Researchers often face data fusion problems, where multiple data sources are available, each capturing a distinct subset of variables. While problem formulations typically take the data as given, in practice, data acquisition can be an ongoing process. In this paper, we aim to estimate any functional of a probabilistic model (e.g., a causal effect) as efficiently as possible, by deciding, at each time, which data source to query. We propose online moment selection (OMS), a framework in which structural assumptions are encoded as moment conditions. The optimal action at each step depends, in part, on the very moments that identify the functional of interest. Our algorithms balance exploration with choosing the best action as suggested by current estimates of the moments. We propose two selection strategies: (1) explore-then-commit (OMS-ETC) and (2) explore-then-greedy (OMS-ETG), proving that both achieve zero asymptotic regret as assessed by MSE. We instantiate our setup for average treatment effect estimation, where structural assumptions are given by a causal graph and data sources may include subsets of mediators, confounders, and instrumental variables.

This monograph develops a comprehensive statistical learning framework that is robust to (distributional) perturbations in the data using Distributionally Robust Optimization (DRO) under the Wasserstein metric. Beginning with fundamental properties of the Wasserstein metric and the DRO formulation, we explore duality to arrive at tractable formulations and develop finite-sample, as well as asymptotic, performance guarantees. We consider a series of learning problems, including (i) distributionally robust linear regression; (ii) distributionally robust regression with group structure in the predictors; (iii) distributionally robust multi-output regression and multiclass classification, (iv) optimal decision making that combines distributionally robust regression with nearest-neighbor estimation; (v) distributionally robust semi-supervised learning, and (vi) distributionally robust reinforcement learning. A tractable DRO relaxation for each problem is being derived, establishing a connection between robustness and regularization, and obtaining bounds on the prediction and estimation errors of the solution. Beyond theory, we include numerical experiments and case studies using synthetic and real data. The real data experiments are all associated with various health informatics problems, an application area which provided the initial impetus for this work.

Let us talk about Bayesian Network. Bayesian Network is a probablistic model represent a set of random variables and their conditional dependencies. This model can be represented using DAG (Directed Acrylic Graph) where nodes can be observable quantities, latent variables (not observable, inferred only) and not known parameters or hypothesis. DAG can help to understand the model in a easy manner. Edges in DAG represents conditional dependencies between nodes.

Optimizing the reliability and the robustness of a design is important but often unaffordable due to high sample requirements. Surrogate models based on statistical and machine learning methods are used to increase the sample efficiency. However, for higher dimensional or multi-modal systems, surrogate models may also require a large amount of samples to achieve good results. We propose a sequential sampling strategy for the surrogate based solution of multi-objective reliability based robust design optimization problems. Proposed local Latin hypercube refinement (LoLHR) strategy is model-agnostic and can be combined with any surrogate model because there is no free lunch but possibly a budget one. The proposed method is compared to stationary sampling as well as other proposed strategies from the literature. Gaussian process and support vector regression are both used as surrogate models. Empirical evidence is presented, showing that LoLHR achieves on average better results compared to other surrogate based strategies on the tested examples.

In generative adversarial imitation learning (GAIL), the agent aims to learn a policy from an expert demonstration so that its performance cannot be discriminated from the expert policy on a certain predefined reward set. In this paper, we study GAIL in both online and offline settings with linear function approximation, where both the transition and reward function are linear in the feature maps. Besides the expert demonstration, in the online setting the agent can interact with the environment, while in the offline setting the agent only accesses an additional dataset collected by a prior. For online GAIL, we propose an optimistic generative adversarial policy optimization algorithm (OGAP) and prove that OGAP achieves $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(H^2 d^{3/2}K^{1/2}+KH^{3/2}dN_1^{-1/2})$ regret. Here $N_1$ represents the number of trajectories of the expert demonstration, $d$ is the feature dimension, and $K$ is the number of episodes. For offline GAIL, we propose a pessimistic generative adversarial policy optimization algorithm (PGAP). For an arbitrary additional dataset, we obtain the optimality gap of PGAP, achieving the minimax lower bound in the utilization of the additional dataset. Assuming sufficient coverage on the additional dataset, we show that PGAP achieves $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(H^{2}dK^{-1/2} +H^2d^{3/2}N_2^{-1/2}+H^{3/2}dN_1^{-1/2} \ )$ optimality gap. Here $N_2$ represents the number of trajectories of the additional dataset with sufficient coverage.

