Network inference has been extensively studied in several fields, such as systems biology and social sciences. Learning network topology and internal dynamics is essential to understand mechanisms of complex systems. In particular, sparse topologies and stable dynamics are fundamental features of many real-world continuous-time (CT) networks. Given that usually only a partial set of nodes are able to observe, in this paper, we consider linear CT systems to depict networks since they can model unmeasured nodes via transfer functions. Additionally, measurements tend to be noisy and with low and varying sampling frequencies. For this reason, we consider CT models since discrete-time approximations often require fine-grained measurements and uniform sampling steps. The developed method applies dynamical structure functions (DSFs) derived from linear stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to describe networks of measured nodes. A numerical sampling method, preconditioned Crank-Nicolson (pCN), is used to refine coarse-grained trajectories to improve inference accuracy. The convergence property of the developed method is robust to the dimension of data sources. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the developed method outperforms state-of-the-art methods including group sparse Bayesian learning (GSBL), BINGO, kernel-based methods, dynGENIE3, GENIE3, and ARNI. The simulations include random and ring networks, and a synthetic biological network. These are challenging networks, suggesting that the developed method can be applied under a wide range of contexts, such as gene regulatory networks, social networks, and communication systems.

We study the problem of maximum likelihood estimation of densities that are log-concave and lie in the graphical model corresponding to a given undirected graph $G$. We show that the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) is the product of the exponentials of several tent functions, one for each maximal clique of $G$. While the set of log-concave densities in a graphical model is infinite-dimensional, our results imply that the MLE can be found by solving a finite-dimensional convex optimization problem. We provide an implementation and a few examples. Furthermore, we show that the MLE exists and is unique with probability 1 as long as the number of sample points is larger than the size of the largest clique of $G$ when $G$ is chordal. We show that the MLE is consistent when the graph $G$ is a disjoint union of cliques. Finally, we discuss the conditions under which a log-concave density in the graphical model of $G$ has a log-concave factorization according to $G$.

Overparameterized neural networks enjoy great representation power on complex data, and more importantly yield sufficiently smooth output, which is crucial to their generalization and robustness. Most existing function approximation theories suggest that with sufficiently many parameters, neural networks can well approximate certain classes of functions in terms of the function value. The neural network themselves, however, can be highly nonsmooth. To bridge this gap, we take convolutional residual networks (ConvResNets) as an example, and prove that large ConvResNets can not only approximate a target function in terms of function value, but also exhibit sufficient first-order smoothness. Moreover, we extend our theory to approximating functions supported on a low-dimensional manifold. Our theory partially justifies the benefits of using deep and wide networks in practice. Numerical experiments on adversarial robust image classification are provided to support our theory.

Major depressive disorder (MDD) requires study of brain functional connectivity alterations for patients, which can be uncovered by resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) data. We consider the problem of identifying alterations of brain functional connectivity for a single MDD patient. This is particularly difficult since the amount of data collected during an fMRI scan is too limited to provide sufficient information for individual analysis. Additionally, rs-fMRI data usually has the characteristics of incompleteness, sparsity, variability, high dimensionality and high noise. To address these problems, we proposed a multitask Gaussian Bayesian network (MTGBN) framework capable for identifying individual disease-induced alterations for MDD patients. We assume that such disease-induced alterations show some degrees of similarity with the tool to learn such network structures from observations to understanding of how system are structured jointly from related tasks. First, we treat each patient in a class of observation as a task and then learn the Gaussian Bayesian networks (GBNs) of this data class by learning from all tasks that share a default covariance matrix that encodes prior knowledge. This setting can help us to learn more information from limited data. Next, we derive a closed-form formula of the complete likelihood function and use the Monte-Carlo Expectation-Maximization(MCEM) algorithm to search for the approximately best Bayesian network structures efficiently. Finally, we assess the performance of our methods with simulated and real-world rs-fMRI data.

Based on the manifold hypothesis, real-world data often lie on a low-dimensional manifold, while normalizing flows as a likelihood-based generative model are incapable of finding this manifold due to their structural constraints. So, one interesting question arises: $\textit{"Can we find sub-manifold(s) of data in normalizing flows and estimate the density of the data on the sub-manifold(s)?"}$. In this paper, we introduce two approaches, namely per-pixel penalized log-likelihood and hierarchical training, to answer the mentioned question. We propose a single-step method for joint manifold learning and density estimation by disentangling the transformed space obtained by normalizing flows to manifold and off-manifold parts. This is done by a per-pixel penalized likelihood function for learning a sub-manifold of the data. Normalizing flows assume the transformed data is Gaussianizationed, but this imposed assumption is not necessarily true, especially in high dimensions. To tackle this problem, a hierarchical training approach is employed to improve the density estimation on the sub-manifold. The results validate the superiority of the proposed methods in simultaneous manifold learning and density estimation using normalizing flows in terms of generated image quality and likelihood.

