Recent years have witnessed an upsurge of interest in employing flexible machine learning models for instrumental variable (IV) regression, but the development of uncertainty quantification methodology is still lacking. In this work we present a scalable quasi-Bayesian procedure for IV regression, building upon the recently developed kernelized IV models. Contrary to Bayesian modeling for IV, our approach does not require additional assumptions on the data generating process, and leads to a scalable approximate inference algorithm with time cost comparable to the corresponding point estimation methods. Our algorithm can be further extended to work with neural network models. We analyze the theoretical properties of the proposed quasi-posterior, and demonstrate through empirical evaluation the competitive performance of our method.

DN), thus, limiting their use to moderately sized data sets. To enable posterior inference in GPs on large-scale problems, Inspired by recent advances in the field of expertbased recent work (see e.g. Liu et al. [2020] for a detailed approximations of Gaussian processes (GPs), review) mainly resorts to global approximations to the posterior, we present an expert-based approach to large-scale e.g., using inducing points, or local approximations multi-output regression using single-output GP that aim to distribute the computation of the posterior distribution experts. Employing a deeply structured mixture onto local experts. Unfortunately, most of these of single-output GPs encoded via a probabilistic approaches only focus on single-output regression, i.e., the circuit allows us to capture correlations between dependent variable is univariate, and in the case of local multiple output dimensions accurately. By recursively approximations, do not easily extend to multi-output regression partitioning the covariate space and the output tasks, see Bruinsma et al. [2020] for a detailed space, posterior inference in our model reduces to discussion on recent techniques on multi-output GPs.

Imitation learning enables high-fidelity, vision-based learning of policies within rich, photorealistic environments. However, such techniques often rely on traditional discrete-time neural models and face difficulties in generalizing to domain shifts by failing to account for the causal relationships between the agent and the environment. In this paper, we propose a theoretical and experimental framework for learning causal representations using continuous-time neural networks, specifically over their discrete-time counterparts. We evaluate our method in the context of visual-control learning of drones over a series of complex tasks, ranging from short- and long-term navigation, to chasing static and dynamic objects through photorealistic environments. Our results demonstrate that causal continuous-time deep models can perform robust navigation tasks, where advanced recurrent models fail. These models learn complex causal control representations directly from raw visual inputs and scale to solve a variety of tasks using imitation learning.

Probabilistic numerics casts numerical tasks, such the numerical solution of differential equations, as inference problems to be solved. One approach is to model the unknown quantity of interest as a random variable, and to constrain this variable using data generated during the course of a traditional numerical method. However, data may be nonlinearly related to the quantity of interest, rendering the proper conditioning of random variables difficult and limiting the range of numerical tasks that can be addressed. Instead, this paper proposes to construct probabilistic numerical methods based only on the final output from a traditional method. A convergent sequence of approximations to the quantity of interest constitute a dataset, from which the limiting quantity of interest can be extrapolated, in a probabilistic analogue of Richardson's deferred approach to the limit. This black box approach (1) massively expands the range of tasks to which probabilistic numerics can be applied, (2) inherits the features and performance of state-of-the-art numerical methods, and (3) enables provably higher orders of convergence to be achieved. Applications are presented for nonlinear ordinary and partial differential equations, as well as for eigenvalue problems-a setting for which no probabilistic numerical methods have yet been developed.

Kernel selection plays a central role in determining the performance of Gaussian Process (GP) models, as the chosen kernel determines both the inductive biases and prior support of functions under the GP prior. This work addresses the challenge of constructing custom kernel functions for high-dimensional GP regression models. Drawing inspiration from recent progress in deep learning, we introduce a novel approach named KITT: Kernel Identification Through Transformers. KITT exploits a transformer-based architecture to generate kernel recommendations in under 0.1 seconds, which is several orders of magnitude faster than conventional kernel search algorithms. We train our model using synthetic data generated from priors over a vocabulary of known kernels. By exploiting the nature of the self-attention mechanism, KITT is able to process datasets with inputs of arbitrary dimension. We demonstrate that kernels chosen by KITT yield strong performance over a diverse collection of regression benchmarks.

