Probabilistic numerical solvers for ordinary differential equations compute posterior distributions over the solution of an initial value problem via Bayesian inference. In this paper, we leverage their probabilistic formulation to seamlessly include additional information as general likelihood terms. We show that second-order differential equations should be directly provided to the solver, instead of transforming the problem to first order. Additionally, by including higher-order information or physical conservation laws in the model, solutions become more accurate and more physically meaningful. Lastly, we demonstrate the utility of flexible information operators by solving differential-algebraic equations. In conclusion, the probabilistic formulation of numerical solvers offers a flexible way to incorporate various types of information, thus improving the resulting solutions.

We propose Predictive Permutation Feature Selection (PPFS), a novel wrapper-based feature selection method based on the concept of Markov Blanket (MB). Unlike previous MB methods, PPFS is a universal feature selection technique as it can work for both classification as well as regression tasks on datasets containing categorical and/or continuous features. We propose Predictive Permutation Independence (PPI), a new Conditional Independence (CI) test, which enables PPFS to be categorised as a wrapper feature selection method. This is in contrast to current filter based MB feature selection techniques that are unable to harness the advancements in supervised algorithms such as Gradient Boosting Machines (GBM). The PPI test is based on the knockoff framework and utilizes supervised algorithms to measure the association between an individual or a set of features and the target variable. We also propose a novel MB aggregation step that addresses the issue of sample inefficiency. Empirical evaluations and comparisons on a large number of datasets demonstrate that PPFS outperforms state-of-the-art Markov blanket discovery algorithms as well as, well-known wrapper methods. We also provide a sketch of the proof of correctness of our method. Implementation of this work is available at \url{https://github.com/atif-hassan/PyImpetus}

We model here an epistemic bias we call \textit{interpretive blindness} (IB). IB is a special problem for learning from testimony, in which one acquires information only from text or conversation. We show that IB follows from a co-dependence between background beliefs and interpretation in a Bayesian setting and the nature of contemporary testimony. We argue that a particular characteristic contemporary testimony, \textit{argumentative completeness}, can preclude learning in hierarchical Bayesian settings, even in the presence of constraints that are designed to promote good epistemic practices.

In this paper we propose efficient methods for elicitation of complexly structured preferences and utilize these in problems of decision making under (severe) uncertainty. Based on the general framework introduced in Jansen, Schollmeyer and Augustin (2018, Int. J. Approx. Reason), we now design elicitation procedures and algorithms that enable decision makers to reveal their underlying preference system (i.e. two relations, one encoding the ordinal, the other the cardinal part of the preferences) while having to answer as few as possible simple ranking questions. Here, two different approaches are followed. The first approach directly utilizes the collected ranking data for obtaining the ordinal part of the preferences, while their cardinal part is constructed implicitly by measuring meta data on the decision maker's consideration times. In contrast, the second approach explicitly elicits also the cardinal part of the decision maker's preference system, however, only an approximate version of it. This approximation is obtained by additionally collecting labels of preference strength during the elicitation procedure. For both approaches, we give conditions under which they produce the decision maker's true preference system and investigate how their efficiency can be improved. For the latter purpose, besides data-free approaches, we also discuss ways for effectively guiding the elicitation procedure if data from previous elicitation rounds is available. Finally, we demonstrate how the proposed elicitation methods can be utilized in problems of decision under (severe) uncertainty. Precisely, we show that under certain conditions optimal decisions can be found without fully specifying the preference system.

Autonomous robots can benefit greatly from human-provided semantic characterizations of uncertain task environments and states. However, the development of integrated strategies which let robots model, communicate, and act on such soft data remains challenging. Here, a framework is presented for active semantic sensing and planning in human-robot teams which addresses these gaps by formally combining the benefits of online sampling-based POMDP policies, multi-modal semantic interaction, and Bayesian data fusion. This approach lets humans opportunistically impose model structure and extend the range of semantic soft data in uncertain environments by sketching and labeling arbitrary landmarks across the environment. Dynamic updating of the environment while searching for a mobile target allows robotic agents to actively query humans for novel and relevant semantic data, thereby improving beliefs of unknown environments and target states for improved online planning. Target search simulations show significant improvements in time and belief state estimates required for interception versus conventional planning based solely on robotic sensing. Human subject studies demonstrate a average doubling in dynamic target capture rate compared to the lone robot case, employing reasoning over a range of user characteristics and interaction modalities. Video of interaction can be found at https://youtu.be/Eh-82ZJ1o4I.

