Uncertainty
Streaming probabilistic tensor train decomposition
Huang, Yunyu, Feng, Yani, Liao, Qifeng
Effective numerical techniques, such as CANDECOMP/PARAFAC (CP) decomposition [10, 11, 12] and Tucker decomposition [13, 14] are the most commonly used tensor decomposition approaches and have been proposed to compress full tensors and to obtain their low-rank representations. CP decomposition approximates a tensor by a sum of rank-one tensors, while Tucker decomposition decomposes a tensor into a core tensor and several factor matrices. Since CP decomposition can be seen as a special case of Tucker decomposition [15], Tucker decomposition is more flexible than CP decomposition. However, due to the existence of a core tensor, Tucker decomposition also brings challenges in both modeling and computation. In this paper, we mainly focus on Tensor Train (TT) decomposition [16], which combines the advantages of CP and Tucker decomposition, because it provides a space-saving model called TT format while preserving the representation power. This paper is interested in the decomposition of streaming data. Due to the stress on database capacity and privacy, streaming data is generated continuously by different of data sources and in small sizes, such as log files from web application [17] and information from social networks [18]. Recently, several works decompose fast streaming data, e.g.
Multi-Valued Neural Networks I A Multi-Valued Associative Memory
Maximov, Dmitry, Goncharenko, Vladimir I., Legovich, Yury S.
A new concept of a multi-valued associative memory is introduced, generalizing a similar one in fuzzy neural networks. We expand the results on fuzzy associative memory with thresholds, to the case of a multi-valued one: we introduce the novel concept of such a network without numbers, investigate its properties, and give a learning algorithm in the multi-valued case. We discovered conditions under which it is possible to store given pairs of network variable patterns in such a multi-valued associative memory. In the multi-valued neural network, all variables are not numbers, but elements or subsets of a lattice, i.e., they are all only partially-ordered. Lattice operations are used to build the network output by inputs. In this paper, the lattice is assumed to be Brouwer and determines the implication used, together with other lattice operations, to determine the neural network output. We gave the example of the network use to classify aircraft/spacecraft trajectories.
Forward variable selection enables fast and accurate dynamic system identification with Karhunen-Lo\`eve decomposed Gaussian processes
Hayes, Kyle, Fouts, Michael W., Baheri, Ali, Mebane, David S.
A promising approach for scalable Gaussian processes (GPs) is the Karhunen-Lo\`eve (KL) decomposition, in which the GP kernel is represented by a set of basis functions which are the eigenfunctions of the kernel operator. Such decomposed kernels have the potential to be very fast, and do not depend on the selection of a reduced set of inducing points. However KL decompositions lead to high dimensionality, and variable selection becomes paramount. This paper reports a new method of forward variable selection, enabled by the ordered nature of the basis functions in the KL expansion of the Bayesian Smoothing Spline ANOVA kernel (BSS-ANOVA), coupled with fast Gibbs sampling in a fully Bayesian approach. It quickly and effectively limits the number of terms, yielding a method with competitive accuracies, training and inference times for tabular datasets of low feature set dimensionality. The inference speed and accuracy makes the method especially useful for dynamic systems identification, by modeling the dynamics in the tangent space as a static problem, then integrating the learned dynamics using a high-order scheme. The methods are demonstrated on two dynamic datasets: a `Susceptible, Infected, Recovered' (SIR) toy problem, with the transmissibility used as forcing function, along with the experimental `Cascaded Tanks' benchmark dataset. Comparisons on the static prediction of time derivatives are made with a random forest (RF), a residual neural network (ResNet), and the Orthogonal Additive Kernel (OAK) inducing points scalable GP, while for the timeseries prediction comparisons are made with LSTM and GRU recurrent neural networks (RNNs) along with the SINDy package.
