Reinforcement Learning (RL; Sutton and Barto, 2018; Mannor et al., 2022) studies online decision making problems in which an agent learns through experience within a dynamic environment, with the goal to minimize a loss function associated with the agent-environment interaction. Modern applications of RL such as robotics(Schulman et al., 2015; Lillicrap et al., 2015; Akkaya et al., 2019), game playing (Mnih et al., 2013; Silver et al., 2018) and autonomous driving (Kiran et al., 2021), almost invariably consist of large scale environments where function approximation techniques are necessary to allow the agent to generalize across different states. Furthermore, some form of agent robustness is usually required to cope with environment irregularities that cannot be faithfully represented by stochasticity assumptions (see e.g., Dulac-Arnold et al., 2021). Theoretical foundations for RL with function approximation (e.g., Jiang et al., 2017; Yang and Wang, 2019; Jin et al., 2020b; Agarwal et al., 2020) have been steadily coming into fruition.

We establish estimations for the parameters of the output distribution for the softmax activation function using the probit function. As an application, we develop a new efficient Bayesian learning algorithm for fully connected neural networks, where training and predictions are performed within the Bayesian inference framework in closed-form. This approach allows sequential learning and requires no computationally expensive gradient calculation and Monte Carlo sampling. Our work generalizes the Bayesian algorithm for a single perceptron for binary classification in \cite{H} to multi-layer perceptrons for multi-class classification.

Graphs are a powerful data structure to represent relational data and are widely used to describe complex real-world data structures. Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) have been well-developed in the past years to mathematically model real-world scenarios in compact graphical representations of distributions of variables. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are new inference methods developed in recent years and are attracting growing attention due to their effectiveness and flexibility in solving inference and learning problems over graph-structured data. These two powerful approaches have different advantages in capturing relations from observations and how they conduct message passing, and they can benefit each other in various tasks. In this survey, we broadly study the intersection of GNNs and PGMs. Specifically, we first discuss how GNNs can benefit from learning structured representations in PGMs, generate explainable predictions by PGMs, and how PGMs can infer object relationships. Then we discuss how GNNs are implemented in PGMs for more efficient inference and structure learning. In the end, we summarize the benchmark datasets used in recent studies and discuss promising future directions.

Simulation-based inference (SBI) techniques are now an essential tool for the parameter estimation of mechanistic and simulatable models with intractable likelihoods. Statistical approaches to SBI such as approximate Bayesian computation and Bayesian synthetic likelihood have been well studied in the well specified and misspecified settings. However, most implementations are inefficient in that many model simulations are wasted. Neural approaches such as sequential neural likelihood (SNL) have been developed that exploit all model simulations to build a surrogate of the likelihood function. However, SNL approaches have been shown to perform poorly under model misspecification. In this paper, we develop a new method for SNL that is robust to model misspecification and can identify areas where the model is deficient. We demonstrate the usefulness of the new approach on several illustrative examples.

Individual-based epidemiological models support the study of fine-grained preventive measures, such as tailored vaccine allocation policies, in silico. As individual-based models are computationally intensive, it is pivotal to identify optimal strategies within a reasonable computational budget. Moreover, due to the high societal impact associated with the implementation of preventive strategies, uncertainty regarding decisions should be communicated to policy makers, which is naturally embedded in a Bayesian approach. We present a novel technique for evaluating vaccine allocation strategies using a multi-armed bandit framework in combination with a Bayesian anytime $m$-top exploration algorithm. $m$-top exploration allows the algorithm to learn $m$ policies for which it expects the highest utility, enabling experts to inspect this small set of alternative strategies, along with their quantified uncertainty. The anytime component provides policy advisors with flexibility regarding the computation time and the desired confidence, which is important as it is difficult to make this trade-off beforehand. We consider the Belgian COVID-19 epidemic using the individual-based model STRIDE, where we learn a set of vaccination policies that minimize the number of infections and hospitalisations. Through experiments we show that our method can efficiently identify the $m$-top policies, which is validated in a scenario where the ground truth is available. Finally, we explore how vaccination policies can best be organised under different contact reduction schemes. Through these experiments, we show that the top policies follow a clear trend regarding the prioritised age groups and assigned vaccine type, which provides insights for future vaccination campaigns.

