Quantum Bayesian Computation (QBC) is an emerging field that levers the computational gains available from quantum computers to provide an exponential speed-up in Bayesian computation. Our paper adds to the literature in two ways. First, we show how von Neumann quantum measurement can be used to simulate machine learning algorithms such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Deep Learning (DL) that are fundamental to Bayesian learning. Second, we describe data encoding methods needed to implement quantum machine learning including the counterparts to traditional feature extraction and kernel embeddings methods. Our goal then is to show how to apply quantum algorithms directly to statistical machine learning problems. On the theoretical side, we provide quantum versions of high dimensional regression, Gaussian processes (Q-GP) and stochastic gradient descent (Q-SGD). On the empirical side, we apply a Quantum FFT model to Chicago housing data. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.

Transport map methods offer a powerful statistical learning tool that can couple a target high-dimensional random variable with some reference random variable using invertible transformations. This paper presents new computational techniques for building the Knothe--Rosenblatt (KR) rearrangement based on general separable functions. We first introduce a new construction of the KR rearrangement -- with guaranteed invertibility in its numerical implementation -- based on approximating the density of the target random variable using tensor-product spectral polynomials and downward closed sparse index sets. Compared to other constructions of KR arrangements based on either multi-linear approximations or nonlinear optimizations, our new construction only relies on a weighted least square approximation procedure. Then, inspired by the recently developed deep tensor trains (Cui and Dolgov, Found. Comput. Math. 22:1863--1922, 2022), we enhance the approximation power of sparse polynomials by preconditioning the density approximation problem using compositions of maps. This is particularly suitable for high-dimensional and concentrated probability densities commonly seen in many applications. We approximate the complicated target density by a composition of self-reinforced KR rearrangements, in which previously constructed KR rearrangements -- based on the same approximation ansatz -- are used to precondition the density approximation problem for building each new KR rearrangement. We demonstrate the efficiency of our proposed methods and the importance of using the composite map on several inverse problems governed by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and partial differential equations (PDEs).

We propose a method for optimal Bayesian filtering with deterministic particles. In order to avoid particle degeneration, the filter step is not performed at once. Instead, the particles progressively flow from prior to posterior. This is achieved by splitting the filter step into a series of sub-steps. In each sub-step, optimal resampling is done by a map that replaces non-equally weighted particles with equally weighted ones. Inversions of the maps or monotonicity constraints are not required, greatly simplifying the procedure. The parameters of the mapping network are optimized w.r.t.\ to a particle set distance. This distance is differentiable, and compares non-equally and equally weighted particles. Composition of the map sequence provides a final mapping from prior to posterior particles. Radial basis function neural networks are used as maps. It is important that no intermediate continuous density representation is required. The entire flow works directly with particle representations. This avoids costly density estimation.

The problem of model selection with a limited number of experimental trials has received considerable attention in cognitive science, where the role of experiments is to discriminate between theories expressed as computational models. Research on this subject has mostly been restricted to optimal experiment design with analytically tractable models. However, cognitive models of increasing complexity, with intractable likelihoods, are becoming more commonplace. In this paper, we propose BOSMOS: an approach to experimental design that can select between computational models without tractable likelihoods. It does so in a data-efficient manner, by sequentially and adaptively generating informative experiments. In contrast to previous approaches, we introduce a novel simulator-based utility objective for design selection, and a new approximation of the model likelihood for model selection. In simulated experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed BOSMOS technique can accurately select models in up to 2 orders of magnitude less time than existing LFI alternatives for three cognitive science tasks: memory retention, sequential signal detection and risky choice.

We present the first calibration of quantum decision theory (QDT) to a dataset of binary risky choice. We quantitatively account for the fraction of choice reversals between two repetitions of the experiment, using a probabilistic choice formulation in the simplest form without model assumption or adjustable parameters. The prediction of choice reversal is then refined by introducing heterogeneity between decision makers through their differentiation into two groups: ``majoritarian'' and ``contrarian'' (in proportion 3:1). This supports the first fundamental tenet of QDT, which models choice as an inherent probabilistic process, where the probability of a prospect can be expressed as the sum of its utility and attraction factors. We propose to parameterise the utility factor with a stochastic version of cumulative prospect theory (logit-CPT), and the attraction factor with a constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) function. For this dataset, and penalising the larger number of QDT parameters via the Wilks test of nested hypotheses, the QDT model is found to perform significantly better than logit-CPT at both the aggregate and individual levels, and for all considered fit criteria for the first experiment iteration and for predictions (second ``out-of-sample'' iteration). The distinctive QDT effect captured by the attraction factor is mostly appreciable (i.e., most relevant and strongest in amplitude) for prospects with big losses. Our quantitative analysis of the experimental results supports the existence of an intrinsic limit of predictability, which is associated with the inherent probabilistic nature of choice. The results of the paper can find applications both in the prediction of choice of human decision makers as well as for organizing the operation of artificial intelligence.