We present a data-driven approach for probabilistic wind power forecasting based on conditional normalizing flow (CNF). In contrast with the existing, this approach is distribution-free (as for non-parametric and quantile-based approaches) and can directly yield continuous probability densities, hence avoiding quantile crossing. It relies on a base distribution and a set of bijective mappings. Both the shape parameters of the base distribution and the bijective mappings are approximated with neural networks. Spline-based conditional normalizing flow is considered owing to its non-affine characteristics. Over the training phase, the model sequentially maps input examples onto samples of base distribution, given the conditional contexts, where parameters are estimated through maximum likelihood. To issue probabilistic forecasts, one eventually maps samples of the base distribution into samples of a desired distribution. Case studies based on open datasets validate the effectiveness of the proposed model, and allows us to discuss its advantages and caveats with respect to the state of the art.

Abstract: One major drawback of deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for use in safety critical applications is their black-box nature. This makes it hard to verify or monitor complex, symbolic requirements on already trained computer vision CNNs. In this work, we present a simple, yet effective, approach to verify that a CNN complies with symbolic predicate logic rules which relate visual concepts. It is the first that (1) does not modify the CNN, (2) may use visual concepts that are no CNN in- or output feature, and (3) can leverage continuous CNN confidence outputs. To achieve this, we newly combine methods from explainable artificial intelligence and logic: First, using supervised concept embedding analysis, the output of a CNN is post-hoc enriched by concept outputs.

Abstract: Decision-making is a process of choosing among alternative courses of action for solving complicated problems where multi-criteria objectives are involved. The past few years have witnessed a growing recognition of Soft Computing technologies that underlie the conception, design and utilization of intelligent systems. Several works have been done where engineers and scientists have applied intelligent techniques and heuristics to obtain optimal decisions from imprecise information. In this paper, we present a concurrent fuzzy-neural network approach combining unsupervised and supervised learning techniques to develop the Tactical Air Combat Decision Support System (TACDSS). Abstract: Several adaptation techniques have been investigated to optimize fuzzy inference systems.

Bayesian models have many desirable properties, most notable is their ability to generalize from limited data and to properly estimate the uncertainty in their predictions. However, these benefits come at a steep computational cost as Bayesian inference, in most cases, is computationally intractable. One popular approach to alleviate this problem is using a Monte-Carlo estimation with an ensemble of models sampled from the posterior. However, this approach still comes at a significant computational cost, as one needs to store and run multiple models at test time. In this work, we investigate how to best distill an ensemble's predictions using an efficient model. First, we argue that current approaches that simply return distribution over predictions cannot compute important properties, such as the covariance between predictions, which can be valuable for further processing. Second, in many limited data settings, all ensemble members achieve nearly zero training loss, namely, they produce near-identical predictions on the training set which results in sub-optimal distilled models. To address both problems, we propose a novel and general distillation approach, named Functional Ensemble Distillation (FED), and we investigate how to best distill an ensemble in this setting. We find that learning the distilled model via a simple augmentation scheme in the form of mixup augmentation significantly boosts the performance. We evaluated our method on several tasks and showed that it achieves superior results in both accuracy and uncertainty estimation compared to current approaches.

We define the information threshold as the point of maximum curvature in the prior vs. posterior Bayesian curve, both of which are described as a function of the true positive and negative rates of the classification system in question. The nature of the threshold is such that for sufficiently adequate binary classification systems, retrieving excess information beyond the threshold does not significantly alter the reliability of our classification assessment. We hereby introduce the "marital status thought experiment" to illustrate this idea and report a previously undefined mathematical relationship between the Bayesian prior and posterior, which may have significant philosophical and epistemological implications in decision theory. Where the prior probability is a scalar between 0 and 1 given by $\phi$ and the posterior is a scalar between 0 and 1 given by $\rho$, then at the information threshold, $\phi_e$: $\phi_e + \rho_e = 1$ Otherwise stated, given some degree of prior belief, we may assert its persuasiveness when sufficient quality evidence yields a posterior so that their combined sum equals 1. Retrieving further evidence beyond this point does not significantly improve the posterior probability, and may serve as a benchmark for confidence in decision-making.