We characterize homotopical equivalences between causal DAG models, exploiting the close connections between partially ordered set representations of DAGs (posets) and finite Alexandroff topologies. Alexandroff spaces yield a directional topological space: the topology is defined by a unique minimal basis defined by an open set for each variable x, specified as the intersection of all open sets containing x. Alexandroff spaces induce a (reflexive, transitive) preorder. Alexandroff spaces satisfying the Kolmogorov T0 separation criterion, where open sets distinguish variables, converts the preordering into a partial ordering. Our approach broadly is to construct a topological representation of posets from data, and then use the poset representation to build a conventional DAG causal model. We illustrate our framework by showing how it unifies disparate algorithms and case studies proposed previously. Topology plays two key roles in causal discovery. First, topological separability constraints on datasets have been used in several previous approaches to infer causal structure from observations and interventions. Second, a diverse range ofgraphical models used to represent causal structures can be represented in a unified way in terms of a topological representation of the induced poset structure. We show that the homotopy theory of Alexandroff spaces can be exploited to significantly efficiently reduce the number of possible DAG structures, reducing the search space by several orders of magnitude.

Causal effect estimation for dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) contributes to sequential decision making. However, censoring and time-dependent confounding under DTRs are challenging as the amount of observational data declines over time due to a reducing sample size but the feature dimension increases over time. Long-term follow-up compounds these challenges. Another challenge is the highly complex relationships between confounders, treatments, and outcomes, which causes the traditional and commonly used linear methods to fail. We combine outcome regression models with treatment models for high dimensional features using uncensored subjects that are small in sample size and we fit deep Bayesian models for outcome regression models to reveal the complex relationships between confounders, treatments, and outcomes. Also, the developed deep Bayesian models can model uncertainty and output the prediction variance which is essential for the safety-aware applications, such as self-driving cars and medical treatment design. The experimental results on medical simulations of HIV treatment show the ability of the proposed method to obtain stable and accurate dynamic causal effect estimation from observational data, especially with long-term follow-up. Our technique provides practical guidance for sequential decision making, and policy-making.

In recent years, machine learning (ML) algorithms have been deployed in safety-critical and high-stake decision-making, where the fairness of algorithms is of paramount importance. Fairness in ML centers on detecting bias towards certain demographic populations induced by an ML classifier and proposes algorithmic solutions to mitigate the bias with respect to different fairness definitions. To this end, several fairness verifiers have been proposed that compute the bias in the prediction of an ML classifier -- essentially beyond a finite dataset -- given the probability distribution of input features. In the context of verifying linear classifiers, existing fairness verifiers are limited by accuracy due to imprecise modelling of correlations among features and scalability due to restrictive formulations of the classifiers as SSAT or SMT formulas or by sampling. In this paper, we propose an efficient fairness verifier, called FVGM, that encodes the correlations among features as a Bayesian network. In contrast to existing verifiers, FVGM proposes a stochastic subset-sum based approach for verifying linear classifiers. Experimentally, we show that FVGM leads to an accurate and scalable assessment for more diverse families of fairness-enhancing algorithms, fairness attacks, and group/causal fairness metrics than the state-of-the-art. We also demonstrate that FVGM facilitates the computation of fairness influence functions as a stepping stone to detect the source of bias induced by subsets of features.

We investigate novel parameter estimation and goodness-of-fit (GOF) assessment methods for large-scale confirmatory item factor analysis (IFA) with many respondents, items, and latent factors. For parameter estimation, we extend Urban and Bauer's (2021) deep learning algorithm for exploratory IFA to the confirmatory setting by showing how to handle user-defined constraints on loadings and factor correlations. For GOF assessment, we explore new simulation-based tests and indices. In particular, we consider extensions of the classifier two-sample test (C2ST), a method that tests whether a machine learning classifier can distinguish between observed data and synthetic data sampled from a fitted IFA model. The C2ST provides a flexible framework that integrates overall model fit, piece-wise fit, and person fit. Proposed extensions include a C2ST-based test of approximate fit in which the user specifies what percentage of observed data can be distinguished from synthetic data as well as a C2ST-based relative fit index that is similar in spirit to the relative fit indices used in structural equation modeling. Via simulation studies, we first show that the confirmatory extension of Urban and Bauer's (2021) algorithm produces more accurate parameter estimates as the sample size increases and obtains comparable estimates to a state-of-the-art confirmatory IFA estimation procedure in less time. We next show that the C2ST-based test of approximate fit controls the empirical type I error rate and detects when the number of latent factors is misspecified. Finally, we empirically investigate how the sampling distribution of the C2ST-based relative fit index depends on the sample size.

Natural language inference (NLI) aims to determine the logical relationship between two sentences among the target labels Entailment, Contradiction, and Neutral. In recent years, deep learning models have become a prevailing approach to NLI, but they lack interpretability and explainability. In this work, we address the explainability for NLI by weakly supervised logical reasoning, and propose an Explainable Phrasal Reasoning (EPR) approach. Our model first detects phrases as the semantic unit and aligns corresponding phrases. Then, the model predicts the NLI label for the aligned phrases, and induces the sentence label by fuzzy logic formulas. Our EPR is almost everywhere differentiable and thus the system can be trained end-to-end in a weakly supervised manner. We annotated a corpus and developed a set of metrics to evaluate phrasal reasoning. Results show that our EPR yields much more meaningful explanations in terms of F scores than previous studies. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to develop a weakly supervised phrasal reasoning model for the NLI task.

