We propose SLTD (`Sequential Learning-to-Defer') a framework for learning-to-defer pre-emptively to an expert in sequential decision-making settings. SLTD measures the likelihood of improving value of deferring now versus later based on the underlying uncertainty in dynamics. In particular, we focus on the non-stationarity in the dynamics to accurately learn the deferral policy. We demonstrate our pre-emptive deferral can identify regions where the current policy has a low probability of improving outcomes. SLTD outperforms existing non-sequential learning-to-defer baselines, whilst reducing overall uncertainty on multiple synthetic and real-world simulators with non-stationary dynamics. We further derive and decompose the propagated (long-term) uncertainty for interpretation by the domain expert to provide an indication of when the model's performance is reliable.

This paper introduces V-SysId, a novel method that enables simultaneous keypoint discovery, 3D system identification, and extrinsic camera calibration from an unlabeled video taken from a static camera, using only the family of equations of motion of the object of interest as weak supervision. V-SysId takes keypoint trajectory proposals and alternates between maximum likelihood parameter estimation and extrinsic camera calibration, before applying a suitable selection criterion to identify the track of interest. This is then used to train a keypoint tracking model using supervised learning. Results on a range of settings (robotics, physics, physiology) highlight the utility of this approach.

In causal studies, systems of variables are described by causal models [18, 22], which are composed of two elements: (i) the graphical representation of relationships between variables in a model, encoded in a directed acyclic graph, and (ii) the mathematical description of conditional probability distribution of each variable given its causal parents. When a causal model involves hidden (i.e., unobserved) variables, any characterization of the model verifiable by observations should only include observed variables. Therefore, one of the objectives of causal inference is to eliminate all hidden variables from inequalities and equalities that describe the model. In principle, this can be achieved using the Tarski-Seidenberg quantifier elimination method [12]. However, its complexity is such that only models with few variables can be solved using this technique, hence the reason for the many attempts to simplify the problem.

A number of numeric measures like rough inclusion functions (RIFs) are used in general rough sets and soft computing. But these are often intrusive by definition, and amount to making unjustified assumptions about the data. The contamination problem is also about recognizing the domains of discourses involved in this, specifying errors and reducing data intrusion relative to them. In this research, weak quasi rough inclusion functions (wqRIFs) are generalized to general granular operator spaces with scope for limiting contamination. New algebraic operations are defined over collections of such functions, and are studied by the present author. It is shown by her that the algebras formed by the generalized wqRIFs are ordered hemirings with additional operators. By contrast, the generalized rough inclusion functions lack similar structure. This potentially contributes to improving the selection (possibly automatic) of such functions, training methods, and reducing contamination (and data intrusion) in applications. The underlying framework and associated concepts are explained in some detail, as they are relatively new.

Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have been impactful on many problems and applications but suffer from unstable training. The Wasserstein GAN (WGAN) leverages the Wasserstein distance to avoid the caveats in the minmax two-player training of GANs but has other defects such as mode collapse and lack of metric to detect the convergence. We introduce a novel inferential Wasserstein GAN (iWGAN) model, which is a principled framework to fuse auto-encoders and WGANs. The iWGAN model jointly learns an encoder network and a generator network motivated by the iterative primal dual optimization process. The encoder network maps the observed samples to the latent space and the generator network maps the samples from the latent space to the data space. We establish the generalization error bound of the iWGAN to theoretically justify its performance. We further provide a rigorous probabilistic interpretation of our model under the framework of maximum likelihood estimation. The iWGAN, with a clear stopping criteria, has many advantages over other autoencoder GANs. The empirical experiments show that the iWGAN greatly mitigates the symptom of mode collapse, speeds up the convergence, and is able to provide a measurement of quality check for each individual sample. We illustrate the ability of the iWGAN by obtaining competitive and stable performances for benchmark datasets.

We study the matrix completion problem that leverages hierarchical similarity graphs as side information in the context of recommender systems. Under a hierarchical stochastic block model that well respects practically-relevant social graphs and a low-rank rating matrix model, we characterize the exact information-theoretic limit on the number of observed matrix entries (i.e., optimal sample complexity) by proving sharp upper and lower bounds on the sample complexity. In the achievability proof, we demonstrate that probability of error of the maximum likelihood estimator vanishes for sufficiently large number of users and items, if all sufficient conditions are satisfied. On the other hand, the converse (impossibility) proof is based on the genie-aided maximum likelihood estimator. Under each necessary condition, we present examples of a genie-aided estimator to prove that the probability of error does not vanish for sufficiently large number of users and items. One important consequence of this result is that exploiting the hierarchical structure of social graphs yields a substantial gain in sample complexity relative to the one that simply identifies different groups without resorting to the relational structure across them. More specifically, we analyze the optimal sample complexity and identify different regimes whose characteristics rely on quality metrics of side information of the hierarchical similarity graph. Finally, we present simulation results to corroborate our theoretical findings and show that the characterized information-theoretic limit can be asymptotically achieved. N recent years, personalized recommender systems have emerged in an extensive range of Web applications to predict the preferences of its users and provide them with new and relevant items based on the scarce data about the users and/or items [2]. There are two major paradigms of recommender systems: (i) content-based filtering systems; (ii) collaborative filtering systems. Content-based filtering approach exploits a profile of users' preferences and/or properties of the items to carry out the recommendation task.