Accurately monitoring road traffic state and speed is crucial for various applications, including travel time prediction, traffic control, and traffic safety. However, the lack of sensors often results in incomplete traffic state data, making it challenging to obtain reliable information for decision-making. This paper proposes a novel method for imputing traffic state data using Gaussian processes (GP) to address this issue. We propose a kernel rotation re-parametrization scheme that transforms a standard isotropic GP kernel into an anisotropic kernel, which can better model the propagation of traffic waves in traffic flow data. This method can be applied to impute traffic state data from fixed sensors or probe vehicles. Moreover, the rotated GP method provides statistical uncertainty quantification for the imputed traffic state, making it more reliable. We also extend our approach to a multi-output GP, which allows for simultaneously estimating the traffic state for multiple lanes. We evaluate our method using real-world traffic data from the Next Generation simulation (NGSIM) and HighD programs. Considering current and future mixed traffic of connected vehicles (CVs) and human-driven vehicles (HVs), we experiment with the traffic state estimation scheme from 5% to 50% available trajectories, mimicking different CV penetration rates in a mixed traffic environment. Results show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of estimation accuracy, efficiency, and robustness.

In this section, we empirically evaluate the proposed algorithm VIPeR against several state-of-the-art baselines, including (a) PEVI (Jin et al., 2021), which explicitly constructs lower confidence bound (LCB) for pessimism in a linear model (thus, we rename this algorithm as LinLCB for convenience in our experiments); (b) NeuraLCB (Nguyen-Tang et al., 2022a) which explicitly constructs an LCB using neural network gradients; (c) NeuraLCB (Diag), which is NeuraLCB with a diagonal approximation for estimating the confidence set as suggested in NeuraLCB (Nguyen-Tang et al., 2022a); (d) Lin-VIPeR which is VIPeR realized to the linear function approximation instead of neural network function approximation; (e) NeuralGreedy (LinGreedy, respectively) which uses neural networks (linear models, respectively) to fit the offline data and act greedily with respect to the estimated state-action value functions without any pessimism. Note that when the parametric class, F, in Algorithm 1 is that of neural networks, we refer to VIPeR as Neural-VIPeR. We do not utilize data splitting in the experiments. We provide further algorithmic details of the baselines in Section H. We evaluate all algorithms in two problem settings: (1) the underlying MDP is a linear MDP whose reward functions and transition kernels are linear in some known feature map (Jin et al., 2020), and (2) the underlying MDP is non-linear with horizon length H = 1 (i.e., non-linear contextual bandits) (Zhou et al., 2020), where the reward function is either synthetic or constructed from MNIST

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) addresses the problem of learning a performant policy from a fixed batch of data collected by following some behavior policy. Model-based approaches are particularly appealing in the offline setting since they can extract more learning signals from the logged dataset by learning a model of the environment. However, the performance of existing model-based approaches falls short of model-free counterparts, due to the compounding of estimation errors in the learned model. Driven by this observation, we argue that it is critical for a model-based method to understand when to trust the model and when to rely on model-free estimates, and how to act conservatively w.r.t. both. To this end, we derive an elegant and simple methodology called conservative Bayesian model-based value expansion for offline policy optimization (CBOP), that trades off model-free and model-based estimates during the policy evaluation step according to their epistemic uncertainties, and facilitates conservatism by taking a lower bound on the Bayesian posterior value estimate. On the standard D4RL continuous control tasks, we find that our method significantly outperforms previous model-based approaches: e.g., MOPO by $116.4$%, MOReL by $23.2$% and COMBO by $23.7$%. Further, CBOP achieves state-of-the-art performance on $11$ out of $18$ benchmark datasets while doing on par on the remaining datasets.

In this work, we provide a deterministic alternative to the stochastic variational training of generative autoencoders. We refer to these new generative autoencoders as AutoEncoders within Flows (AEF), since the encoder and decoder are defined as affine layers of an overall invertible architecture. This results in a deterministic encoding of the data, as opposed to the stochastic encoding of VAEs. The paper introduces two related families of AEFs. The first family relies on a partition of the ambient space and is trained by exact maximum-likelihood. The second family exploits a deterministic expansion of the ambient space and is trained by maximizing the log-probability in this extended space. This latter case leaves complete freedom in the choice of encoder, decoder and prior architectures, making it a drop-in replacement for the training of existing VAEs and VAE-style models. We show that these AEFs can have strikingly higher performance than architecturally identical VAEs in terms of log-likelihood and sample quality, especially for low dimensional latent spaces. Importantly, we show that AEF samples are substantially sharper than VAE samples.

Recently, Model Predictive Contouring Control (MPCC) has arisen as the state-of-the-art approach for model-based agile flight. MPCC benefits from great flexibility in trading-off between progress maximization and path following at runtime without relying on globally optimized trajectories. However, finding the optimal set of tuning parameters for MPCC is challenging because (i) the full quadrotor dynamics are non-linear, (ii) the cost function is highly non-convex, and (iii) of the high dimensionality of the hyperparameter space. This paper leverages a probabilistic Policy Search method - Weighted Maximum Likelihood (WML)- to automatically learn the optimal objective for MPCC. WML is sample-efficient due to its closed-form solution for updating the learning parameters. Additionally, the data efficiency provided by the use of a model-based approach allows us to directly train in a high-fidelity simulator, which in turn makes our approach able to transfer zero-shot to the real world. We validate our approach in the real world, where we show that our method outperforms both the previous manually tuned controller and the state-of-the-art auto-tuning baseline reaching speeds of 75 km/h.