in many interesting use-cases--due to the associated data transfer and maintenance costs (most notably in video analytics), privacy concerns (e.g., in healthcare settings), or sensitivity of the proprietary data (e.g., in drug discovery). And yet, different parties that own even a small amount of data want to benefit from access to accurate models. This is where federated learning comes to the rescue!

Approximating optimal policies in reinforcement learning (RL) is often necessary in many real-world scenarios, which is termed as policy optimization. By viewing the reinforcement learning from the perspective of variational inference (VI), the policy network is trained to obtain the approximate posterior of actions given the optimality criteria. However, in practice, the policy optimization may lead to suboptimal policy estimates due to the amortization gap and insufficient exploration. In this work, inspired by the previous use of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) in VI, we propose to integrate policy optimization with HMC. As such we choose evolving actions from the base policy according to HMC. First, HMC can improve the policy distribution to better approximate the posterior and hence reduces the amortization gap. Second, HMC can also guide the exploration more to the regions with higher action values, enhancing the exploration efficiency. Instead of directly applying HMC into RL, we propose a new leapfrog operator to simulate the Hamiltonian dynamics. With comprehensive empirical experiments on continuous control baselines, including MuJoCo, PyBullet Roboschool and DeepMind Control Suite, we show that the proposed approach is a data-efficient, and an easy-to-implement improvement over previous policy optimization methods. Besides, the proposed approach can also outperform previous methods on DeepMind Control Suite, which has image-based high-dimensional observation space.

We develop a novel hybrid method for Bayesian network structure learning called partitioned hybrid greedy search (pHGS), composed of three distinct yet compatible new algorithms: Partitioned PC (pPC) accelerates skeleton learning via a divide-and-conquer strategy, $p$-value adjacency thresholding (PATH) effectively accomplishes parameter tuning with a single execution, and hybrid greedy initialization (HGI) maximally utilizes constraint-based information to obtain a high-scoring and well-performing initial graph for greedy search. We establish structure learning consistency of our algorithms in the large-sample limit, and empirically validate our methods individually and collectively through extensive numerical comparisons. The combined merits of pPC and PATH achieve significant computational reductions compared to the PC algorithm without sacrificing the accuracy of estimated structures, and our generally applicable HGI strategy reliably improves the estimation structural accuracy of popular hybrid algorithms with negligible additional computational expense. Our empirical results demonstrate the superior empirical performance of pHGS against many state-of-the-art structure learning algorithms.

In this paper we perform a numerious numerical studies for the problem of low-rank matrix completion. We compare the Bayesain approaches and a recently introduced de-biased estimator which provides a useful way to build confidence intervals of interest. From a theoretical viewpoint, the de-biased estimator comes with a sharp minimax-optinmal rate of estimation error whereas the Bayesian approach reaches this rate with an additional logarithmic factor. Our simulation studies show originally interesting results that the de-biased estimator is just as good as the Bayesain estimators. Moreover, Bayesian approaches are much more stable and can outperform the de-biased estimator in the case of small samples. However, we also find that the length of the confidence intervals revealed by the de-biased estimator for an entry is absolutely shorter than the length of the considered credible interval. These suggest further theoretical studies on the estimation error and the concentration for Bayesian methods as they are being quite limited up to present.

Probabilistic modelling presents a natural way to model data by describing their (assumed) generative process. The model is then fit to observations by probabilistic inference algorithms. Learning from sensitive data, however, clearly raises concerns about privacy, calling for privacy-preserving model inference algorithms. Differential privacy (DP) [10] provides a rigorous mathematical framework for addressing such concerns and has become the de-facto standard notion for privacy. It essentially assures that an algorithms outputs will not differ significantly whether a specific individual's data record is included in the data set or not.

Out of the rich family of generalized linear bandits, perhaps the most well studied ones are logisitc bandits that are used in problems with binary rewards: for instance, when the learner/agent tries to maximize the profit over a user that can select one of two possible outcomes (e.g., `click' vs `no-click'). Despite remarkable recent progress and improved algorithms for logistic bandits, existing works do not address practical situations where the number of outcomes that can be selected by the user is larger than two (e.g., `click', `show me later', `never show again', `no click'). In this paper, we study such an extension. We use multinomial logit (MNL) to model the probability of each one of $K+1\geq 2$ possible outcomes (+1 stands for the `not click' outcome): we assume that for a learner's action $\mathbf{x}_t$, the user selects one of $K+1\geq 2$ outcomes, say outcome $i$, with a multinomial logit (MNL) probabilistic model with corresponding unknown parameter $\bar{\boldsymbol\theta}_{\ast i}$. Each outcome $i$ is also associated with a revenue parameter $\rho_i$ and the goal is to maximize the expected revenue. For this problem, we present MNL-UCB, an upper confidence bound (UCB)-based algorithm, that achieves regret $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(dK\sqrt{T})$ with small dependency on problem-dependent constants that can otherwise be arbitrarily large and lead to loose regret bounds. We present numerical simulations that corroborate our theoretical results.

We present a simple algorithm for identifying and correcting real-valued noisy labels from a mixture of clean and corrupted samples using Gaussian process regression. A heteroscedastic noise model is employed, in which additive Gaussian noise terms with independent variances are associated with each and all of the observed labels. Thus, the method effectively applies a sample-specific Tikhonov regularization term, generalizing the uniform regularization prevalent in standard Gaussian process regression. Optimizing the noise model using maximum likelihood estimation leads to the containment of the GPR model's predictive error by the posterior standard deviation in leave-one-out cross-validation. A multiplicative update scheme is proposed for solving the maximum likelihood estimation problem under non-negative constraints. While we provide a proof of monotonic convergence for certain special cases, the multiplicative scheme has empirically demonstrated monotonic convergence behavior in virtually all our numerical experiments. We show that the presented method can pinpoint corrupted samples and lead to better regression models when trained on synthetic and real-world scientific data sets.