In this paper we leverage on probability over Riemannian manifolds to rethink the interpretation of priors and posteriors in Bayesian inference. The main mindshift is to move away from the idea that "a prior distribution establishes a probability distribution over the parameters of our model" to the idea that "a prior distribution establishes a probability distribution over probability distributions". To do that we assume that our probabilistic model is a Riemannian manifold with the Fisher metric. Under this mindset, any distribution over probability distributions should be "intrinsic", that is, invariant to the specific parametrization which is selected for the manifold. We exemplify our ideas through a simple analysis of distributions over the manifold of Bernoulli distributions. One of the major shortcomings of maximum a posteriori estimates is that they depend on the parametrization. Based on the understanding developed here, we can define the maximum a posteriori estimate which is independent of the parametrization.

This paper discusses a new variant of the Henry Gas Solubility Optimization (HGSO) Algorithm, called Hybrid HGSO (HHGSO). Unlike its predecessor, HHGSO allows multiple clusters serving different individual meta-heuristic algorithms (i.e., with its own defined parameters and local best) to coexist within the same population. Exploiting the dynamic cluster-to-algorithm mapping via penalized and reward model with adaptive switching factor, HHGSO offers a novel approach for meta-heuristic hybridization consisting of Jaya Algorithm, Sooty Tern Optimization Algorithm, Butterfly Optimization Algorithm, and Owl Search Algorithm, respectively. The acquired results from the selected two case studies (i.e., involving team formation problem and combinatorial test suite generation) indicate that the hybridization has notably improved the performance of HGSO and gives superior performance against other competing meta-heuristic and hyper-heuristic algorithms.

Bayesian phylogenetic inference is often conducted via local or sequential search over topologies and branch lengths using algorithms such as random-walk Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or Combinatorial Sequential Monte Carlo (CSMC). However, when MCMC is used for evolutionary parameter learning, convergence requires long runs with inefficient exploration of the state space. We introduce Variational Combinatorial Sequential Monte Carlo (VCSMC), a powerful framework that establishes variational sequential search to learn distributions over intricate combinatorial structures. We then develop nested CSMC, an efficient proposal distribution for CSMC and prove that nested CSMC is an exact approximation to the (intractable) locally optimal proposal. We use nested CSMC to define a second objective, VNCSMC which yields tighter lower bounds than VCSMC. We show that VCSMC and VNCSMC are computationally efficient and explore higher probability spaces than existing methods on a range of tasks.

Recently, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has worked with other federal agencies to identify counties with increasing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence (hotspots) and offers support to local health departments to limit the spread of the disease. Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of hotspot events is of great importance to support policy decisions and prevent large-scale outbreaks. This paper presents a spatio-temporal Bayesian framework for early detection of COVID-19 hotspots (at the county level) in the United States. We assume both the observed number of cases and hotspots depend on a class of latent random variables, which encode the underlying spatio-temporal dynamics of the transmission of COVID-19. Such latent variables follow a zero-mean Gaussian process, whose covariance is specified by a non-stationary kernel function. The most salient feature of our kernel function is that deep neural networks are introduced to enhance the model's representative power while still enjoying the interpretability of the kernel. We derive a sparse model and fit the model using a variational learning strategy to circumvent the computational intractability for large data sets. Our model demonstrates better interpretability and superior hotspot-detection performance compared to other baseline methods.

Reparameterization (RP) and likelihood ratio (LR) gradient estimators are used to estimate gradients of expectations throughout machine learning and reinforcement learning; however, they are usually explained as simple mathematical tricks, with no insight into their nature. We use a first principles approach to explain that LR and RP are alternative methods of keeping track of the movement of probability mass, and the two are connected via the divergence theorem. Moreover, we show that the space of all possible estimators combining LR and RP can be completely parameterized by a flow field $u(x)$ and an importance sampling distribution $q(x)$. We prove that there cannot exist a single-sample estimator of this type outside our characterized space, thus, clarifying where we should be searching for better Monte Carlo gradient estimators.

