Uncertainty
Faculty Opinions Recommended Article: A Bayesian inference transcription factor activity model for the analysis of single-cell transcriptomes.
This Agreement shall begin on the date hereof. Certain parts of this website offer the opportunity for users to post opinions, information and material including without limitation academic papers and data ('Material') in areas of the website. FACULTY OPINIONS does not claim any ownership in the Material that you or any other user posts. FACULTY OPINIONS does not screen, edit, publish or review Material prior to its appearance on the website and is not responsible for it. Material does not reflect the views or opinions of FACULTY OPINIONS, its agents or affiliates.
Domain Adaptation for Autoencoder-Based End-to-End Communication Over Wireless Channels
Raghuram, Jayaram, Zeng, Yijing, Martí, Dolores García, Jha, Somesh, Banerjee, Suman, Widmer, Joerg, Ortiz, Rafael Ruiz
The problem of domain adaptation conventionally considers the setting where a source domain has plenty of labeled data, and a target domain (with a different data distribution) has plenty of unlabeled data but none or very limited labeled data. In this paper, we address the setting where the target domain has only limited labeled data from a distribution that is expected to change frequently. We first propose a fast and light-weight method for adapting a Gaussian mixture density network (MDN) using only a small set of target domain samples. This method is well-suited for the setting where the distribution of target data changes rapidly (e.g., a wireless channel), making it challenging to collect a large number of samples and retrain. We then apply the proposed MDN adaptation method to the problem of end-of-end learning of a wireless communication autoencoder. A communication autoencoder models the encoder, decoder, and the channel using neural networks, and learns them jointly to minimize the overall decoding error rate. However, the error rate of an autoencoder trained on a particular (source) channel distribution can degrade as the channel distribution changes frequently, not allowing enough time for data collection and retraining of the autoencoder to the target channel distribution. We propose a method for adapting the autoencoder without modifying the encoder and decoder neural networks, and adapting only the MDN model of the channel. The method utilizes feature transformations at the decoder to compensate for changes in the channel distribution, and effectively present to the decoder samples close to the source distribution. Experimental evaluation on simulated datasets and real mmWave wireless channels demonstrate that the proposed methods can quickly adapt the MDN model, and improve or maintain the error rate of the autoencoder under changing channel conditions.
A Random Matrix Perspective on Random Tensors
Goulart, José Henrique de Morais, Couillet, Romain, Comon, Pierre
Tensor models play an increasingly prominent role in many fields, notably in machine learning. In several applications of such models, such as community detection, topic modeling and Gaussian mixture learning, one must estimate a low-rank signal from a noisy tensor. Hence, understanding the fundamental limits and the attainable performance of estimators of that signal inevitably calls for the study of random tensors. Substantial progress has been achieved on this subject thanks to recent efforts, under the assumption that the tensor dimensions grow large. Yet, some of the most significant among these results--in particular, a precise characterization of the abrupt phase transition (in terms of signal-to-noise ratio) that governs the performance of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator of a symmetric rank-one model with Gaussian noise--were derived on the basis of statistical physics ideas, which are not easily accessible to non-experts. In this work, we develop a sharply distinct approach, relying instead on standard but powerful tools brought by years of advances in random matrix theory. The key idea is to study the spectra of random matrices arising from contractions of a given random tensor. We show how this gives access to spectral properties of the random tensor itself. In the specific case of a symmetric rank-one model with Gaussian noise, our technique yields a hitherto unknown characterization of the local maximum of the ML problem that is global above the phase transition threshold. This characterization is in terms of a fixed-point equation satisfied by a formula that had only been previously obtained via statistical physics methods. Moreover, our analysis sheds light on certain properties of the landscape of the ML problem in the large-dimensional setting. Our approach is versatile and can be extended to other models, such as asymmetric, non-Gaussian and higher-order ones.
A survey of Monte Carlo methods for noisy and costly densities with application to reinforcement learning
Llorente, F., Martino, L., Read, J., Delgado, D.
This survey gives an overview of Monte Carlo methodologies using surrogate models, for dealing with densities which are intractable, costly, and/or noisy. This type of problem can be found in numerous real-world scenarios, including stochastic optimization and reinforcement learning, where each evaluation of a density function may incur some computationally-expensive or even physical (real-world activity) cost, likely to give different results each time. The surrogate model does not incur this cost, but there are important trade-offs and considerations involved in the choice and design of such methodologies. We classify the different methodologies into three main classes and describe specific instances of algorithms under a unified notation. A modular scheme which encompasses the considered methods is also presented. A range of application scenarios is discussed, with special attention to the likelihood-free setting and reinforcement learning. Several numerical comparisons are also provided.
Bayesian analysis of the prevalence bias: learning and predicting from imbalanced data
Folgoc, Loic Le, Baltatzis, Vasileios, Alansary, Amir, Desai, Sujal, Devaraj, Anand, Ellis, Sam, Manzanera, Octavio E. Martinez, Kanavati, Fahdi, Nair, Arjun, Schnabel, Julia, Glocker, Ben
Datasets are rarely a realistic approximation of the target population. Say, prevalence is misrepresented, image quality is above clinical standards, etc. This mismatch is known as sampling bias. Sampling biases are a major hindrance for machine learning models. They cause significant gaps between model performance in the lab and in the real world. Our work is a solution to prevalence bias. Prevalence bias is the discrepancy between the prevalence of a pathology and its sampling rate in the training dataset, introduced upon collecting data or due to the practioner rebalancing the training batches. This paper lays the theoretical and computational framework for training models, and for prediction, in the presence of prevalence bias. Concretely a bias-corrected loss function, as well as bias-corrected predictive rules, are derived under the principles of Bayesian risk minimization. The loss exhibits a direct connection to the information gain. It offers a principled alternative to heuristic training losses and complements test-time procedures based on selecting an operating point from summary curves. It integrates seamlessly in the current paradigm of (deep) learning using stochastic backpropagation and naturally with Bayesian models.
