Causal discovery for quantitative data has been extensively studied but less is known for categorical data. We propose a novel causal model for categorical data based on a new classification model, termed classification with optimal label permutation (COLP). By design, COLP is a parsimonious classifier, which gives rise to a provably identifiable causal model. A simple learning algorithm via comparing likelihood functions of causal and anti-causal models suffices to learn the causal direction. Through experiments with synthetic and real data, we demonstrate the favorable performance of the proposed COLP-based causal model compared to state-of-the-art methods. We also make available an accompanying R package COLP, which contains the proposed causal discovery algorithm and a benchmark dataset of categorical cause-effect pairs.

A machine learning (ML) system must learn not only to match the output of a target function on a training set, but also to generalize to novel situations in order to yield accurate predictions at deployment. In most practical applications, the user cannot exhaustively enumerate every possible input to the model; strong generalization performance is therefore crucial to the development of ML systems which are performant and reliable enough to be deployed in the real world. While generalization is well-understood theoretically in a number of hypothesis classes, the impressive generalization performance of deep neural networks has stymied theoreticians. In deep reinforcement learning (RL), our understanding of generalization is further complicated by the conflict between generalization and stability in widely-used RL algorithms. This thesis will provide insight into generalization by studying the learning dynamics of deep neural networks in both supervised and reinforcement learning tasks.

Monitoring and managing Earth's forests in an informed manner is an important requirement for addressing challenges like biodiversity loss and climate change. While traditional in situ or aerial campaigns for forest assessments provide accurate data for analysis at regional level, scaling them to entire countries and beyond with high temporal resolution is hardly possible. In this work, we propose a method based on deep ensembles that densely estimates forest structure variables at country-scale with 10-meter resolution, using freely available satellite imagery as input. Our method jointly transforms Sentinel-2 optical images and Sentinel-1 synthetic-aperture radar images into maps of five different forest structure variables: 95th height percentile, mean height, density, Gini coefficient, and fractional cover. We train and test our model on reference data from 41 airborne laser scanning missions across Norway and demonstrate that it is able to generalize to unseen test regions, achieving normalized mean absolute errors between 11% and 15%, depending on the variable. Our work is also the first to propose a variant of so-called Bayesian deep learning to densely predict multiple forest structure variables with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates from satellite imagery. The uncertainty information increases the trustworthiness of the model and its suitability for downstream tasks that require reliable confidence estimates as a basis for decision making. We present an extensive set of experiments to validate the accuracy of the predicted maps as well as the quality of the predicted uncertainties. To demonstrate scalability, we provide Norway-wide maps for the five forest structure variables.

Abstract: A persistent challenge in conditional image synthesis has been to generate diverse output images from the same input image despite only one output image being observed per input image. GAN-based methods are prone to mode collapse, which leads to low diversity. To get around this, we leverage Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) which can overcome mode collapse fundamentally. IMLE uses the same generator as GANs but trains it with a different, non-adversarial objective which ensures each observed image has a generated sample nearby. Unfortunately, to generate high-fidelity images, prior IMLE-based methods require a large number of samples, which is expensive.

The energy consumption of private households amounts to approximately 30% of the total global energy consumption, causing a large share of the CO2 emissions through energy production. An intelligent demand response via load shifting increases the energy efficiency of residential buildings by nudging residents to change their energy consumption behavior. This paper introduces an activity prediction-based framework for the utility-based context-aware multi-agent recommendation system that generates an activity shifting schedule for a 24-hour time horizon to either focus on CO2 emissions or energy cost savings. In particular, we design and implement an Activity Agent that uses hourly energy consumption data. It does not require further sensorial data or activity labels which reduces implementation costs and the need for extensive user input. Moreover, the system enhances the utility option of saving energy costs by saving CO2 emissions and provides the possibility to focus on both dimensions. The empirical results show that while setting the focus on CO2 emissions savings, the system provides an average of 12% of emissions savings and 7% of cost savings. When focusing on energy cost savings, 20% of energy costs and 6% of emissions savings are possible for the studied households in case of accepting all recommendations. Recommending an activity schedule, the system uses the same terms residents describe their domestic life. Therefore, recommendations can be more easily integrated into daily life supporting the acceptance of the system in a long-term perspective.

