Uncertainty
Leveraging joint sparsity in hierarchical Bayesian learning
We present a hierarchical Bayesian learning approach to infer jointly sparse parameter vectors from multiple measurement vectors. Our model uses separate conditionally Gaussian priors for each parameter vector and common gamma-distributed hyper-parameters to enforce joint sparsity. The resulting joint-sparsity-promoting priors are combined with existing Bayesian inference methods to generate a new family of algorithms. Our numerical experiments, which include a multi-coil magnetic resonance imaging application, demonstrate that our new approach consistently outperforms commonly used hierarchical Bayesian methods.
That Label's Got Style: Handling Label Style Bias for Uncertain Image Segmentation
Zepf, Kilian, Petersen, Eike, Frellsen, Jes, Feragen, Aasa
Segmentation uncertainty models predict a distribution over plausible segmentations for a given input, which they learn from the annotator variation in the training set. However, in practice these annotations can differ systematically in the way they are generated, for example through the use of different labeling tools. This results in datasets that contain both data variability and differing label styles. In this paper, we demonstrate that applying state-of-the-art segmentation uncertainty models on such datasets can lead to model bias caused by the different label styles. We present an updated modelling objective conditioning on labeling style for aleatoric uncertainty estimation, and modify two state-of-the-art-architectures for segmentation uncertainty accordingly. We show with extensive experiments that this method reduces label style bias, while improving segmentation performance, increasing the applicability of segmentation uncertainty models in the wild. We curate two datasets, with annotations in different label styles, which we will make publicly available along with our code upon publication.
Maximum likelihood smoothing estimation in state-space models: An incomplete-information based approach
This paper revisits classical works of Rauch (1963, et al. 1965) and develops a novel method for maximum likelihood (ML) smoothing estimation from incomplete information/data of stochastic state-space systems. Score function and conditional observed information matrices of incomplete data are introduced and their distributional identities are established. Using these identities, the ML smoother $\widehat{x}_{k\vert n}^s =\argmax_{x_k} \log f(x_k,\widehat{x}_{k+1\vert n}^s, y_{0:n}\vert\theta)$, $k\leq n-1$, is presented. The result shows that the ML smoother gives an estimate of state $x_k$ with more adherence of loglikehood having less standard errors than that of the ML state estimator $\widehat{x}_k=\argmax_{x_k} \log f(x_k,y_{0:k}\vert\theta)$, with $\widehat{x}_{n\vert n}^s=\widehat{x}_n$. Recursive estimation is given in terms of an EM-gradient-particle algorithm which extends the work of \cite{Lange} for ML smoothing estimation. The algorithm has an explicit iteration update which lacks in (\cite{Ramadan}) EM-algorithm for smoothing. A sequential Monte Carlo method is developed for valuation of the score function and observed information matrices. A recursive equation for the covariance matrix of estimation error is developed to calculate the standard errors. In the case of linear systems, the method shows that the Rauch-Tung-Striebel (RTS) smoother is a fully efficient smoothing state-estimator whose covariance matrix coincides with the Cram\'er-Rao lower bound, the inverse of expected information matrix. Furthermore, the RTS smoother coincides with the Kalman filter having less covariance matrix. Numerical studies are performed, confirming the accuracy of the main results.
Manifold Learning by Mixture Models of VAEs for Inverse Problems
Alberti, Giovanni S., Hertrich, Johannes, Santacesaria, Matteo, Sciutto, Silvia
Representing a manifold of very high-dimensional data with generative models has been shown to be computationally efficient in practice. However, this requires that the data manifold admits a global parameterization. In order to represent manifolds of arbitrary topology, we propose to learn a mixture model of variational autoencoders. Here, every encoder-decoder pair represents one chart of a manifold. We propose a loss function for maximum likelihood estimation of the model weights and choose an architecture that provides us the analytical expression of the charts and of their inverses. Once the manifold is learned, we use it for solving inverse problems by minimizing a data fidelity term restricted to the learned manifold. To solve the arising minimization problem we propose a Riemannian gradient descent algorithm on the learned manifold. We demonstrate the performance of our method for low-dimensional toy examples as well as for deblurring and electrical impedance tomography on certain image manifolds.
A Comprehensive Survey on Test-Time Adaptation under Distribution Shifts
Liang, Jian, He, Ran, Tan, Tieniu
Abstract--Machine learning methods strive to acquire a robust model during training that can generalize well to test samples, even under distribution shifts. However, these methods often suffer from a performance drop due to unknown test distributions. Test-time adaptation (TTA), an emerging paradigm, has the potential to adapt a pre-trained model to unlabeled data during testing, before making predictions. Recent progress in this paradigm highlights the significant benefits of utilizing unlabeled data for training self-adapted models prior to inference. In this survey, we divide TTA into several distinct categories, namely, test-time (source-free) domain adaptation, test-time batch adaptation, online test-time adaptation, and test-time prior adaptation. For each category, we provide a comprehensive taxonomy of advanced algorithms, followed by a discussion of different learning scenarios. Furthermore, we analyze relevant applications of TTA and discuss open challenges and promising areas for future research. However, when the test distribution (target) differs from the training distribution (source), we face the problem of distribution shifts. Such a shift poses significant challenges for machine learning systems deployed in the wild, such as images captured by different cameras [2], road scenes of different cities [3], and imaging devices in different hospitals [4]. In contrast, TTA only requires access to the pre-trained from one or multiple source domains that can generalize model from the source domain, making it a secure and well to any out-of-distribution target domain. Figure 1: test-time domain adaptation, test-time batch adaptation This survey primarily focuses on test-time adaptation (TTBA), and online test-time adaptation (OTTA). That is to say, test data. Additionally, DA typically necessitates access to the predictions of each mini-batch are independent of the both labeled data from the source domain and (unlabeled) predictions for the other mini-batches. Ran He is also with the School of Artificial Intelligence, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences. In this survey, we use the terms "test data" and "target data" Tieniu Tan is also with Nanjing University, China. DA methods rely on the existence of source applied to OTTA with the assumption of knowledge reuse.
