Bayesian networks (BNs) are probabilistic graphical models which concisely represent the dependence structure between discrete variables through a directed acyclic graph (DAG) [29, 41]. Any conditional independence between variables embedded in the model can be directly read from the underlying DAG through the so-called D-separation criterion [30]. However, in practical applications, it has been found that often the symmetric assumption of conditional independence is too restrictive and models graphically depicting asymmetric independence are needed. Various notions of asymmetric conditional independence have been since defined, including context-specific [4], partial [32] and local [7], and formal studies of their properties appeared [11, 12, 36, 43]. Although extensions of BNs embedding and representing asymmetric conditional independence have been defined [16, 22, 31, 33, 42], they often lose the intuitiveness associated to DAGs and no software is available for their use in practice.

Off-policy evaluation methods are important in recommendation systems and search engines, where data collected under an existing logging policy is used to estimate the performance of a new proposed policy. A common approach to this problem is weighting, where data is weighted by a density ratio between the probability of actions given contexts in the target and logged policies. In practice, two issues often arise. First, many problems have very large action spaces and we may not observe rewards for most actions, and so in finite samples we may encounter a positivity violation. Second, many recommendation systems are not probabilistic and so having access to logging and target policy densities may not be feasible. To address these issues, we introduce the featurized embedded permutation weighting estimator. The estimator computes the density ratio in an action embedding space, which reduces the possibility of positivity violations. The density ratio is computed leveraging recent advances in normalizing flows and density ratio estimation as a classification problem, in order to obtain estimates which are feasible in practice.

Humans have internal models of robots (like their physical capabilities), the world (like what will happen next), and their tasks (like a preferred goal). However, human internal models are not always perfect: for example, it is easy to underestimate a robot's inertia. Nevertheless, these models change and improve over time as humans gather more experience. Interestingly, robot actions influence what this experience is, and therefore influence how people's internal models change. In this work we take a step towards enabling robots to understand the influence they have, leverage it to better assist people, and help human models more quickly align with reality. Our key idea is to model the human's learning as a nonlinear dynamical system which evolves the human's internal model given new observations. We formulate a novel optimization problem to infer the human's learning dynamics from demonstrations that naturally exhibit human learning. We then formalize how robots can influence human learning by embedding the human's learning dynamics model into the robot planning problem. Although our formulations provide concrete problem statements, they are intractable to solve in full generality. We contribute an approximation that sacrifices the complexity of the human internal models we can represent, but enables robots to learn the nonlinear dynamics of these internal models. We evaluate our inference and planning methods in a suite of simulated environments and an in-person user study, where a 7DOF robotic arm teaches participants to be better teleoperators. While influencing human learning remains an open problem, our results demonstrate that this influence is possible and can be helpful in real human-robot interaction.

Finding discriminant functions of minimum risk binary classification systems is a novel geometric locus problem -- which requires solving a system of fundamental locus equations of binary classification -- subject to deep-seated statistical laws. We show that a discriminant function of a minimum risk binary classification system is the solution of a locus equation that represents the geometric locus of the decision boundary of the system, wherein the discriminant function is connected to the decision boundary by an exclusive principal eigen-coordinate system -- at which point the discriminant function is represented by a geometric locus of a novel principal eigenaxis -- structured as a dual locus of likelihood components and principal eigenaxis components. We demonstrate that a minimum risk binary classification system acts to jointly minimize its eigenenergy and risk by locating a point of equilibrium, at which point critical minimum eigenenergies exhibited by the system are symmetrically concentrated in such a manner that the novel principal eigenaxis of the system exhibits symmetrical dimensions and densities, so that counteracting and opposing forces and influences of the system are symmetrically balanced with each other -- about the geometric center of the locus of the novel principal eigenaxis -- whereon the statistical fulcrum of the system is located. Thereby, a minimum risk binary classification system satisfies a state of statistical equilibrium -- so that the total allowed eigenenergy and the expected risk exhibited by the system are jointly minimized within the decision space of the system -- at which point the system exhibits the minimum probability of classification error.

Variational autoencoders model high-dimensional data by positing low-dimensional latent variables that are mapped through a flexible distribution parametrized by a neural network. Unfortunately, variational autoencoders often suffer from posterior collapse: the posterior of the latent variables is equal to its prior, rendering the variational autoencoder useless as a means to produce meaningful representations. Existing approaches to posterior collapse often attribute it to the use of neural networks or optimization issues due to variational approximation. In this paper, we consider posterior collapse as a problem of latent variable non-identifiability. We prove that the posterior collapses if and only if the latent variables are non-identifiable in the generative model. This fact implies that posterior collapse is not a phenomenon specific to the use of flexible distributions or approximate inference. Rather, it can occur in classical probabilistic models even with exact inference, which we also demonstrate. Based on these results, we propose a class of latent-identifiable variational autoencoders, deep generative models which enforce identifiability without sacrificing flexibility. This model class resolves the problem of latent variable non-identifiability by leveraging bijective Brenier maps and parameterizing them with input convex neural networks, without special variational inference objectives or optimization tricks. Across synthetic and real datasets, latent-identifiable variational autoencoders outperform existing methods in mitigating posterior collapse and providing meaningful representations of the data.