Intelligent robots are redefining a multitude of critical domains but are still far from being fully capable of assisting human peers in day-to-day tasks. An important requirement of collaboration is for each teammate to maintain and respect an understanding of the others' expectations of itself. Lack of which may lead to serious issues such as loose coordination between teammates, reduced situation awareness, and ultimately teaming failures. Hence, it is important for robots to behave explicably by meeting the human's expectations. One of the challenges here is that the expectations of the human are often hidden and can change dynamically as the human interacts with the robot. However, existing approaches to generating explicable plans often assume that the human's expectations are known and static. In this paper, we propose the idea of active explicable planning to relax this assumption. We apply a Bayesian approach to model and predict dynamic human belief and expectations to make explicable planning more anticipatory. We hypothesize that active explicable plans can be more efficient and explicable at the same time, when compared to explicable plans generated by the existing methods. In our experimental evaluation, we verify that our approach generates more efficient explicable plans while successfully capturing the dynamic belief change of the human teammate.

Data augmentation (DA) algorithms are widely used for Bayesian inference due to their simplicity. In massive data settings, however, DA algorithms are prohibitively slow because they pass through the full data in any iteration, imposing serious restrictions on their usage despite the advantages. Addressing this problem, we develop a framework for extending any DA that exploits asynchronous and distributed computing. The extended DA algorithm is indexed by a parameter $r \in (0, 1)$ and is called Asynchronous and Distributed (AD) DA with the original DA as its parent. Any ADDA starts by dividing the full data into $k$ smaller disjoint subsets and storing them on $k$ processes, which could be machines or processors. Every iteration of ADDA augments only an $r$-fraction of the $k$ data subsets with some positive probability and leaves the remaining $(1-r)$-fraction of the augmented data unchanged. The parameter draws are obtained using the $r$-fraction of new and $(1-r)$-fraction of old augmented data. For many choices of $k$ and $r$, the fractional updates of ADDA lead to a significant speed-up over the parent DA in massive data settings, and it reduces to the distributed version of its parent DA when $r=1$. We show that the ADDA Markov chain is Harris ergodic with the desired stationary distribution under mild conditions on the parent DA algorithm. We demonstrate the numerical advantages of the ADDA in three representative examples corresponding to different kinds of massive data settings encountered in applications. In all these examples, our DA generalization is significantly faster than its parent DA algorithm for all the choices of $k$ and $r$. We also establish geometric ergodicity of the ADDA Markov chain for all three examples, which in turn yields asymptotically valid standard errors for estimates of desired posterior quantities.

There is a strong link between the general concept of intelligence and the ability to collect and use information. The theory of Bayes-adaptive exploration offers an attractive optimality framework for training machines to perform complex information gathering tasks. However, the computational complexity of the resulting optimal control problem has limited the diffusion of the theory to mainstream deep AI research. In this paper we exploit the inherent mathematical structure of Bayes-adaptive problems in order to dramatically simplify the problem by making the reward structure denser while simultaneously decoupling the learning of exploitation and exploration policies. The key to this simplification comes from the novel concept of cross-value (i.e. the value of being in an environment while acting optimally according to another), which we use to quantify the value of currently available information. This results in a new denser reward structure that "cashes in" all future rewards that can be predicted from the current information state. In a set of experiments we show that the approach makes it possible to learn challenging information gathering tasks without the use of shaping and heuristic bonuses in situations where the standard RL algorithms fail.

The path-specific Another commonly used method for these problems is bottleneck on a path between a source and a target node in a Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) (Auer 2002), which utilizes network is defined as the edge with a maximal cost or weight optimism to balance exploration and exploitation. UCB according to some criterion such as transfer time, load, commute has been adapted to combinatorial settings (Chen, Wang, and time, distance, etc. Then, the goal of bottleneck identification Yuan 2013), and also exists in Bayesian variants (Kaufmann, and avoidance is to find a path whose bottleneck is Cappé, and Garivier 2012). Recently, a variant of UCB has minimal. Thus, one may model bottleneck identification as been studied for bottleneck avoidance problems in a combinatorial the problem of computing the minimax edge over the given pure exploration setting (Du, Kuroki, and Chen network/graph, to obtain an edge with a minimal largest gap 2021). They consider a different problem setting and method between the source and target nodes. Equivalently, it can be than ours, though their bottleneck reward function is similar formulated as a widest path problem or maximum capacity to the one we use in our approximation method.

In this article, we will discuss the mathematical intuition behind Naive Bayes Classifiers, and we'll also see how to implement this on Python. This model is easy to build and is mostly used for large datasets. It is a probabilistic machine learning model that is used for classification problems. The core of the classifier depends on the Bayes theorem with an assumption of independence among predictors. That means changing the value of a feature doesn't change the value of another feature.