Deep learning is gaining increasing popularity for spatiotemporal forecasting. However, prior works have mostly focused on point estimates without quantifying the uncertainty of the predictions. In high stakes domains, being able to generate probabilistic forecasts with confidence intervals is critical to risk assessment and decision making. Hence, a systematic study of uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for spatiotemporal forecasting is missing in the community. In this paper, we describe two types of spatiotemporal forecasting problems: regular grid-based and graph-based. Then we analyze UQ methods from both the Bayesian and the frequentist point of view, casting in a unified framework via statistical decision theory. Through extensive experiments on real-world road network traffic, epidemics, and air quality forecasting tasks, we reveal the statistical and computational trade-offs for different UQ methods: Bayesian methods are typically more robust in mean prediction, while confidence levels obtained from frequentist methods provide more extensive coverage over data variations. Computationally, quantile regression type methods are cheaper for a single confidence interval but require re-training for different intervals. Sampling based methods generate samples that can form multiple confidence intervals, albeit at a higher computational cost.

The "cold posterior effect" (CPE) in Bayesian deep learning describes the uncomforting observation that the predictive performance of Bayesian neural networks can be significantly improved if the Bayes posterior is artificially sharpened using a temperature parameter T<1. The CPE is problematic in theory and practice and since the effect was identified many researchers have proposed hypotheses to explain the phenomenon. However, despite this intensive research effort the effect remains poorly understood. In this work we provide novel and nuanced evidence relevant to existing explanations for the cold posterior effect, disentangling three hypotheses: 1. The dataset curation hypothesis of Aitchison (2020): we show empirically that the CPE does not arise in a real curated data set but can be produced in a controlled experiment with varying curation strength. 2. The data augmentation hypothesis of Izmailov et al. (2021) and Fortuin et al. (2021): we show empirically that data augmentation is sufficient but not necessary for the CPE to be present. 3. The bad prior hypothesis of Wenzel et al. (2020): we use a simple experiment evaluating the relative importance of the prior and the likelihood, strongly linking the CPE to the prior. Our results demonstrate how the CPE can arise in isolation from synthetic curation, data augmentation, and bad priors. Cold posteriors observed "in the wild" are therefore unlikely to arise from a single simple cause; as a result, we do not expect a simple "fix" for cold posteriors.

In settings ranging from weather forecasts to political prognostications to financial projections, probability estimates of future binary outcomes often evolve over time. For example, the estimated likelihood of rain on a specific day changes by the hour as new information becomes available. Given a collection of such probability paths, we introduce a Bayesian framework -- which we call the Gaussian latent information martingale, or GLIM -- for modeling the structure of dynamic predictions over time. Suppose, for example, that the likelihood of rain in a week is 50%, and consider two hypothetical scenarios. In the first, one expects the forecast is equally likely to become either 25% or 75% tomorrow; in the second, one expects the forecast to stay constant for the next several days. A time-sensitive decision-maker might select a course of action immediately in the latter scenario, but may postpone their decision in the former, knowing that new information is imminent. We model these trajectories by assuming predictions update according to a latent process of information flow, which is inferred from historical data. In contrast to general methods for time series analysis, this approach preserves the martingale structure of probability paths and better quantifies future uncertainties around probability paths. We show that GLIM outperforms three popular baseline methods, producing better estimated posterior probability path distributions measured by three different metrics. By elucidating the dynamic structure of predictions over time, we hope to help individuals make more informed choices.

We develop a novel method for carrying out model selection for Bayesian autoencoders (BAEs) by means of prior hyper-parameter optimization. Inspired by the common practice of type-II maximum likelihood optimization and its equivalence to Kullback-Leibler divergence minimization, we propose to optimize the distributional sliced-Wasserstein distance (DSWD) between the output of the autoencoder and the empirical data distribution. The advantages of this formulation are that we can estimate the DSWD based on samples and handle high-dimensional problems. We carry out posterior estimation of the BAE parameters via stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and turn our BAE into a generative model by fitting a flexible Dirichlet mixture model in the latent space. Consequently, we obtain a powerful alternative to variational autoencoders, which are the preferred choice in modern applications of autoencoders for representation learning with uncertainty. We evaluate our approach qualitatively and quantitatively using a vast experimental campaign on a number of unsupervised learning tasks and show that, in small-data regimes where priors matter, our approach provides state-of-the-art results, outperforming multiple competitive baselines.