Inverse medium scattering solvers generally reconstruct a single solution without an associated measure of uncertainty. This is true both for the classical iterative solvers and for the emerging deep learning methods. But ill-posedness and noise can make this single estimate inaccurate or misleading. While deep networks such as conditional normalizing flows can be used to sample posteriors in inverse problems, they often yield low-quality samples and uncertainty estimates. In this paper, we propose U-Flow, a Bayesian U-Net based on conditional normalizing flows, which generates high-quality posterior samples and estimates physically-meaningful uncertainty. We show that the proposed model significantly outperforms the recent normalizing flows in terms of posterior sample quality while having comparable performance with the U-Net in point estimation.

Sampling-based model predictive control (MPC) can be applied to versatile robotic systems. However, the real-time control with it is a big challenge due to its unstable updates and poor convergence. This paper tackles this challenge with a novel derivation from reverse Kullback-Leibler divergence, which has a mode-seeking behavior and is likely to find one of the sub-optimal solutions early. With this derivation, a weighted maximum likelihood estimation with positive/negative weights is obtained, solving by mirror descent (MD) algorithm. While the negative weights eliminate unnecessary actions, that requires to develop a practical implementation that avoids the interference with positive/negative updates based on rejection sampling. In addition, although the convergence of MD can be accelerated with Nesterov's acceleration method, it is modified for the proposed MPC with a heuristic of a step size adaptive to the noise estimated in update amounts. In the real-time simulations, the proposed method can solve more tasks statistically than the conventional method and accomplish more complex tasks only with a CPU due to the improved acceleration. In addition, its applicability is also demonstrated in a variable impedance control of a force-driven mobile robot. https://youtu.be/D8bFMzct1XM

Regression is often associated with the task of curve fitting -- given data samples for pairs of random variables (X, Y), find a function y = F (x) that captures the relationship between X and Y as well as possible. As the underlying population for the (X, Y) pairs becomes increasingly complex, much efforts have been devoted to learning more complex models for the (regression) function F; see [20, 49, 15] for some recent examples. In many data domains, however, due to the heterogeneity of the behavior of the response variable Y with respect to covariate X, no single function F can fit the data pairs well, no matter how complex F is. Many authors noticed this challenge and adopted a mixture modeling framework into the regression problem, starting with some earlier work of [51, 6, 14]. To capture the uncertain and highly heterogeneous behavior of response variable Y given covariate X, one needs more than one single regression model. Suppose that there are k different regression behaviors, one can represent the conditional distribution of Y given X by a mixture of k conditional density functions associated with k underlying (latent) subpopulations. One can draw from the existing modeling tools of conditional densities such as generalized linear models [39], or more complex components [28, 63, 22] to increase the model fitness for the regression task. Recently, mixture of regression models (alternatively, regression mixture models) have found their applications in a vast range of domains, including risk estimation [2], education [7], medicine [34, 43, 56] and transportation analysis [46, 47, 64]. Making inferences in mixture of regression models can be done in a classical frequentist framework (e.g., maximum conditional likelihood estimation [6]), or a Bayesian framework [27].

Bayesian networks (BNs) are attractive, because they are graphical and interpretable machine learning models. However, exact inference on BNs is time-consuming, especially for complex problems. To improve the efficiency, we propose a fast BN exact inference solution named Fast-BNI on multi-core CPUs. Fast-BNI enhances the efficiency of exact inference through hybrid parallelism that tightly integrates coarse- and fine-grained parallelism. We also propose techniques to further simplify the bottleneck operations of BN exact inference. Fast-BNI source code is freely available at https://github.com/jjiantong/FastBN.

DeeProb-kit is a unified library written in Python consisting of a collection of deep probabilistic models (DPMs) that are tractable and exact representations for the modelled probability distributions. The availability of a representative selection of DPMs in a single library makes it possible to combine them in a straightforward manner, a common practice in deep learning research nowadays. In addition, it includes efficiently implemented learning techniques, inference routines, statistical algorithms, and provides high-quality fully-documented APIs. The development of DeeProb-kit will help the community to accelerate research on DPMs as well as to standardise their evaluation and better understand how they are related based on their expressivity.