Multi-Agent Congestion Cost Minimization With Linear Function Approximations
Trivedi, Prashant, Hemachandra, Nandyala
This work considers multiple agents traversing a network from a source node to the goal node. The cost to an agent for traveling a link has a private as well as a congestion component. The agent's objective is to find a path to the goal node with minimum overall cost in a decentralized way. We model this as a fully decentralized multi-agent reinforcement learning problem and propose a novel multi-agent congestion cost minimization (MACCM) algorithm. Our MACCM algorithm uses linear function approximations of transition probabilities and the global cost function. In the absence of a central controller and to preserve privacy, agents communicate the cost function parameters to their neighbors via a time-varying communication network. Moreover, each agent maintains its estimate of the global state-action value, which is updated via a multi-agent extended value iteration (MAEVI) sub-routine. We show that our MACCM algorithm achieves a sub-linear regret. The proof requires the convergence of cost function parameters, the MAEVI algorithm, and analysis of the regret bounds induced by the MAEVI triggering condition for each agent. We implement our algorithm on a two node network with multiple links to validate it. We first identify the optimal policy, the optimal number of agents going to the goal node in each period. We observe that the average regret is close to zero for 2 and 3 agents. The optimal policy captures the trade-off between the minimum cost of staying at a node and the congestion cost of going to the goal node. Our work is a generalization of learning the stochastic shortest path problem.
VI-DGP: A variational inference method with deep generative prior for solving high-dimensional inverse problems
Xia, Yingzhi, Liao, Qifeng, Li, Jinglai
Solving high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems (BIPs) with the variational inference (VI) method is promising but still challenging. The main difficulties arise from two aspects. First, VI methods approximate the posterior distribution using a simple and analytic variational distribution, which makes it difficult to estimate complex spatially-varying parameters in practice. Second, VI methods typically rely on gradient-based optimization, which can be computationally expensive or intractable when applied to BIPs involving partial differential equations (PDEs). To address these challenges, we propose a novel approximation method for estimating the high-dimensional posterior distribution. This approach leverages a deep generative model to learn a prior model capable of generating spatially-varying parameters. This enables posterior approximation over the latent variable instead of the complex parameters, thus improving estimation accuracy. Moreover, to accelerate gradient computation, we employ a differentiable physics-constrained surrogate model to replace the adjoint method. The proposed method can be fully implemented in an automatic differentiation manner. Numerical examples demonstrate two types of log-permeability estimation for flow in heterogeneous media. The results show the validity, accuracy, and high efficiency of the proposed method.
Variational Boosted Soft Trees
Cinquin, Tristan, Rukat, Tammo, Schmidt, Philipp, Wistuba, Martin, Bekasov, Artur
Gradient boosting machines (GBMs) based on decision trees consistently demonstrate state-of-the-art results on regression and classification tasks with tabular data, often outperforming deep neural networks. However, these models do not provide well-calibrated predictive uncertainties, which prevents their use for decision making in high-risk applications. The Bayesian treatment is known to improve predictive uncertainty calibration, but previously proposed Bayesian GBM methods are either computationally expensive, or resort to crude approximations. Variational inference is often used to implement Bayesian neural networks, but is difficult to apply to GBMs, because the decision trees used as weak learners are non-differentiable. In this paper, we propose to implement Bayesian GBMs using variational inference with soft decision trees, a fully differentiable alternative to standard decision trees introduced by Irsoy et al. Our experiments demonstrate that variational soft trees and variational soft GBMs provide useful uncertainty estimates, while retaining good predictive performance. The proposed models show higher test likelihoods when compared to the state-of-the-art Bayesian GBMs in 7/10 tabular regression datasets and improved out-of-distribution detection in 5/10 datasets.
Cluster Purging: Efficient Outlier Detection based on Rate-Distortion Theory
Toller, Maximilian B., Geiger, Bernhard C., Kern, Roman
Rate-distortion theory-based outlier detection builds upon the rationale that a good data compression will encode outliers with unique symbols. Based on this rationale, we propose Cluster Purging, which is an extension of clustering-based outlier detection. This extension allows one to assess the representivity of clusterings, and to find data that are best represented by individual unique clusters. We propose two efficient algorithms for performing Cluster Purging, one being parameter-free, while the other algorithm has a parameter that controls representivity estimations, allowing it to be tuned in supervised setups. In an experimental evaluation, we show that Cluster Purging improves upon outliers detected from raw clusterings, and that Cluster Purging competes strongly against state-of-the-art alternatives.
