For more than half a century, vibratory bowl feeders have been the standard in automated assembly for singulation, orientation, and manipulation of small parts. Unfortunately, these feeders are expensive, noisy, and highly specialized on a single part design bases. We consider an alternative device and learning control method for singulation, orientation, and manipulation by means of seven fixed-position variable-energy solenoid impulse actuators located beneath a semi-rigid part supporting surface. Using computer vision to provide part pose information, we tested various machine learning (ML) algorithms to generate a control policy that selects the optimal actuator and actuation energy. Our manipulation test object is a 6-sided craps-style die. Using the most suitable ML algorithm, we were able to flip the die to any desired face 30.4\% of the time with a single impulse, and 51.3\% with two chosen impulses, versus a random policy succeeding 5.1\% of the time (that is, a randomly chosen impulse delivered by a randomly chosen solenoid).

Deep neural networks can learn powerful prior probability models for images, as evidenced by the high-quality generations obtained with recent score-based diffusion methods. But the means by which these networks capture complex global statistical structure, apparently without suffering from the curse of dimensionality, remain a mystery. To study this, we incorporate diffusion methods into a multi-scale decomposition, reducing dimensionality by assuming a stationary local Markov model for wavelet coefficients conditioned on coarser-scale coefficients. We instantiate this model using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with local receptive fields, which enforce both the stationarity and Markov properties. Global structures are captured using a CNN with receptive fields covering the entire (but small) low-pass image. We test this model on a dataset of face images, which are highly non-stationary and contain large-scale geometric structures. Remarkably, denoising, super-resolution, and image synthesis results all demonstrate that these structures can be captured with significantly smaller conditioning neighborhoods than required by a Markov model implemented in the pixel domain. Our results show that score estimation for large complex images can be reduced to low-dimensional Markov conditional models across scales, alleviating the curse of dimensionality. Deep neural networks (DNNs) have produced dramatic advances in synthesizing complex images and solving inverse problems, all of which rely (at least implicitly) on prior probability models.

Traditional models of opinion dynamics provide a simple approach to understanding human behavior in basic social scenarios. However, when it comes to issues such as polarization and extremism, we require a more nuanced understanding of human biases and cognitive tendencies. In this paper, we propose an approach to modeling opinion dynamics by integrating mental models and assumptions of individuals agents using Bayesian-inspired methods. By exploring the relationship between human rationality and Bayesian theory, we demonstrate the efficacy of these methods in describing how opinions evolve. Our analysis leverages the Continuous Opinions and Discrete Actions (CODA) model, applying Bayesian-inspired rules to account for key human behaviors such as confirmation bias, motivated reasoning, and our reluctance to change opinions. Through this, we obtain update rules that offer deeper insights into the dynamics of extreme opinions. Our work sheds light on the role of human biases in shaping opinion dynamics and highlights the potential of Bayesian-inspired modeling to provide more accurate predictions of real-world scenarios. Keywords: Opinion dynamics, Bayesian methods, Cognition, CODA, Agent-based models

We study the Bayesian regret of the renowned Thompson Sampling algorithm in contextual bandits with binary losses and adversarially-selected contexts. We adapt the information-theoretic perspective of \cite{RvR16} to the contextual setting by considering a lifted version of the information ratio defined in terms of the unknown model parameter instead of the optimal action or optimal policy as done in previous works on the same setting. This allows us to bound the regret in terms of the entropy of the prior distribution through a remarkably simple proof, and with no structural assumptions on the likelihood or the prior. The extension to priors with infinite entropy only requires a Lipschitz assumption on the log-likelihood. An interesting special case is that of logistic bandits with $d$-dimensional parameters, $K$ actions, and Lipschitz logits, for which we provide a $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{dKT})$ regret upper-bound that does not depend on the smallest slope of the sigmoid link function.

Energy-based models parameterize the unnormalized log-probability of data samples, but there is a lack of guidance on how to construct the "energy". In this paper, we propose a Denoising-EBM which decomposes the image energy into "semantic energy" and "texture energy". We define the "semantic energy" in the latent space of DAE to model the high-level representations, and define the pixel-level reconstruction error for denoising as "texture energy". Inspired by score-based model, our model utilizes multi-scale noisy samples for maximum-likelihood training and it outputs a vector instead of a scalar for exploring a larger set of functions during optimization. After training, the semantics are first synthesized by fast MCMC through "semantic energy", and then the pixel-level refinement of semantic image will be performed to generate perfect samples based on "texture energy". Ultimately, our model can outperform most EBMs in image generation. And we also demonstrate that Denoising-EBM has top performance among EBMs for out-of-distribution detection.