Ithaca is a Fuzzy Logic (FL) plugin for developing artificial intelligence systems within the Unity game engine. Its goal is to provide an intuitive and natural way to build advanced artificial intelligence systems, making the implementation of such a system faster and more affordable. The software is made up by a C\# framework and an Application Programming Interface (API) for writing inference systems, as well as a set of tools for graphic development and debugging. Additionally, a Fuzzy Control Language (FCL) parser is provided in order to import systems previously defined using this standard.

This paper concerns realizing highly efficient information-theoretic robot exploration with desired performance in complex scenes. We build a continuous lightweight inference model to predict the mutual information (MI) and the associated prediction confidence of the robot's candidate actions which have not been evaluated explicitly. This allows the decision-making stage in robot exploration to run with a logarithmic complexity approximately, this will also benefit online exploration in large unstructured, and cluttered places that need more spatial samples to assess and decide. We also develop an objective function to balance the local optimal action with the highest MI value and the global choice with high prediction variance. Extensive numerical and dataset simulations show the desired efficiency of our proposed method without losing exploration performance in different environments. We also provide our open-source implementation codes released on GitHub for the robot community.

This paper revisits a fundamental problem in statistical inference from a non-asymptotic theoretical viewpoint $\unicode{x2013}$ the construction of confidence sets. We establish a finite-sample bound for the estimator, characterizing its asymptotic behavior in a non-asymptotic fashion. An important feature of our bound is that its dimension dependency is captured by the effective dimension $\unicode{x2013}$ the trace of the limiting sandwich covariance $\unicode{x2013}$ which can be much smaller than the parameter dimension in some regimes. We then illustrate how the bound can be used to obtain a confidence set whose shape is adapted to the optimization landscape induced by the loss function. Unlike previous works that rely heavily on the strong convexity of the loss function, we only assume the Hessian is lower bounded at optimum and allow it to gradually becomes degenerate. This property is formalized by the notion of generalized self-concordance which originated from convex optimization. Moreover, we demonstrate how the effective dimension can be estimated from data and characterize its estimation accuracy. We apply our results to maximum likelihood estimation with generalized linear models, score matching with exponential families, and hypothesis testing with Rao's score test.

Multi-fidelity Kriging model is a promising technique in surrogate-based design as it can balance the model accuracy and cost of sample preparation by fusing low- and high-fidelity data. However, the cost for building a multi-fidelity Kriging model increases significantly with the increase of the problem dimension. To attack this issue, an efficient Hierarchical Kriging modeling method is proposed. In building the low-fidelity model, the maximal information coefficient is utilized to calculate the relative value of the hyperparameter. With this, the maximum likelihood estimation problem for determining the hyperparameters is transformed as a one-dimension optimization problem, which can be solved in an efficient manner and thus improve the modeling efficiency significantly. A local search is involved further to exploit the search space of hyperparameters to improve the model accuracy. The high-fidelity model is built in a similar manner with the hyperparameter of the low-fidelity model served as the relative value of the hyperparameter for high-fidelity model. The performance of the proposed method is compared with the conventional tuning strategy, by testing them over ten analytic problems and an engineering problem of modeling the isentropic efficiency of a compressor rotor. The empirical results demonstrate that the modeling time of the proposed method is reduced significantly without sacrificing the model accuracy. For the modeling of the isentropic efficiency of the compressor rotor, the cost saving associated with the proposed method is about 90% compared with the conventional strategy. Meanwhile, the proposed method achieves higher accuracy.

Uncertainty quantification is crucial to inverse problems, as it could provide decision-makers with valuable information about the inversion results. For example, seismic inversion is a notoriously ill-posed inverse problem due to the band-limited and noisy nature of seismic data. It is therefore of paramount importance to quantify the uncertainties associated to the inversion process to ease the subsequent interpretation and decision making processes. Within this framework of reference, sampling from a target posterior provides a fundamental approach to quantifying the uncertainty in seismic inversion. However, selecting appropriate prior information in a probabilistic inversion is crucial, yet non-trivial, as it influences the ability of a sampling-based inference in providing geological realism in the posterior samples. To overcome such limitations, we present a regularized variational inference framework that performs posterior inference by implicitly regularizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence loss with a CNN-based denoiser by means of the Plug-and-Play methods. We call this new algorithm Plug-and-Play Stein Variational Gradient Descent (PnP-SVGD) and demonstrate its ability in producing high-resolution, trustworthy samples representative of the subsurface structures, which we argue could be used for post-inference tasks such as reservoir modelling and history matching. To validate the proposed method, numerical tests are performed on both synthetic and field post-stack seismic data.