We introduce a novel geometry-informed irreversible perturbation that accelerates convergence of the Langevin algorithm for Bayesian computation. It is well documented that there exist perturbations to the Langevin dynamics that preserve its invariant measure while accelerating its convergence. Irreversible perturbations and reversible perturbations (such as Riemannian manifold Langevin dynamics (RMLD)) have separately been shown to improve the performance of Langevin samplers. We consider these two perturbations simultaneously by presenting a novel form of irreversible perturbation for RMLD that is informed by the underlying geometry. Through numerical examples, we show that this new irreversible perturbation can improve performance of the estimator over reversible perturbations that do not take the geometry into account. Moreover we demonstrate that irreversible perturbations generally can be implemented in conjunction with the stochastic gradient version of the Langevin algorithm. Lastly, while continuous-time irreversible perturbations cannot impair the performance of a Langevin estimator, the situation can sometimes be more complicated when discretization is considered. To this end, we describe a discrete-time example in which irreversibility increases both the bias and variance of the resulting estimator.

Most data is automatically collected and only ever "seen" by algorithms. Yet, data compressors preserve perceptual fidelity rather than just the information needed by algorithms performing downstream tasks. In this paper, we characterize the bit-rate required to ensure high performance on all predictive tasks that are invariant under a set of transformations, such as data augmentations. Based on our theory, we design unsupervised objectives for training neural compressors. Using these objectives, we train a generic image compressor that achieves substantial rate savings (more than $1000\times$ on ImageNet) compared to JPEG on 8 datasets, without decreasing downstream classification performance.

The Sparsest Permutation (SP) algorithm is accurate but limited to about 9 variables in practice; the Greedy Sparest Permutation (GSP) algorithm is faster but less weak theoretically. A compromise can be given, the Best Order Score Search, which gives results as accurate as SP but for much larger and denser graphs. BOSS (Best Order Score Search) is more accurate for two reason: (a) It assumes the "brute faithfuness" assumption, which is weaker than faithfulness, and (b) it uses a different traversal of permutations than the depth first traversal used by GSP, obtained by taking each variable in turn and moving it to the position in the permutation that optimizes the model score. Results are given comparing BOSS to several related papers in the literature in terms of performance, for linear, Gaussian data. In all cases, with the proper parameter settings, accuracy of BOSS is lifted considerably with respect to competing approaches. In configurations tested, models with 60 variables are feasible with large samples out to about an average degree of 12 in reasonable time, with near-perfect accuracy, and sparse models with an average degree of 4 are feasible out to about 300 variables on a laptop, again with near-perfect accuracy. Mixed continuous discrete and all-discrete datasets were also tested. The mixed data analysis showed advantage for BOSS over GES more apparent at higher depths with the same score; the discrete data analysis showed a very small advantage for BOSS over GES with the same score, perhaps not enough to prefer it.

Constructing probability densities for inference in high-dimensional spectral data is often intractable. In this work, we use normalizing flows on structured spectral latent spaces to estimate such densities, enabling downstream inference tasks. In addition, we evaluate a method for uncertainty quantification when predicting unobserved state vectors associated with each spectrum. We demonstrate the capability of this approach on laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy data collected by the ChemCam instrument on the Mars rover Curiosity. Using our approach, we are able to generate realistic spectral samples and to accurately predict state vectors with associated well-calibrated uncertainties. We anticipate that this methodology will enable efficient probabilistic modeling of spectral data, leading to potential advances in several areas, including out-of-distribution detection and sensitivity analysis.

This paper describes the hierarchical infinite relational model (HIRM), a new probabilistic generative model for noisy, sparse, and heterogeneous relational data. Given a set of relations defined over a collection of domains, the model first infers multiple non-overlapping clusters of relations using a top-level Chinese restaurant process. Within each cluster of relations, a Dirichlet process mixture is then used to partition the domain entities and model the probability distribution of relation values. The HIRM generalizes the standard infinite relational model and can be used for a variety of data analysis tasks including dependence detection, clustering, and density estimation. We present new algorithms for fully Bayesian posterior inference via Gibbs sampling. We illustrate the efficacy of the method on a density estimation benchmark of twenty object-attribute datasets with up to 18 million cells and use it to discover relational structure in real-world datasets from politics and genomics.