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 Uncertainty


A non-graphical representation of conditional independence via the neighbourhood lattice

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce and study the neighbourhood lattice decomposition of a distribution, which is a compact, non-graphical representation of conditional independence that is valid in the absence of a faithful graphical representation. The idea is to view the set of neighbourhoods of a variable as a subset lattice, and partition this lattice into convex sublattices, each of which directly encodes a collection of conditional independence relations. We show that this decomposition exists in any compositional graphoid and can be computed efficiently and consistently in high-dimensions. {In particular, this gives a way to encode all of independence relations implied by a distribution that satisfies the composition axiom, which is strictly weaker than the faithfulness assumption that is typically assumed by graphical approaches.} We also discuss various special cases such as graphical models and projection lattices, each of which has intuitive interpretations. Along the way, we see how this problem is closely related to neighbourhood regression, which has been extensively studied in the context of graphical models and structural equations.


Variational Bayes Deep Operator Network: A data-driven Bayesian solver for parametric differential equations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Neural network based data-driven operator learning schemes have shown tremendous potential in computational mechanics. DeepONet is one such neural network architecture which has gained widespread appreciation owing to its excellent prediction capabilities. Having said that, being set in a deterministic framework exposes DeepONet architecture to the risk of overfitting, poor generalization and in its unaltered form, it is incapable of quantifying the uncertainties associated with its predictions. We propose in this paper, a Variational Bayes DeepONet (VB-DeepONet) for operator learning, which can alleviate these limitations of DeepONet architecture to a great extent and give user additional information regarding the associated uncertainty at the prediction stage. The key idea behind neural networks set in Bayesian framework is that, the weights and bias of the neural network are treated as probability distributions instead of point estimates and, Bayesian inference is used to update their prior distribution. Now, to manage the computational cost associated with approximating the posterior distribution, the proposed VB-DeepONet uses \textit{variational inference}. Unlike Markov Chain Monte Carlo schemes, variational inference has the capacity to take into account high dimensional posterior distributions while keeping the associated computational cost low. Different examples covering mechanics problems like diffusion reaction, gravity pendulum, advection diffusion have been shown to illustrate the performance of the proposed VB-DeepONet and comparisons have also been drawn against DeepONet set in deterministic framework.


Good Old Iris

#artificialintelligence

Originally published on Towards AI the World's Leading AI and Technology News and Media Company. If you are building an AI-related product or service, we invite you to consider becoming an AI sponsor. At Towards AI, we help scale AI and technology startups. Let us help you unleash your technology to the masses. The iris dataset must be the most used dataset ever.


Simple Kinesthetic Haptics for Object Recognition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Object recognition is an essential capability when performing various tasks. Humans naturally use either or both visual and tactile perception to extract object class and properties. Typical approaches for robots, however, require complex visual systems or multiple high-density tactile sensors which can be highly expensive. In addition, they usually require actual collection of a large dataset from real objects through direct interaction. In this paper, we propose a kinesthetic-based object recognition method that can be performed with any multi-fingered robotic hand in which the kinematics is known. The method does not require tactile sensors and is based on observing grasps of the objects. We utilize a unique and frame invariant parameterization of grasps to learn instances of object shapes. To train a classifier, training data is generated rapidly and solely in a computational process without interaction with real objects. We then propose and compare between two iterative algorithms that can integrate any trained classifier. The classifiers and algorithms are independent of any particular robot hand and, therefore, can be exerted on various ones. We show in experiments, that with few grasps, the algorithms acquire accurate classification. Furthermore, we show that the object recognition approach is scalable to objects of various sizes. Similarly, a global classifier is trained to identify general geometries (e.g., an ellipsoid or a box) rather than particular ones and demonstrated on a large set of objects. Full scale experiments and analysis are provided to show the performance of the method.


On the safe use of prior densities for Bayesian model selection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The application of Bayesian inference for the purpose of model selection is very popular nowadays. In this framework, models are compared through their marginal likelihoods, or their quotients, called Bayes factors. However, marginal likelihoods depends on the prior choice. For model selection, even diffuse priors can be actually very informative, unlike for the parameter estimation problem. Furthermore, when the prior is improper, the marginal likelihood of the corresponding model is undetermined. In this work, we discuss the issue of prior sensitivity of the marginal likelihood and its role in model selection. We also comment on the use of uninformative priors, which are very common choices in practice. Several practical suggestions are discussed and many possible solutions, proposed in the literature, to design objective priors for model selection are described. Some of them also allow the use of improper priors. The connection between the marginal likelihood approach and the well-known information criteria is also presented. We describe the main issues and possible solutions by illustrative numerical examples, providing also some related code. One of them involving a real-world application on exoplanet detection.


