Abstract-- General robotic grippers are challenging to control because of their rich nonsmooth contact dynamics and the many sources of uncertainties due to the environment or sensor noise. In this work, we demonstrate how to compute 6-DoF grasp poses using simulation-based Bayesian inference through the full stochastic forward simulation of the robot in its environment while robustly accounting for many of the uncertainties in the system. A Riemannian manifold optimization procedure preserving the nonlinearity of the rotation space is used to compute the maximum a posteriori grasp pose. Simulation and physical benchmarks show the promising high success rate of the approach. Industrial grasping works very well in highly structured environments with few uncertainties.

This position paper reflects on the state-of-the-art in decision-making under uncertainty. A classical assumption is that probabilities can sufficiently capture all uncertainty in a system. In this paper, the focus is on the uncertainty that goes beyond this classical interpretation, particularly by employing a clear distinction between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. The paper features an overview of Markov decision processes (MDPs) and extensions to account for partial observability and adversarial behavior. These models sufficiently capture aleatoric uncertainty but fail to account for epistemic uncertainty robustly. Consequently, we present a thorough overview of so-called uncertainty models that exhibit uncertainty in a more robust interpretation. We show several solution techniques for both discrete and continuous models, ranging from formal verification, over control-based abstractions, to reinforcement learning. As an integral part of this paper, we list and discuss several key challenges that arise when dealing with rich types of uncertainty in a model-based fashion.

We develop the theory of hypothesis testing based on the e-value, a notion of evidence that, unlike the p-value, allows for effortlessly combining results from several studies in the common scenario where the decision to perform a new study may depend on previous outcomes. Tests based on e-values are safe, i.e. they preserve Type-I error guarantees, under such optional continuation. We define growth-rate optimality (GRO) as an analogue of power in an optional continuation context, and we show how to construct GRO e-variables for general testing problems with composite null and alternative, emphasizing models with nuisance parameters. GRO e-values take the form of Bayes factors with special priors. We illustrate the theory using several classic examples including a one-sample safe t-test and the 2 x 2 contingency table. Sharing Fisherian, Neymanian and Jeffreys-Bayesian interpretations, e-values may provide a methodology acceptable to adherents of all three schools.

A generative model based on a continuous-time normalizing flow between any pair of base and target probability densities is proposed. The velocity field of this flow is inferred from the probability current of a time-dependent density that interpolates between the base and the target in finite time. Unlike conventional normalizing flow inference methods based the maximum likelihood principle, which require costly backpropagation through ODE solvers, our interpolant approach leads to a simple quadratic loss for the velocity itself which is expressed in terms of expectations that are readily amenable to empirical estimation. The flow can be used to generate samples from either the base or target, and to estimate the likelihood at any time along the interpolant. In addition, the flow can be optimized to minimize the path length of the interpolant density, thereby paving the way for building optimal transport maps. In situations where the base is a Gaussian density, we also show that the velocity of our normalizing flow can also be used to construct a diffusion model to sample the target as well as estimate its score. However, our approach shows that we can bypass this diffusion completely and work at the level of the probability flow with greater simplicity, opening an avenue for methods based solely on ordinary differential equations as an alternative to those based on stochastic differential equations. Benchmarking on density estimation tasks illustrates that the learned flow can match and surpass conventional continuous flows at a fraction of the cost, and compares well with diffusions on image generation on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet $32\times32$. The method scales ab-initio ODE flows to previously unreachable image resolutions, demonstrated up to $128\times128$.

We consider the problem of learning a Gaussian graphical model in the case where the observations come from two dependent groups sharing the same variables. We focus on a family of coloured Gaussian graphical models specifically suited for the paired data problem. Commonly, graphical models are ordered by the submodel relationship so that the search space is a lattice, called the model inclusion lattice. We introduce a novel order between models, named the twin order. We show that, embedded with this order, the model space is a lattice that, unlike the model inclusion lattice, is distributive. Furthermore, we provide the relevant rules for the computation of the neighbours of a model. The latter are more efficient than the same operations in the model inclusion lattice, and are then exploited to achieve a more efficient exploration of the search space. These results can be applied to improve the efficiency of both greedy and Bayesian model search procedures. Here we implement a stepwise backward elimination procedure and evaluate its performance by means of simulations. Finally, the procedure is applied to learn a brain network from fMRI data where the two groups correspond to the left and right hemispheres, respectively.