A Uniformly Consistent Estimator of non-Gaussian Causal Effects Under the k-Triangle-Faithfulness Assumption
Kalisch and B\"{u}hlmann (2007) showed that for linear Gaussian models, under the Causal Markov Assumption, the Strong Causal Faithfulness Assumption, and the assumption of causal sufficiency, the PC algorithm is a uniformly consistent estimator of the Markov Equivalence Class of the true causal DAG for linear Gaussian models; it follows from this that for the identifiable causal effects in the Markov Equivalence Class, there are uniformly consistent estimators of causal effects as well. The $k$-Triangle-Faithfulness Assumption is a strictly weaker assumption that avoids some implausible implications of the Strong Causal Faithfulness Assumption and also allows for uniformly consistent estimates of Markov Equivalence Classes (in a weakened sense), and of identifiable causal effects. However, both of these assumptions are restricted to linear Gaussian models. We propose the Generalized $k$-Triangle Faithfulness, which can be applied to any smooth distribution. In addition, under the Generalized $k$-Triangle Faithfulness Assumption, we describe the Edge Estimation Algorithm that provides uniformly consistent estimates of causal effects in some cases (and otherwise outputs "can't tell"), and the \textit{Very Conservative }$SGS$ Algorithm that (in a slightly weaker sense) is a uniformly consistent estimator of the Markov equivalence class of the true DAG.
Towards General Function Approximation in Zero-Sum Markov Games
Huang, Baihe, Lee, Jason D., Wang, Zhaoran, Yang, Zhuoran
This paper considers two-player zero-sum finite-horizon Markov games with simultaneous moves. The study focuses on the challenging settings where the value function or the model is parameterized by general function classes. Provably efficient algorithms for both decoupled and {coordinated} settings are developed. In the {decoupled} setting where the agent controls a single player and plays against an arbitrary opponent, we propose a new model-free algorithm. The sample complexity is governed by the Minimax Eluder dimension -- a new dimension of the function class in Markov games. As a special case, this method improves the state-of-the-art algorithm by a $\sqrt{d}$ factor in the regret when the reward function and transition kernel are parameterized with $d$-dimensional linear features. In the {coordinated} setting where both players are controlled by the agent, we propose a model-based algorithm and a model-free algorithm. In the model-based algorithm, we prove that sample complexity can be bounded by a generalization of Witness rank to Markov games. The model-free algorithm enjoys a $\sqrt{K}$-regret upper bound where $K$ is the number of episodes. Our algorithms are based on new techniques of alternate optimism.
Tensor-Train Density Estimation
Novikov, Georgii S., Panov, Maxim E., Oseledets, Ivan V.
Estimation of probability density function from samples is one of the central problems in statistics and machine learning. Modern neural network-based models can learn high dimensional distributions but have problems with hyperparameter selection and are often prone to instabilities during training and inference. We propose a new efficient tensor train-based model for density estimation (TTDE). Such density parametrization allows exact sampling, calculation of cumulative and marginal density functions, and partition function. It also has very intuitive hyperparameters. We develop an efficient non-adversarial training procedure for TTDE based on the Riemannian optimization. Experimental results demonstrate the competitive performance of the proposed method in density estimation and sampling tasks, while TTDE significantly outperforms competitors in training speed.
Trusted-Maximizers Entropy Search for Efficient Bayesian Optimization
Nguyen, Quoc Phong, Wu, Zhaoxuan, Low, Bryan Kian Hsiang, Jaillet, Patrick
Information-based Bayesian optimization (BO) algorithms have achieved state-of-the-art performance in optimizing a black-box objective function. However, they usually require several approximations or simplifying assumptions (without clearly understanding their effects on the BO performance) and/or their generalization to batch BO is computationally unwieldy, especially with an increasing batch size. To alleviate these issues, this paper presents a novel trusted-maximizers entropy search (TES) acquisition function: It measures how much an input query contributes to the information gain on the maximizer over a finite set of trusted maximizers, i.e., inputs optimizing functions that are sampled from the Gaussian process posterior belief of the objective function. Evaluating TES requires either only a stochastic approximation with sampling or a deterministic approximation with expectation propagation, both of which are investigated and empirically evaluated using synthetic benchmark objective functions and real-world optimization problems, e.g., hyperparameter tuning of a convolutional neural network and synthesizing 'physically realizable' faces to fool a black-box face recognition system. Though TES can naturally be generalized to a batch variant with either approximation, the latter is amenable to be scaled to a much larger batch size in our experiments.
Neural Variational Gradient Descent
di Langosco, Lauro Langosco, Fortuin, Vincent, Strathmann, Heiko
Particle-based approximate Bayesian inference approaches such as Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) combine the flexibility and convergence guarantees of sampling methods with the computational benefits of variational inference. In practice, SVGD relies on the choice of an appropriate kernel function, which impacts its ability to model the target distribution -- a challenging problem with only heuristic solutions. We propose Neural Variational Gradient Descent (NVGD), which is based on parameterizing the witness function of the Stein discrepancy by a deep neural network whose parameters are learned in parallel to the inference, mitigating the necessity to make any kernel choices whatsoever. We empirically evaluate our method on popular synthetic inference problems, real-world Bayesian linear regression, and Bayesian neural network inference.