Bayesian Inference of Stochastic Dynamical Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Network inference has been extensively studied in several fields, such as systems biology and social sciences. Learning network topology and internal dynamics is essential to understand mechanisms of complex systems. In particular, sparse topologies and stable dynamics are fundamental features of many real-world continuous-time (CT) networks. Given that usually only a partial set of nodes are able to observe, in this paper, we consider linear CT systems to depict networks since they can model unmeasured nodes via transfer functions. Additionally, measurements tend to be noisy and with low and varying sampling frequencies. For this reason, we consider CT models since discrete-time approximations often require fine-grained measurements and uniform sampling steps. The developed method applies dynamical structure functions (DSFs) derived from linear stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to describe networks of measured nodes. A numerical sampling method, preconditioned Crank-Nicolson (pCN), is used to refine coarse-grained trajectories to improve inference accuracy. The convergence property of the developed method is robust to the dimension of data sources. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the developed method outperforms state-of-the-art methods including group sparse Bayesian learning (GSBL), BINGO, kernel-based methods, dynGENIE3, GENIE3, and ARNI. The simulations include random and ring networks, and a synthetic biological network. These are challenging networks, suggesting that the developed method can be applied under a wide range of contexts, such as gene regulatory networks, social networks, and communication systems.


Log-concave density estimation in undirected graphical models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the problem of maximum likelihood estimation of densities that are log-concave and lie in the graphical model corresponding to a given undirected graph $G$. We show that the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) is the product of the exponentials of several tent functions, one for each maximal clique of $G$. While the set of log-concave densities in a graphical model is infinite-dimensional, our results imply that the MLE can be found by solving a finite-dimensional convex optimization problem. We provide an implementation and a few examples. Furthermore, we show that the MLE exists and is unique with probability 1 as long as the number of sample points is larger than the size of the largest clique of $G$ when $G$ is chordal. We show that the MLE is consistent when the graph $G$ is a disjoint union of cliques. Finally, we discuss the conditions under which a log-concave density in the graphical model of $G$ has a log-concave factorization according to $G$.


Benefits of Overparameterized Convolutional Residual Networks: Function Approximation under Smoothness Constraint

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Overparameterized neural networks enjoy great representation power on complex data, and more importantly yield sufficiently smooth output, which is crucial to their generalization and robustness. Most existing function approximation theories suggest that with sufficiently many parameters, neural networks can well approximate certain classes of functions in terms of the function value. The neural network themselves, however, can be highly nonsmooth. To bridge this gap, we take convolutional residual networks (ConvResNets) as an example, and prove that large ConvResNets can not only approximate a target function in terms of function value, but also exhibit sufficient first-order smoothness. Moreover, we extend our theory to approximating functions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our theory partially justifies the benefits of using deep and wide networks in practice. Numerical experiments on adversarial robust image classification are provided to support our theory.


Learning Multitask Gaussian Bayesian Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Major depressive disorder (MDD) requires study of brain functional connectivity alterations for patients, which can be uncovered by resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) data. We consider the problem of identifying alterations of brain functional connectivity for a single MDD patient. This is particularly difficult since the amount of data collected during an fMRI scan is too limited to provide sufficient information for individual analysis. Additionally, rs-fMRI data usually has the characteristics of incompleteness, sparsity, variability, high dimensionality and high noise. To address these problems, we proposed a multitask Gaussian Bayesian network (MTGBN) framework capable for identifying individual disease-induced alterations for MDD patients. We assume that such disease-induced alterations show some degrees of similarity with the tool to learn such network structures from observations to understanding of how system are structured jointly from related tasks. First, we treat each patient in a class of observation as a task and then learn the Gaussian Bayesian networks (GBNs) of this data class by learning from all tasks that share a default covariance matrix that encodes prior knowledge. This setting can help us to learn more information from limited data. Next, we derive a closed-form formula of the complete likelihood function and use the Monte-Carlo Expectation-Maximization(MCEM) algorithm to search for the approximately best Bayesian network structures efficiently. Finally, we assess the performance of our methods with simulated and real-world rs-fMRI data.


Joint Manifold Learning and Density Estimation Using Normalizing Flows

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Based on the manifold hypothesis, real-world data often lie on a low-dimensional manifold, while normalizing flows as a likelihood-based generative model are incapable of finding this manifold due to their structural constraints. So, one interesting question arises: $\textit{"Can we find sub-manifold(s) of data in normalizing flows and estimate the density of the data on the sub-manifold(s)?"}$. In this paper, we introduce two approaches, namely per-pixel penalized log-likelihood and hierarchical training, to answer the mentioned question. We propose a single-step method for joint manifold learning and density estimation by disentangling the transformed space obtained by normalizing flows to manifold and off-manifold parts. This is done by a per-pixel penalized likelihood function for learning a sub-manifold of the data. Normalizing flows assume the transformed data is Gaussianizationed, but this imposed assumption is not necessarily true, especially in high dimensions. To tackle this problem, a hierarchical training approach is employed to improve the density estimation on the sub-manifold. The results validate the superiority of the proposed methods in simultaneous manifold learning and density estimation using normalizing flows in terms of generated image quality and likelihood.