Today, the web has become a mandatory platform to express users' opinions, emotions and feelings about various events. Every person using his smartphone can give his opinion about the purchase of a product, the occurrence of an accident, the occurrence of a new disease, etc. in blogs and social networks such as (Twitter, WhatsApp, Telegram and Instagram) register. Therefore, millions of comments are recorded daily and it creates a huge volume of unstructured text data that can extract useful knowledge from this type of data by using natural language processing methods. Sentiment analysis is one of the important applications of natural language processing and machine learning, which allows us to analyze the sentiments of comments and other textual information recorded by web users. Therefore, the analysis of sentiments, approaches and challenges in this field will be explained in the following.

We introduce Sparse Variational Bayesian Monte Carlo (SVBMC), a method for fast "post-process" Bayesian inference for models with black-box and potentially noisy likelihoods. SVBMC reuses all existing target density evaluations -- for example, from previous optimizations or partial Markov Chain Monte Carlo runs -- to build a sparse Gaussian process (GP) surrogate model of the log posterior density. Uncertain regions of the surrogate are then refined via active learning as needed. Our work builds on the Variational Bayesian Monte Carlo (VBMC) framework for sample-efficient inference, with several novel contributions. First, we make VBMC scalable to a large number of pre-existing evaluations via sparse GP regression, deriving novel Bayesian quadrature formulae and acquisition functions for active learning with sparse GPs. Second, we introduce noise shaping, a general technique to induce the sparse GP approximation to focus on high posterior density regions. Third, we prove theoretical results in support of the SVBMC refinement procedure. We validate our method on a variety of challenging synthetic scenarios and real-world applications. We find that SVBMC consistently builds good posterior approximations by post-processing of existing model evaluations from different sources, often requiring only a small number of additional density evaluations.

Training object detection models usually requires instance-level annotations, such as the positions and labels of all objects present in each image. Such supervision is unfortunately not always available and, more often, only image-level information is provided, also known as weak supervision. Recent works have addressed this limitation by leveraging knowledge from a richly annotated domain. However, the scope of weak supervision supported by these approaches has been very restrictive, preventing them to use all available information. In this work, we propose ProbKT, a framework based on probabilistic logical reasoning that allows to train object detection models with arbitrary types of weak supervision. We empirically show on different datasets that using all available information is beneficial as our ProbKT leads to significant improvement on target domain and better generalization compared to existing baselines. We also showcase the ability of our approach to handle complex logic statements as supervision signal.

Reliability updating refers to a problem that integrates Bayesian updating technique with structural reliability analysis and cannot be directly solved by structural reliability methods (SRMs) when it involves equality information. The state-of-the-art approaches transform equality information into inequality information by introducing an auxiliary standard normal parameter. These methods, however, encounter the loss of computational efficiency due to the difficulty in finding the maximum of the likelihood function, the large coefficient of variation (COV) associated with the posterior failure probability and the inapplicability to dynamic updating problems where new information is constantly available. To overcome these limitations, this paper proposes an innovative method called RU-SAIS (reliability updating using sequential adaptive importance sampling), which combines elements of sequential importance sampling and K-means clustering to construct a series of important sampling densities (ISDs) using Gaussian mixture. The last ISD of the sequence is further adaptively modified through application of the cross entropy method. The performance of RU-SAIS is demonstrated by three examples. Results show that RU-SAIS achieves a more accurate and robust estimator of the posterior failure probability than the existing methods such as subset simulation.

We initiate the study of smoothed analysis for the sequential probability assignment problem with contexts. We study information-theoretically optimal minmax rates as well as a framework for algorithmic reduction involving the maximum likelihood estimator oracle. Our approach establishes a general-purpose reduction from minimax rates for sequential probability assignment for smoothed adversaries to minimax rates for transductive learning. This leads to optimal (logarithmic) fast rates for parametric classes and classes with finite VC dimension. On the algorithmic front, we develop an algorithm that efficiently taps into the MLE oracle, for general classes of functions. We show that under general conditions this algorithmic approach yields sublinear regret.