We are interested in the mechanisms by which individuals monitor and adjust their performance of simple cognitive tasks. We model a speeded discrimination task in which individuals are asked to classify a sequence of stimuli (Jones & Braver, 2001). Response conflict arises when one stimulus class is infrequent relative to another, resulting in more errors and slower reaction times for the infrequent class. How do control pro- cesses modulate behavior based on the relative class frequencies? We explain performance from a rational perspective that casts the goal of individuals as minimizing a cost that depends both on error rate and re- action time.

It appears that in constructing the motor commands to guide the arm toward a target, the brain relies on an internal model (IM) of the dynamics of the task that it learns through practice [1]. The IM is presumably a system that transforms a desired limb trajectory in sensory coordinates to motor commands. The motor commands in turn create the complex activation of muscles necessary to cause action. A major issue in motor control is to infer characteristics of the IM from the actions of subjects. Recently, we took a first step toward mathematically characterizing the IM's rep- resentation in the brain [2]. We analyzed the sequence of errors made by subjects on successive movements as they reached to targets while holding a robotic arm. The robot produced a force field and subjects learned to compensate for the field (presumably by constructing an IM) and eventually produced straight movements within the field. Our analysis sought to draw conclusions about the structure of the IM from the sequence of errors generated by the subjects.

We describe a computer system that provides a real-time musi(cid:173) cal accompaniment for a live soloist in a piece of non-improvised music for soloist and accompaniment. A Bayesian network is devel(cid:173) oped that represents the joint distribution on the times at which the solo and accompaniment notes are played, relating the two parts through a layer of hidden variables. The network is first con(cid:173) structed using the rhythmic information contained in the musical score. The network is then trained to capture the musical interpre(cid:173) tations of the soloist and accompanist in an off-line rehearsal phase. During live accompaniment the learned distribution of the network is combined with a real-time analysis of the soloist's acoustic sig(cid:173) nal, performed with a hidden Markov model, to generate a musi(cid:173) cally principled accompaniment that respects all available sources of knowledge.

Statistical learning and probabilistic inference techniques are used to in- fer the hand position of a subject from multi-electrode recordings of neu- ral activity in motor cortex. First, an array of electrodes provides train- ing data of neural firing conditioned on hand kinematics. We learn a non- parametric representation of this firing activity using a Bayesian model and rigorously compare it with previous models using cross-validation. Second, we infer a posterior probability distribution over hand motion conditioned on a sequence of neural test data using Bayesian inference. The learned firing models of multiple cells are used to define a non- Gaussian likelihood term which is combined with a prior probability for the kinematics.

The recent introduction of the'relevance vector machine' has effec(cid:173) tively demonstrated how sparsity may be obtained in generalised linear models within a Bayesian framework. Using a particular form of Gaussian parameter prior, 'learning' is the maximisation, with respect to hyperparameters, of the marginal likelihood of the data. This paper studies the properties of that objective func(cid:173) tion, and demonstrates that conditioned on an individual hyper(cid:173) parameter, the marginal likelihood has a unique maximum which is computable in closed form. It is further shown that if a derived'sparsity criterion' is satisfied, this maximum is exactly equivalent to'pruning' the corresponding parameter from the model.

We describe a method for computing provably exact maximum a poste- riori (MAP) estimates for a subclass of problems on graphs with cycles. The basic idea is to represent the original problem on the graph with cy- cles as a convex combination of tree-structured problems. A convexity argument then guarantees that the optimal value of the original problem (i.e., the log probability of the MAP assignment) is upper bounded by the combined optimal values of the tree problems. We prove that this upper bound is met with equality if and only if the tree problems share an opti- mal configuration in common. An important implication is that any such shared configuration must also be the MAP configuration for the original problem.

We establish a new hardness result that shows that the difficulty of plan- ning in factored Markov decision processes is representational rather than just computational. More precisely, we give a fixed family of fac- tored MDPs with linear rewards whose optimal policies and value func- tions simply cannot be represented succinctly in any standard parametric form. Previous hardness results indicated that computing good policies from the MDP parameters was difficult, but left open the possibility of succinct function approximation for any fixed factored MDP. Our result applies even to policies which yield a polynomially poor approximation to the optimal value, and highlights interesting connectionswith the com- plexity class of Arthur-Merlin games.

We present the bump mixture model, a statistical model for analog data where the probabilistic semantics, inference, and learning rules derive from low-level transistor behavior. The bump mixture model relies on translinear circuits to perform probabilistic infer- ence, and floating-gate devices to perform adaptation. This system is low power, asynchronous, and fully parallel, and supports vari- ous on-chip learning algorithms. In addition, the mixture model can perform several tasks such as probability estimation, vector quanti- zation, classification, and clustering. We tested a fabricated system on clustering, quantization, and classification of handwritten digits and show performance comparable to the E-M algorithm on mix- tures of Gaussians.

The information bottleneck (IB) method is an information-theoretic formulation, this method constructs for clustering problems. Given a joint distribution a new variable that are informative . Maximum likelihood (ML) of mixture models is a standard statistical about approach to clustering problems. In this paper, we ask: how are the two methods related? We define a simple mapping between the IB problem and the ML prob- lem for the multinomial mixture model.

We propose a dynamic Bayesian model for motifs in biopolymer se- quences which captures rich biological prior knowledge and positional dependencies in motif structure in a principled way. Our model posits that the position-specific multinomial parameters for monomer distribu- tion are distributed as a latent Dirichlet-mixture random variable, and the position-specific Dirichlet component is determined by a hidden Markov process. Model parameters can be fit on training motifs using a vari- ational EM algorithm within an empirical Bayesian framework. Varia- tional inference is also used for detecting hidden motifs. Our model im- proves over previous models that ignore biological priors and positional dependence.