A contextual bandit is a popular framework for online learning to act under uncertainty. In practice, the number of actions is huge and their expected rewards are correlated. In this work, we introduce a general framework for capturing such correlations through a mixed-effect model where actions are related through multiple shared effect parameters. To explore efficiently using this structure, we propose Mixed-Effect Thompson Sampling (meTS) and bound its Bayes regret. The regret bound has two terms, one for learning the action parameters and the other for learning the shared effect parameters. The terms reflect the structure of our model and the quality of priors. Our theoretical findings are validated empirically using both synthetic and real-world problems. We also propose numerous extensions of practical interest. While they do not come with guarantees, they perform well empirically and show the generality of the proposed framework.

Conventional temporal causal discovery (CD) methods suffer from high dimensionality, fail to identify lagged causal relationships, and often ignore dynamics in relations. In this study, we present a novel constraint-based CD approach for autocorrelated and non-stationary time series data (eCDANs) capable of detecting lagged and contemporaneous causal relationships along with temporal changes. eCDANs addresses high dimensionality by optimizing the conditioning sets while conducting conditional independence (CI) tests and identifies the changes in causal relations by introducing a surrogate variable to represent time dependency. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data show that eCDANs can identify time influence and outperform the baselines.

In various practical situations, matrix factorization methods suffer from poor data quality, such as high data sparsity and low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Here we consider a matrix factorization problem by utilizing auxiliary information, which is massively available in real applications, to overcome the challenges caused by poor data quality. Unlike existing methods that mainly rely on simple linear models to combine auxiliary information with the main data matrix, we propose to integrate gradient boosted trees in the probabilistic matrix factorization framework to effectively leverage auxiliary information (MFAI). Thus, MFAI naturally inherits several salient features of gradient boosted trees, such as the capability of flexibly modeling nonlinear relationships, and robustness to irrelevant features and missing values in auxiliary information. The parameters in MAFI can be automatically determined under the empirical Bayes framework, making it adaptive to the utilization of auxiliary information and immune to overfitting. Moreover, MFAI is computationally efficient and scalable to large-scale datasets by exploiting variational inference. We demonstrate the advantages of MFAI through comprehensive numerical results from simulation studies and real data analysis. Our approach is implemented in the R package mfair available at https://github.com/YangLabHKUST/mfair.

Transformer models have achieved profound success in prediction tasks in a wide range of applications in natural language processing, speech recognition and computer vision. Extending Transformer's success to safety-critical domains requires calibrated uncertainty estimation which remains under-explored. To address this, we propose Sparse Gaussian Process attention (SGPA), which performs Bayesian inference directly in the output space of multi-head attention blocks (MHAs) in transformer to calibrate its uncertainty. It replaces the scaled dot-product operation with a valid symmetric kernel and uses sparse Gaussian processes (SGP) techniques to approximate the posterior processes of MHA outputs. Empirically, on a suite of prediction tasks on text, images and graphs, SGPA-based Transformers achieve competitive predictive accuracy, while noticeably improving both indistribution calibration and out-of-distribution robustness and detection. Significant improvements have been made for accuracies in prediction tasks for computer vision, speech recognition and natural language processing using deep learning (He et al., 2015; Graves et al., 2013; Vaswani et al., 2017). In particular, Transformers (Vaswani et al., 2017) based on multihead attention (MHA) have gained popularity in recent years. With Transformers being deployed in many downstream applications (Vaswani et al., 2017; Dosovitskiy et al., 2021; Brown et al., 2020), it is crucial to prevent poor robustness which often comes from erratic outputs with high confidence from these models (Guo et al., 2017b; Mukhoti et al., 2020). This requires calibrated uncertainty quantification for Transformers which is much less well-studied at the time of this work, and it raises concerns about using Transformers for safety-critical tasks which require rational and risk-averse decision making under uncertainty. Regarding uncertainty quantification, Bayesian inference is a powerful and principled framework to build probabilistic models for rational prediction and decision-making under uncertainty (Gal, 2016). Significant progress is observed for applying (approximate) Bayesian inference methods to quantify uncertainty in fully-connected, convolutional and recurrent neural networks (Blundell et al., 2015; Gal & Ghahramani, 2016; Zhang et al., 2019; Ritter et al., 2021). Initial efforts have been made on extending these techniques to Transformers but with mixed results (Tran et al., 2019; Xue et al., 2021).

Stochastic neural networks (SNNs) are random functions whose predictions are gained by averaging over multiple realizations. Consequently, a gradient-based adversarial example is calculated based on one set of samples and its classification on another set. In this paper, we derive a sufficient condition for such a stochastic prediction to be robust against a given sample-based attack. This allows us to identify the factors that lead to an increased robustness of SNNs and gives theoretical explanations for: (i) the well known observation, that increasing the amount of samples drawn for the estimation of adversarial examples increases the attack's strength, (ii) why increasing the number of samples during an attack can not fully reduce the effect of stochasticity, (iii) why the sample size during inference does not influence the robustness, and (iv) why a higher gradient variance and a shorter expected value of the gradient relates to a higher robustness. Our theoretical findings give a unified view on the mechanisms underlying previously proposed approaches for increasing attack strengths or model robustness and are verified by an extensive empirical analysis.