ACO-tagger: A Novel Method for Part-of-Speech Tagging using Ant Colony Optimization
Mohammadi, Amirhossein, Hajiaghajani, Sara, Bahrani, Mohammad
Swarm Intelligence algorithms have gained significant attention in recent years as a means of solving complex and non-deterministic problems. These algorithms are inspired by the collective behavior of natural creatures, and they simulate this behavior to develop intelligent agents for computational tasks. One such algorithm is Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), which is inspired by the foraging behavior of ants and their pheromone laying mechanism. ACO is used for solving difficult problems that are discrete and combinatorial in nature. Part-of-Speech (POS) tagging is a fundamental task in natural language processing that aims to assign a part-of-speech role to each word in a sentence. In this research paper, proposed a high-performance POS-tagging method based on ACO called ACO-tagger. This method achieved a high accuracy rate of 96.867%, outperforming several state-of-the-art methods. The proposed method is fast and efficient, making it a viable option for practical applications.
Conjunction Data Messages for Space Collision Behave as a Poisson Process
Caldas, Francisco, Soares, Cláudia, Nunes, Cláudia, Guimarães, Marta
Space debris is a major problem in space exploration. International bodies continuously monitor a large database of orbiting objects and emit warnings in the form of conjunction data messages. An important question for satellite operators is to estimate when fresh information will arrive so that they can react timely but sparingly with satellite maneuvers. We propose a statistical learning model of the message arrival process, allowing us to answer two important questions: (1) Will there be any new message in the next specified time interval? (2) When exactly and with what uncertainty will the next message arrive? The average prediction error for question (2) of our Bayesian Poisson process model is smaller than the baseline in more than 4 hours in a test set of 50k close encounter events.
Regularized EM algorithm
Houdouin, Pierre, Ollila, Esa, Pascal, Frederic
Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is a widely used iterative algorithm for computing (local) maximum likelihood estimate (MLE). It can be used in an extensive range of problems, including the clustering of data based on the Gaussian mixture model (GMM). Numerical instability and convergence problems may arise in situations where the sample size is not much larger than the data dimensionality. In such low sample support (LSS) settings, the covariance matrix update in the EM-GMM algorithm may become singular or poorly conditioned, causing the algorithm to crash. On the other hand, in many signal processing problems, a priori information can be available indicating certain structures for different cluster covariance matrices. In this paper, we present a regularized EM algorithm for GMM-s that can make efficient use of such prior knowledge as well as cope with LSS situations. The method aims to maximize a penalized GMM likelihood where regularized estimation may be used to ensure positive definiteness of covariance matrix updates and shrink the estimators towards some structured target covariance matrices. We show that the theoretical guarantees of convergence hold, leading to better performing EM algorithm for structured covariance matrix models or with low sample settings.
An active inference model of car following: Advantages and applications
Wei, Ran, McDonald, Anthony D., Garcia, Alfredo, Markkula, Gustav, Engstrom, Johan, O'Kelly, Matthew
Driver process models play a central role in the testing, verification, and development of automated and autonomous vehicle technologies. Prior models developed from control theory and physics-based rules are limited in automated vehicle applications due to their restricted behavioral repertoire. Data-driven machine learning models are more capable than rule-based models but are limited by the need for large training datasets and their lack of interpretability, i.e., an understandable link between input data and output behaviors. We propose a novel car following modeling approach using active inference, which has comparable behavioral flexibility to data-driven models while maintaining interpretability. We assessed the proposed model, the Active Inference Driving Agent (AIDA), through a benchmark analysis against the rule-based Intelligent Driver Model, and two neural network Behavior Cloning models. The models were trained and tested on a real-world driving dataset using a consistent process. The testing results showed that the AIDA predicted driving controls significantly better than the rule-based Intelligent Driver Model and had similar accuracy to the data-driven neural network models in three out of four evaluations. Subsequent interpretability analyses illustrated that the AIDA's learned distributions were consistent with driver behavior theory and that visualizations of the distributions could be used to directly comprehend the model's decision making process and correct model errors attributable to limited training data. The results indicate that the AIDA is a promising alternative to black-box data-driven models and suggest a need for further research focused on modeling driving style and model training with more diverse datasets.