Feasible Recourse Plan via Diverse Interpolation
Nguyen, Duy, Bui, Ngoc, Nguyen, Viet Anh
Explaining algorithmic decisions and recommending actionable feedback is increasingly important for machine learning applications. Recently, significant efforts have been invested in finding a diverse set of recourses to cover the wide spectrum of users' preferences. However, existing works often neglect the requirement that the recourses should be close to the data manifold; hence, the constructed recourses might be implausible and unsatisfying to users. To address these issues, we propose a novel approach that explicitly directs the diverse set of actionable recourses towards the data manifold. We first find a diverse set of prototypes in the favorable class that balances the trade-off between diversity and proximity. We demonstrate two specific methods to find these prototypes: either by finding the maximum a posteriori estimate of a determinantal point process or by solving a quadratic binary program. To ensure the actionability constraints, we construct an actionability graph in which the nodes represent the training samples and the edges indicate the feasible action between two instances. We then find a feasible path to each prototype, and this path demonstrates the feasible actions for each recourse in the plan. The experimental results show that our method produces a set of recourses that are close to the data manifold while delivering a better cost-diversity trade-off than existing approaches.
Whittle Index based Q-Learning for Wireless Edge Caching with Linear Function Approximation
Xiong, Guojun, Wang, Shufan, Li, Jian, Singh, Rahul
We consider the problem of content caching at the wireless edge to serve a set of end users via unreliable wireless channels so as to minimize the average latency experienced by end users due to the constrained wireless edge cache capacity. We formulate this problem as a Markov decision process, or more specifically a restless multi-armed bandit problem, which is provably hard to solve. We begin by investigating a discounted counterpart, and prove that it admits an optimal policy of the threshold-type. We then show that this result also holds for average latency problem. Using this structural result, we establish the indexability of our problem, and employ the Whittle index policy to minimize average latency. Since system parameters such as content request rates and wireless channel conditions are often unknown and time-varying, we further develop a model-free reinforcement learning algorithm dubbed as Q^{+}-Whittle that relies on Whittle index policy. However, Q^{+}-Whittle requires to store the Q-function values for all state-action pairs, the number of which can be extremely large for wireless edge caching. To this end, we approximate the Q-function by a parameterized function class with a much smaller dimension, and further design a Q^{+}-Whittle algorithm with linear function approximation, which is called Q^{+}-Whittle-LFA. We provide a finite-time bound on the mean-square error of Q^{+}-Whittle-LFA. Simulation results using real traces demonstrate that Q^{+}-Whittle-LFA yields excellent empirical performance.
Bayes meets Bernstein at the Meta Level: an Analysis of Fast Rates in Meta-Learning with PAC-Bayes
Riou, Charles, Alquier, Pierre, Chérief-Abdellatif, Badr-Eddine
Bernstein's condition is a key assumption that guarantees fast rates in machine learning. For example, the Gibbs algorithm with prior $\pi$ has an excess risk in $O(d_{\pi}/n)$, as opposed to the standard $O(\sqrt{d_{\pi}/n})$, where $n$ denotes the number of observations and $d_{\pi}$ is a complexity parameter which depends on the prior $\pi$. In this paper, we examine the Gibbs algorithm in the context of meta-learning, i.e., when learning the prior $\pi$ from $T$ tasks (with $n$ observations each) generated by a meta distribution. Our main result is that Bernstein's condition always holds at the meta level, regardless of its validity at the observation level. This implies that the additional cost to learn the Gibbs prior $\pi$, which will reduce the term $d_\pi$ across tasks, is in $O(1/T)$, instead of the expected $O(1/\sqrt{T})$. We further illustrate how this result improves on standard rates in three different settings: discrete priors, Gaussian priors and mixture of Gaussians priors.