Learning meaningful representations of data that can address challenges such as batch effect correction, data integration and counterfactual inference is a central problem in many domains including computational biology. Adopting a Conditional VAE framework, we identify the mathematical principle that unites these challenges: learning a representation that is marginally independent of a condition variable. We therefore propose the Contrastive Mixture of Posteriors (CoMP) method that uses a novel misalignment penalty to enforce this independence. This penalty is defined in terms of mixtures of the variational posteriors themselves, unlike prior work which uses external discrepancy measures such as MMD to ensure independence in latent space. We show that CoMP has attractive theoretical properties compared to previous approaches, especially when there is complex global structure in latent space. We further demonstrate state of the art performance on a number of real-world problems, including the challenging tasks of aligning human tumour samples with cancer cell-lines and performing counterfactual inference on single-cell RNA sequencing data. Incidentally, we find parallels with the fair representation learning literature, and demonstrate CoMP has competitive performance in learning fair yet expressive latent representations.

Designing provably efficient algorithms with general function approximation is an important open problem in reinforcement learning. Recently, Wang et al.~[2020c] establish a value-based algorithm with general function approximation that enjoys $\widetilde{O}(\mathrm{poly}(dH)\sqrt{K})$\footnote{Throughout the paper, we use $\widetilde{O}(\cdot)$ to suppress logarithm factors. } regret bound, where $d$ depends on the complexity of the function class, $H$ is the planning horizon, and $K$ is the total number of episodes. However, their algorithm requires $\Omega(K)$ computation time per round, rendering the algorithm inefficient for practical use. In this paper, by applying online sub-sampling techniques, we develop an algorithm that takes $\widetilde{O}(\mathrm{poly}(dH))$ computation time per round on average, and enjoys nearly the same regret bound. Furthermore, the algorithm achieves low switching cost, i.e., it changes the policy only $\widetilde{O}(\mathrm{poly}(dH))$ times during its execution, making it appealing to be implemented in real-life scenarios. Moreover, by using an upper-confidence based exploration-driven reward function, the algorithm provably explores the environment in the reward-free setting. In particular, after $\widetilde{O}(\mathrm{poly}(dH))/\epsilon^2$ rounds of exploration, the algorithm outputs an $\epsilon$-optimal policy for any given reward function.

A graph generative model defines a distribution over graphs. One type of generative model is constructed by autoregressive neural networks, which sequentially add nodes and edges to generate a graph. However, the likelihood of a graph under the autoregressive model is intractable, as there are numerous sequences leading to the given graph; this makes maximum likelihood estimation challenging. Instead, in this work we derive the exact joint probability over the graph and the node ordering of the sequential process. From the joint, we approximately marginalize out the node orderings and compute a lower bound on the log-likelihood using variational inference. We train graph generative models by maximizing this bound, without using the ad-hoc node orderings of previous methods. Our experiments show that the log-likelihood bound is significantly tighter than the bound of previous schemes. Moreover, the models fitted with the proposed algorithm can generate high-quality graphs that match the structures of target graphs not seen during training. We have made our code publicly available at \hyperref[https://github.com/tufts-ml/graph-generation-vi]{https://github.com/tufts-ml/graph-generation-vi}.

We propose a model-free reinforcement learning algorithm inspired by the popular randomized least squares value iteration (RLSVI) algorithm as well as the optimism principle. Unlike existing upper-confidence-bound (UCB) based approaches, which are often computationally intractable, our algorithm drives exploration by simply perturbing the training data with judiciously chosen i.i.d. scalar noises. To attain optimistic value function estimation without resorting to a UCB-style bonus, we introduce an optimistic reward sampling procedure. When the value functions can be represented by a function class $\mathcal{F}$, our algorithm achieves a worst-case regret bound of $\widetilde{O}(\mathrm{poly}(d_EH)\sqrt{T})$ where $T$ is the time elapsed, $H$ is the planning horizon and $d_E$ is the $\textit{eluder dimension}$ of $\mathcal{F}$. In the linear setting, our algorithm reduces to LSVI-PHE, a variant of RLSVI, that enjoys an $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{d^3H^3T})$ regret. We complement the theory with an empirical evaluation across known difficult exploration tasks.

We focus on the problem of efficient sampling and learning of probability densities by incorporating symmetries in probabilistic models. We first introduce Equivariant Stein Variational Gradient Descent algorithm -- an equivariant sampling method based on Stein's identity for sampling from densities with symmetries. Equivariant SVGD explicitly incorporates symmetry information in a density through equivariant kernels which makes the resultant sampler efficient both in terms of sample complexity and the quality of generated samples. Subsequently, we define equivariant energy based models to model invariant densities that are learned using contrastive divergence. By utilizing our equivariant SVGD for training equivariant EBMs, we propose new ways of improving and scaling up training of energy based models. We apply these equivariant energy models for modelling joint densities in regression and classification tasks for image datasets, many-body particle systems and molecular structure generation.