Mixed-membership (MM) models such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) have been applied to microbiome compositional data to identify latent subcommunities of microbial species. However, microbiome compositional data, especially those collected from the gut, typically display substantial cross-sample heterogeneities in the subcommunity composition which current MM methods do not account for. To address this limitation, we incorporate the logistic-tree normal (LTN) model -- using the phylogenetic tree structure -- into the LDA model to form a new MM model. This model allows variation in the composition of each subcommunity around some ``centroid'' composition. Incorporation of auxiliary P\'olya-Gamma variables enables a computationally efficient collapsed blocked Gibbs sampler to carry out Bayesian inference under this model. We compare the new model and LDA and show that in the presence of large cross-sample heterogeneity, under the LDA model the resulting inference can be extremely sensitive to the specification of the total number of subcommunities as it does not account for cross-sample heterogeneity. As such, the popular strategy in other applications of MM models of overspecifying the number of subcommunities -- and hoping that some meaningful subcommunities will emerge among artificial ones -- can lead to highly misleading conclusions in the microbiome context. In contrast, by accounting for such heterogeneity, our MM model restores the robustness of the inference in the specification of the number of subcommunities and again allows meaningful subcommunities to be identified under this strategy.

Causal inference using observational text data is becoming increasingly popular in many research areas. This paper presents the Bayesian Topic Regression (BTR) model that uses both text and numerical information to model an outcome variable. It allows estimation of both discrete and continuous treatment effects. Furthermore, it allows for the inclusion of additional numerical confounding factors next to text data. To this end, we combine a supervised Bayesian topic model with a Bayesian regression framework and perform supervised representation learning for the text features jointly with the regression parameter training, respecting the Frisch-Waugh-Lovell theorem. Our paper makes two main contributions. First, we provide a regression framework that allows causal inference in settings when both text and numerical confounders are of relevance. We show with synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets that our joint approach recovers ground truth with lower bias than any benchmark model, when text and numerical features are correlated. Second, experiments on two real-world datasets demonstrate that a joint and supervised learning strategy also yields superior prediction results compared to strategies that estimate regression weights for text and non-text features separately, being even competitive with more complex deep neural networks.

Driving is an intuitive task that requires skills, constant alertness and vigilance for unexpected events. The driving task also requires long concentration spans focusing on the entire task for prolonged periods, and sophisticated negotiation skills with other road users, including wild animals. These requirements are particularly important when approaching intersections, overtaking, giving way, merging, turning and while adhering to the vast body of road rules. Modern motor vehicles now include an array of smart assistive and autonomous driving systems capable of subsuming some, most, or in limited cases, all of the driving task. The UK Department of Transport's response to the Safe Use of Automated Lane Keeping System consultation proposes that these systems are tested for compliance with relevant traffic rules. Building these smart automotive systems requires software developers with highly technical software engineering skills, and now a lawyer's in-depth knowledge of traffic legislation as well. These skills are required to ensure the systems are able to safely perform their tasks while being observant of the law. This paper presents an approach for deconstructing the complicated legalese of traffic law and representing its requirements and flow. The approach (de)constructs road rules in legal terminology and specifies them in structured English logic that is expressed as Boolean logic for automation and Lawmaps for visualisation. We demonstrate an example using these tools leading to the construction and validation of a Bayesian Network model. We strongly believe these tools to be approachable by programmers and the general public, and capable of use in developing Artificial Intelligence to underpin motor vehicle smart systems, and in validation to ensure these systems are considerate of the law when making decisions.

Out of the numerous hazards posing a threat to sustainable environmental conditions in the 21st century, only a few have a graver impact than air pollution. Its importance in determining the health and living standards in urban settings is only expected to increase with time. Various factors ranging from emissions from traffic and power plants, household emissions, natural causes are known to be primary causal agents or influencers behind rising air pollution levels. However, the lack of large scale data involving the major factors has hindered the research on the causes and relations governing the variability of the different air pollutants. Through this work, we introduce a large scale city-wise dataset for exploring the relationships among these agents over a long period of time. We analyze and explore the dataset to bring out inferences which we can derive by modeling the data. Also, we provide a set of benchmarks for the problem of estimating or forecasting pollutant levels with a set of diverse models and methodologies. Through our paper, we seek to provide a ground base for further research into this domain that will demand critical attention of ours in the near future.