Probabilistic programming is emerging as a popular and effective means of probabilistic modeling and an alternative to probabilistic graphical models. Probabilistic programs provide greater expressivity and flexibility in modeling probabilistic systems than graphical models, but this flexibility comes at a cost: there remains a significant disparity in performance between specialized Bayesian network solvers and probabilistic program inference algorithms. In this work we present a program analysis and associated optimization, flip-hoisting, that collapses repetitious parameters in discrete probabilistic programs to improve inference performance. flip-hoisting generalizes parameter sharing - a well-known important optimization from discrete graphical models - to probabilistic programs. We implement flip-hoisting in an existing probabilistic programming language and show empirically that it significantly improves inference performance, narrowing the gap between the performances of probabilistic programs and probabilistic graphical models.

Lifted inference allows to perform inference in polynomial time w.r.t. domain sizes. For a lifted algorithm, completeness investigates model classes for which the algorithm is guaranteed to compute a lifted solution. We contribute, to the best of our knowledge, the first completeness and complexity analysis for a temporal lifted algorithm, the so-called lifted dynamic junction tree algorithm (LDJT). To treat time as a first class citizen, LDJT introduces some constraints. Given these constraints, we analyse the classes of liftable models. Further, we show that LDJT has many advantages from a complexity point of view compared to a propositional temporal inference algorithm w.r.t. domain sizes. Therefore, LDJT advances the number of models for which inference tasks can be solved in reasonable time not only from a practically point of view, but also from a theoretical point of view.

Graphs from complex systems often share a partial underlying structure across domains while retaining individual features. Thus, identifying common structures can shed light on the underlying signal, for instance, when applied to scientific discoveries or clinical diagnoses. Furthermore, growing evidence shows that the shared structure across domains boosts the estimation power of graphs, particularly for high-dimensional data. However, building a joint estimator to extract the common structure may be more complicated than it seems, most often due to data heterogeneity across sources. This manuscript surveys recent work on statistical inference of joint Gaussian graphical models, identifying model structures that fit various data generation processes. Simulations under different data generation processes are implemented with detailed discussions on the choice of models.

Data-efficient learning algorithms are essential in many practical applications for which data collection and labeling is expensive or infeasible, e.g., for autonomous cars. To address this problem, meta-learning infers an inductive bias from a set of meta-training tasks in order to learn new, but related, task using a small number of samples. Most studies assume the meta-learner to have access to labeled data sets from a large number of tasks. In practice, one may have available only unlabeled data sets from the tasks, requiring a costly labeling procedure to be carried out before use in standard meta-learning schemes. To decrease the number of labeling requests for meta-training tasks, this paper introduces an information-theoretic active task selection mechanism which quantifies the epistemic uncertainty via disagreements among the predictions obtained under different inductive biases. We detail an instantiation for nonparametric methods based on Gaussian Process Regression, and report its empirical performance results that compare favourably against existing heuristic acquisition mechanisms.

To achieve sample efficiency in reinforcement learning (RL), it necessitates efficiently exploring the underlying environment. Under the offline setting, addressing the exploration challenge lies in collecting an offline dataset with sufficient coverage. Motivated by such a challenge, we study the reward-free RL problem, where an agent aims to thoroughly explore the environment without any pre-specified reward function. Then, given any extrinsic reward, the agent computes the policy via a planning algorithm with offline data collected in the exploration phase. Moreover, we tackle this problem under the context of function approximation, leveraging powerful function approximators. Specifically, we propose to explore via an optimistic variant of the value-iteration algorithm incorporating kernel and neural function approximations, where we adopt the associated exploration bonus as the exploration reward. Moreover, we design exploration and planning algorithms for both single-agent MDPs and zero-sum Markov games and prove that our methods can achieve $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(1 /\varepsilon^2)$ sample complexity for generating a $\varepsilon$-suboptimal policy or $\varepsilon$-approximate Nash equilibrium when given an arbitrary extrinsic reward. To the best of our knowledge, we establish the first provably efficient reward-free RL algorithm with kernel and neural function approximators.