Safety in reinforcement learning has become increasingly important in recent years. Yet, existing solutions either fail to strictly avoid choosing unsafe actions, which may lead to catastrophic results in safety-critical systems, or fail to provide regret guarantees for settings where safety constraints need to be learned. In this paper, we address both problems by first modeling safety as an unknown linear cost function of states and actions, which must always fall below a certain threshold. We then present algorithms, termed SLUCB-QVI and RSLUCB-QVI, for episodic Markov decision processes (MDPs) with linear function approximation. We show that SLUCB-QVI and RSLUCB-QVI, while with \emph{no safety violation}, achieve a $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}\left(\kappa\sqrt{d^3H^3T}\right)$ regret, nearly matching that of state-of-the-art unsafe algorithms, where $H$ is the duration of each episode, $d$ is the dimension of the feature mapping, $\kappa$ is a constant characterizing the safety constraints, and $T$ is the total number of action plays. We further present numerical simulations that corroborate our theoretical findings.

Recent works have suggested that finite Bayesian neural networks may outperform their infinite cousins because finite networks can flexibly adapt their internal representations. However, our theoretical understanding of how the learned hidden layer representations of finite networks differ from the fixed representations of infinite networks remains incomplete. Perturbative finite-width corrections to the network prior and posterior have been studied, but the asymptotics of learned features have not been fully characterized. Here, we argue that the leading finite-width corrections to the average feature kernels for any Bayesian network with linear readout and quadratic cost have a largely universal form. We illustrate this explicitly for two classes of fully connected networks: deep linear networks and networks with a single nonlinear hidden layer. Our results begin to elucidate which features of data wide Bayesian neural networks learn to represent.

We consider the problem of learning structures and parameters of Continuous-time Bayesian Networks (CTBNs) from time-course data under minimal experimental resources. In practice, the cost of generating experimental data poses a bottleneck, especially in the natural and social sciences. A popular approach to overcome this is Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED). However, BOED becomes infeasible in high-dimensional settings, as it involves integration over all possible experimental outcomes. We propose a novel criterion for experimental design based on a variational approximation of the expected information gain. We show that for CTBNs, a semi-analytical expression for this criterion can be calculated for structure and parameter learning. By doing so, we can replace sampling over experimental outcomes by solving the CTBNs master-equation, for which scalable approximations exist. This alleviates the computational burden of sampling possible experimental outcomes in high-dimensions. We employ this framework in order to recommend interventional sequences. In this context, we extend the CTBN model to conditional CTBNs in order to incorporate interventions. We demonstrate the performance of our criterion on synthetic and real-world data.

Performing reliable Bayesian inference on a big data scale is becoming a keystone in the modern era of machine learning. A workhorse class of methods to achieve this task are Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and their design to handle distributed datasets has been the subject of many works. However, existing methods are not completely either reliable or computationally efficient. In this paper, we propose to fill this gap in the case where the dataset is partitioned and stored on computing nodes within a cluster under a master/slaves architecture. We derive a user-friendly centralised distributed MCMC algorithm with provable scaling in high-dimensional settings. We illustrate the relevance of the proposed methodology on both synthetic and real data experiments.

Herding is a technique to sequentially generate deterministic samples from a probability distribution. In this work, we propose a continuous herded Gibbs sampler, that combines kernel herding on continuous densities with Gibbs sampling. Our algorithm allows for deterministically sampling from high-dimensional multivariate probability densities, without directly sampling from the joint density. Experiments with Gaussian mixture densities indicate that the L2 error decreases similarly to kernel herding, while the computation time is significantly lower, i.e., linear in the number of dimensions.

Adoption of deep neural networks in fields such as economics or finance has been constrained by the lack of interpretability of model outcomes. This paper proposes a generative neural network architecture -- the parameter encoder neural network (PENN) -- capable of estimating local posterior distributions for the parameters of a regression model. The parameters fully explain predictions in terms of the inputs and permit visualization, interpretation and inference in the presence of complex heterogeneous effects and feature dependencies. The use of Bayesian inference techniques offers an intuitive mechanism to regularize local parameter estimates towards a stable solution, and to reduce noise-fitting in settings of limited data availability. The proposed neural network is particularly well-suited to applications in economics and finance, where parameter inference plays an important role. An application to an asset pricing problem demonstrates how the PENN can be used to explore nonlinear risk dynamics in financial markets, and to compare empirical nonlinear effects to behavior posited by financial theory.