There are many frameworks for deep generative modeling, each often presented with their own specific training algorithms and inference methods. Here, we demonstrate the connections between existing deep generative models and the recently introduced GFlowNet framework, a probabilistic inference machine which treats sampling as a decision-making process. This analysis sheds light on their overlapping traits and provides a unifying viewpoint through the lens of learning with Markovian trajectories. Our framework provides a means for unifying training and inference algorithms, and provides a route to shine a unifying light over many generative models. Beyond this, we provide a practical and experimentally verified recipe for improving generative modeling with insights from the GFlowNet perspective.

In this work, we initiate the idea of using denoising diffusion models to learn priors for online decision making problems. Our special focus is on the meta-learning for bandit framework, with the goal of learning a strategy that performs well across bandit tasks of a same class. To this end, we train a diffusion model that learns the underlying task distribution and combine Thompson sampling with the learned prior to deal with new tasks at test time. Our posterior sampling algorithm is designed to carefully balance between the learned prior and the noisy observations that come from the learner's interaction with the environment. To capture realistic bandit scenarios, we also propose a novel diffusion model training procedure that trains even from incomplete and/or noisy data, which could be of independent interest. Finally, our extensive experimental evaluations clearly demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

There has been concern within the artificial intelligence (AI) community and the broader society regarding the potential lack of fairness of AI-based decision-making systems. Surprisingly, there is little work quantifying and guaranteeing fairness in the presence of uncertainty which is prevalent in many socially sensitive applications, ranging from marketing analytics to actuarial analysis and recidivism prediction instruments. To this end, we study a longitudinal censored learning problem subject to fairness constraints, where we require that algorithmic decisions made do not affect certain individuals or social groups negatively in the presence of uncertainty on class label due to censorship. We argue that this formulation has a broader applicability to practical scenarios concerning fairness. We show how the newly devised fairness notions involving censored information and the general framework for fair predictions in the presence of censorship allow us to measure and mitigate discrimination under uncertainty that bridges the gap with real-world applications. Empirical evaluations on real-world discriminated datasets with censorship demonstrate the practicality of our approach.

We study reinforcement learning with linear function approximation where the transition probability and reward functions are linear with respect to a feature mapping $\boldsymbol{\phi}(s,a)$. Specifically, we consider the episodic inhomogeneous linear Markov Decision Process (MDP), and propose a novel computation-efficient algorithm, LSVI-UCB$^+$, which achieves an $\widetilde{O}(Hd\sqrt{T})$ regret bound where $H$ is the episode length, $d$ is the feature dimension, and $T$ is the number of steps. LSVI-UCB$^+$ builds on weighted ridge regression and upper confidence value iteration with a Bernstein-type exploration bonus. Our statistical results are obtained with novel analytical tools, including a new Bernstein self-normalized bound with conservatism on elliptical potentials, and refined analysis of the correction term. This is a minimax optimal algorithm for linear MDPs up to logarithmic factors, which closes the $\sqrt{Hd}$ gap between the upper bound of $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{H^3d^3T})$ in (Jin et al., 2020) and lower bound of $\Omega(Hd\sqrt{T})$ for linear MDPs.

The last decade witnessed an ever-increasing stream of successes in Machine Learning (ML). These successes offer clear evidence that ML is bound to become pervasive in a wide range of practical uses, including many that directly affect humans. Unfortunately, the operation of the most successful ML models is incomprehensible for human decision makers. As a result, the use of ML models, especially in high-risk and safety-critical settings is not without concern. In recent years, there have been efforts on devising approaches for explaining ML models. Most of these efforts have focused on so-called model-agnostic approaches. However, all model-agnostic and related approaches offer no guarantees of rigor, hence being referred to as non-formal. For example, such non-formal explanations can be consistent with different predictions, which renders them useless in practice. This paper overviews the ongoing research efforts on computing rigorous model-based explanations of ML models; these being referred to as formal explanations. These efforts encompass a variety of topics, that include the actual definitions of explanations, the characterization of the complexity of computing explanations, the currently best logical encodings for reasoning about different ML models, and also how to make explanations interpretable for human decision makers, among others.