The increased digitalisation and monitoring of the energy system opens up numerous opportunities % and solutions which can help to decarbonise the energy system. Applications on low voltage (LV), localised networks, such as community energy markets and smart storage will facilitate decarbonisation, but they will require advanced control and management. Reliable forecasting will be a necessary component of many of these systems to anticipate key features and uncertainties. Despite this urgent need, there has not yet been an extensive investigation into the current state-of-the-art of low voltage level forecasts, other than at the smart meter level. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the landscape, current approaches, core applications, challenges and recommendations. Another aim of this paper is to facilitate the continued improvement and advancement in this area. To this end, the paper also surveys some of the most relevant and promising trends. It establishes an open, community-driven list of the known LV level open datasets to encourage further research and development.

The graphical structure of Probabilistic Graphical The implication problem is the task of determining whether Models (PGMs) encodes the conditional independence a set of CIs termed antecedents logically entail another (CI) relations that hold in the modeled distribution. CI, called the consequent, and it has received considerable Graph algorithms, such as d-separation, attention from both the AI and Database communities use this structure to infer additional conditional [10, 12, 15, 16, 22, 23]. Known algorithms for deriving independencies, and to query whether a specific CIs from the topological structure of the graphical model CI holds in the distribution. The premise of all are, in fact, an instance of implication. Notably, the DAG current systems-of-inference for deriving CIs in structure of Bayesian Networks is generated based on a set PGMs, is that the set of CIs used for the construction of CIs termed the recursive basis [11], and the d-separation of the PGM hold exactly. In practice, algorithms algorithm is used to derive additional CIs, implied by this for extracting the structure of PGMs from set. The d-separation algorithm is a sound and complete data, discover approximate CIs that do not hold exactly method for deriving CIs in probability distributions represented in the distribution. In this paper, we ask how by DAGs [10, 11], and hence completely characterizes the error in this set propagates to the inferred CIs the CIs that hold in the distribution.

Bayesian neural networks and deep ensembles represent two modern paradigms of uncertainty quantification in deep learning. Yet these approaches struggle to scale mainly due to memory inefficiency issues, since they require parameter storage several times higher than their deterministic counterparts. To address this, we augment the weight matrix of each layer with a small number of inducing weights, thereby projecting the uncertainty quantification into such low dimensional spaces. We further extend Matheron's conditional Gaussian sampling rule to enable fast weight sampling, which enables our inference method to maintain reasonable run-time as compared with ensembles. Importantly, our approach achieves competitive performance to the state-of-the-art in prediction and uncertainty estimation tasks with fully connected neural networks and ResNets, while reducing the parameter size to $\leq 24.3\%$ of that of a $single$ neural network.

This paper proposes various new analysis techniques for Bayes networks in which conditional probability tables (CPTs) may contain symbolic variables. The key idea is to exploit scalable and powerful techniques for synthesis problems in parametric Markov chains. Our techniques are applicable to arbitrarily many, possibly dependent parameters that may occur in various CPTs. This lifts the severe restrictions on parameters, e.g., by restricting the number of parametrized CPTs to one or two, or by avoiding parameter dependencies between several CPTs, in existing works for parametric Bayes networks (pBNs). We describe how our techniques can be used for various pBN synthesis problems studied in the literature such as computing sensitivity functions (and values), simple and difference parameter tuning, ratio parameter tuning, and minimal change tuning. Experiments on several benchmarks show that our prototypical tool built on top of the probabilistic model checker Storm can handle several hundreds of parameters.

Conditional density estimation is the task of estimating the probability of an event, conditioned on some inputs. A neural network can be used to compute the output distribution explicitly. For such a task, there are many ways to represent a continuous-domain distribution using the output of a neural network, but each comes with its own limitations for what distributions it can accurately render. If the family of functions is too restrictive, it will not be appropriate for many datasets. In this paper, we demonstrate the benefits of modeling free-form distributions using deconvolution. It has the advantage of being flexible, but also takes advantage of the topological smoothness offered by the deconvolution layers. We compare our method to a number of other density-estimation approaches, and show that our Deconvolutional Density Network (DDN) outperforms the competing methods on many artificial and real tasks, without committing to a restrictive parametric model.